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Published Nov 22, 2024
Staff Predictions
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Kentucky travels to Darrell K. Royal Stadium to take on the No. 3 Texas Longhorns this week in an historic game for the Wildcats and another big one for Steve Sarkisian's team, which is on a quest for a national championship.

Here are CI staff takes and predictions on the game according to the typical football format.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to be hopeful or optimistic about this game?

Jeff Drummond: Kentucky has clearly demonstrated that it approaches this type of game with a better mindset than others. You can make a case that the Cats’ three best performances have been against the three best teams they have played: a three-point win at No. 6 Ole Miss, a one-point loss to No. 1 Georgia, and a 28-18 loss to No. 7 Tennessee. I think Mark Stoops will have his guys playing with an edge on Saturday once again, and maybe Texas gets caught overlooking UK a bit with a big game looming against Texas A&M next week.

Travis Graf: Kentucky has kept the games with the big dogs closer than ones you’d somewhat expect them to win throughout this season, and even knocked one off. It’s an unfamiliar environment and everyone seems to have written off this Kentucky team, so maybe they come out high and punching above their weight early in the game, keeping things interesting. The Longhorns have had close calls with Vanderbilt and somewhat Arkansas as well in recent weeks.

Justin Rowland: Kentucky has played well against the best teams it has faced and it got Murray State as a rebound opportunity to stop the bleeding. Texas didn't look especially good against Arkansas. Both Arkansas and Vanderbilt took away the long ball and Quinn Ewers has struggled to hit on those anyway. Kentucky is accustomed to playing that kind of defense, so if the offense plays relatively mistake-free it's not inconceivable to think that it could be interesting after halftime. It's also possible Texas could be looking ahead to the renewed rivalry with Texas A&M the following week.

What are the main reasons for UK fans to be concerned?

Drummond: The Longhorns pass the eye test as one of the elite teams in the country as we inch closer to the highly anticipated 12-team playoff. They may be as balanced as anyone in the hunt for the national championship. The Texas defense is particularly strong, which is a big challenge for a UK offense that has struggled all season to put points on the board.

Graf: Texas is one of the best teams in the country and is more talented across the board, it would take the Longhorns having an off game to really expect the Cats to have a chance in this one. Texas has a 67-percent completion percentage throughout the season and they’ll take what Kentucky’s defense gives them rather than trying to force the ball downfield. The Longhorns have only given up more than 20 points twice this season, and Kentucky’s offense struggles to reach that number against much worse defenses.

Rowland: Texas doesn't really have any clear weaknesses for Kentucky to exploit. The pass defense is absolutely elite and going up against UK's passing offense, it's just tough to imagine the Cats getting much through the air. Is UK really cut out to play mistake-free on the level it would need to? We haven't seen a whole lot in the second half of the season to suggest that's likely. There are definitely reasons to believe this could set up as a trap game for Texas, and even Sark has mentioned this, but at the end of the day the Horns are still 20-point favorites.

What's your game prediction and who is a key player for Kentucky?

Drummond: Texas 26, Kentucky 13 - I think the Cats might keep this one closer than a lot of fans and national viewers expect, but in the end, Texas just has too much talent on both sides of the ball for UK to overcome. It would take Brock Vandagriff’s best game as a Cat and a big turnover margin to have a shot to pull the stunner.

Graf: Texas 31, Kentucky 17. Kentucky covers the spread and has a solid showing against one of the nation’s best, but once again, the offense doesn’t produce enough to give them a real chance.

Rowland: Texas 30, Kentucky 9. I think Kentucky will keep it close for a while, but persistent offensive struggles eventually cause the defense to start giving up bigger plays.

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