No. 3 Kentucky takes on No. 14 Troy in a Midwest Region game that will punch a ticket to the Round of 32 for one of the two teams.
Cats Illustrated staff writers share their takes and predictions before the game.
Travis Graf: I know Kentucky fans are anxious about the game due to recent tournament failures, but there’s nothing on paper to warrant an upset today. Troy ranks 151st in offense in KenPom and 67th in defense. For reference, LSU ranked 135th and 66th in those same categories. Kentucky’s experience and age should have them more relaxed than in years past. Troy also has only one rotational player that shoots better than 35-percent from three. Kentucky plays a clean, efficient game and builds good momentum going into round two with a winning score of 85 to 68.
David Sisk: Troy is a team that doesn't score in bushels, but they do have a guard in Tayton Conerway who is a really-good mid-major, on-ball bucket getter. The Trojans will run a ton of ball screens, so Kentucky has to be ready for that. However, I don’t think they are ready for an SEC team. Kentucky will be too big. I look for Amari Williams and Andrew Carr to have good games. There will also be more looks for Koby Brea. This should be your normal 3/14 double digit win. Kentucky 82 Troy 67.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky may be the best offensive team that Troy has seen this year, but that doesn't mean the Wildcats are going to light the scoreboard up, necessarily. Troy did a good job of suppressing opponent scores even against the better teams they played. Their problem against those teams has been their inability to score enough points to keep pace. I think it's important for Kentucky to come out and play well in the first half. When you let a team like Troy hang around, their confidence starts to build and you start to get nervous. We saw it with Clemson against McNeese State yesterday as that first half went on. Kentucky needs to deal an early knockout blow. They'll score points. The issue is being locked in on the defensive end and not making anything easy for a team that isn't great on offense. As long as Troy doesn't go bonkers from outside, and it would be a surprise if they do given their season-long numbers, Kentucky should be okay. Cats 78, Trojans 67.
Jeff Drummond: There’s a certain level of pressure on Mark Pope and Kentucky entering a first-round game with a Troy squad that, on paper, should be a good matchup for the Wildcats. Pope is seeking his first NCAA Tournament win, and UK is looking to get past the first weekend for the first time since 2019. You might see that manifest itself in the first few minutes of this game. The key for UK is to not let it last long. They need to put Troy in a double-digit hole as early as possible and not let the underdog build confidence it can hang around. The Trojans do two things well from an analytic standpoint: steal the ball and offensive rebound. If Lamont Butler and Amari Williams play their games, I think that negates those areas Troy must have for an upset. Give me Kentucky 79, Troy 66
