STAFF PICKS: Predictions for the Big Dance
March Madness is here, folks. The Cats Illustrated staff helps bring you down the home stretch to all the Thursday/Friday action with a roundtable discussion of key questions.
We'll discuss Kentucky at length in another roundtable, but first our tournament picks.
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Let's go region by region. Starting with the East what's your regional final (and winner), a darkhorse to watch and a team that's at serious risk of flaming out early?
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: I have Florida vs. Duke in my regional final with the Blue Devils going to the Final Four. Duke is going to go on a deep run and the sooner we all accept that the happier we will be the rest of March. I like the Gators because of their balance and will be in every game.
A darkhorse would be SMU. I'm a mid-major hater but SMU is the real deal this year and will take on the Blue Devils in the Sweet 16.
I'm not sold on Villanova. Yes, they're the defending champion but the Wildcats have a tough road. Wisconsin and Virginia Tech could give Villanova a tough game in the second round and we know Virginia could play them closely in the Sweet 16 if the Cavaliers get by the Gators. I expect Florida to beat Villanova but there are several other teams in the top pod could do the same.
Justin Rowland: I've got Villanova and Duke in the East final. This region sets up really well for a 1-2 matchup to get to the Final Four. I'm picking Villanova to beat Duke in that game. The Wildcats are one tough team and they'd hit enough shots to knock off the eight-loss Blue Devils.
I agree with T.J. about SMU as a solid dark horse because they're so tough to score on, but I'll pick a different one: South Carolina. They've got to get back to playing how they did earlier in the year, but if they face Duke in Greenville, S.C., and Sindarius Thornwell plays his best game, they could keep it close.
I think Baylor loses in one of the first two rounds and I think both Florida and Virginia are on upset watch against UNC-Wilmington and East Tennessee State, respectively. This bracket has several teams that aren't playing their best basketball.
Same for the West region: Regional final (and champion), Cinderella to watch and a team that loses earlier than expected.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: I have Notre Dame vs. Arizona with the Wildcats finally getting to Phoenix. The two best offensive teams in the West Regional will make it to the final.
Watch out for Vanderbilt. The Commodores have shooting and sound defense that will carry them by Gonzaga. Vanderbilt could also beat the winner of Notre Dame vs. West Virginia but that would be three consecutive difficult games.
Obviously I'm not sold on Gonzaga. There quality wins came in November and the first weekend of December. The teams they beat were banged up or not complete. Vanderbilt will be the best team they've played since the first weekend of December. Let that sink in and don't have Gonzaga going deep.
Justin Rowland: West Virginia against Arizona for a trip to the Final Four with Sean Miller's crew making it through to what are basically home games in the national semifinals. I realize some computer models give Gonzaga upwards of a 42-percent chance of winning this region, so they're the safe pick, but it's been a long time since they've played much good competition and, well, they usually stub their toe.
One dark horse for me in this region is Xavier. They rebounded, at least somewhat, from a six-loss stretch and played better at the end of the year. This is a team that has potential and I like Trevon Bluiett. I'm picking them to beat Maryland and then Florida State to reach the Sweet 16.
A vulnerable team in this bracket? Keep it with the threes and it's Florida State. They're not a great tournament team, year after year, and they aren't playing their best.
Now the Midwest: Same format.
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: The Jayhawks will take on the Cardinals in a (rock?) chalky Elite Eight. I don't think too highly of Kansas, or Louisville, but I'm not convinced there's a team that has the talent or depth to knockoff either KU or UofL. Once Kansas gets to the Sweet 16 the Jayhawks aren't losing in Kansas City. They had their mulligan in the Big XII Tournament.
It will be mostly chalk but don't sleep on Rhode Island. It's not because I think Rhode Island is great, but Creighton is a mess and Oregon is going to have an adjustment period dealing with a major loss.
Oregon would be the team that could potentially lose early in the tournament. Chris Boucher did a lot for the Ducks and it will take them some time to figure things out this weekend. But this will be a chalky region and ultimately the Ducks are upended in the Sweet 16.
Justin Rowland: Kansas-Oregon and the Ducks reach the Final Four. Before the season I picked Oregon to win the national championship and while their start and a recent injury to Chris Boucher have been less than ideal, I still like their athleticism and punch. I think they'll get to the Sweet 16 and then handle either Louisville or Michigan.
One team to watch out for would be Miami. They've not always been impressive this year, but they can match up, physically and athletically, and that would be an intriguing second round game against Kansas for me.
On upset watch? Louisville could have a tough second round game and Kansas is always an interesting first-weekend tournament team. This year's KU team could really be that given how many close calls they had this season.
How about Kentucky's South Region?
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: A Vegas rematch between UNC and Kentucky. UK has a tough draw but John Calipari's confidence has convinced me. He knows something we don't know about his team and I'm buying UK stock. However, North Carolina is the more complete team and will advance to the Final Four.
A darkhorse to watch is Winthrop. The Eagles have two great players and if they're on this weekend expect Winthrop to advance to the Sweet 16 to take on North Carolina.
Minnesota isn't a good team and the Gophers will lose in the first round. A five seed flaming out isn't the craziest thing in March Madness but Minnesota should have been an eight seed.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky over North Carolina. The theme here is I'm mostly forcing myself to stick with picks that I made earlier in the season (I've waffled between the Sweet 16 and Final Four on this year's UK team). I think the Cats avenge their early season loss to UCLA and then they match up well against the Tar Heels.
North Carolina is a vulnerable team because Justin Jackson is shooting poorly from outside and when Joel Berry leaves the game they become very, very average.
The dark horse in this bracket is Middle Tennessee. We know what they're capable of in the postseason and it's basically the same team. They could win two games.
Now that your Final Four is set, who wins the national semifinals and ultimately the national championship?
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Once Arizona gets to Phoenix it's going to be tough to beat the Wildcats but Duke just has too many weapons and the Blue Devils will play for their second championship in three years. Joining Duke in the championship is a familiar foe in North Carolina. ESPN is going to be unbearable but the Tar Heels are the best team in the country and they will crush Kansas in the Final Four.
North Carolina gets ACC Tournament revenge and beats Duke.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky over Oregon, Villanova over Arizona. That'll set up a Cats-Cats final and a coaching matchup between John Calipari and Jay Wright. I'm picking Villanova to win that game for their second consecutive national championship.
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