SEC Tournament Roundtable and Predictions
The SEC Tournament begins this week and it's Kentucky's only remaining opportunity to reach the Big Dance.
It's simple enough. Kentucky must win four games in four days.
The Wildcats have dominated the SEC Tournament historically but are the No. 8 seed with a Thursday game against Mississippi State. If UK defeats the Bulldogs, No. 1 seed Alabama awaits.
Here's what Cats Illustrated writers think about the tournament.
What team do you predict will win the SEC Tournament?
Jeff Drummond: I really like the way Arkansas is playing right now, although it appears that Alabama may have an easier bracket path than the Razorbacks. Eric Musselman has Arkansas rolling with eight straight wins, including a 15-point win over the Crimson Tide, and the Hogs haven't dropped a conference game since January 16. Moses Moody and Justin Smith are a terrific tandem, and Arkansas has several other offensive weapons that can hurt you on a given night. Plus, like Kentucky over the years, Arkansas just seems to have a knack for the SEC Tourney.
David Sisk: I'm going to say Alabama and Arkansas are 1 and 1A to win the Southeastern Conference Tournament. The Crimson Tide was clearly in the driver's seat with a 16-2 league record and a two and a half-game cushion. However, the Razorbacks are the hottest team heading into Nashville. They have won eight games in a row. Their last loss was in the Big 12/SEC Challenge to Oklahoma State. Go farther back and they have won eleven consecutive conference games. If these two teams meet the winner is anybody's guess. I am curious though how Nate Oats' philosophy plays out in postseason play with all of the three-pointers over three days and against thorough scouting reports.
Travis Graf: Alabama. Coming into the tournament with a 16-2 record in conference play, the Crimson Tide have shown that they can knock off anyone that stands in their way. They’re a well-balanced team that can have any one of five guys go off for 20-plus points in a given game. Alabama comes into the tournament ranked 5th in 3-point attempts made per game. If they’re hitting around that mark this week, they’ll be tough to beat.
Justin Rowland: I'll have to go with Arkansas, the team that has won 11 consecutive SEC games. In that stretch, the Razorbacks have blown some teams out and won some close contests. Winning is a habit and they're riding high. It has been 21 years since Arkansas won the SEC Tournament and I'll call for that drought to end. The Hogs have exceptional balance with four guys averaging 12 points or more in SEC games and several others capable of contributing. This team is top-30 nationally in adjusted offense and defense (KenPom) and if they meet Alabama for the championship -- a game many will anticipate -- it'll be a track meet.
Who is your darkhorse team to watch?
Drummond: Ole Miss as the 6 seed is playing pretty well right now, winner of seven of its last nine games. Kentucky got a close look at that during its losing trip to Oxford last week. The Rebels have a fantastic lead guard in Devontae Shuler, which is always important at this time of year, and they can muck things up with their stingy defense. Kermit Davis has a good track record of having teams ready to play in the postseason during his career.
Sisk: Picking a darkhorse is always a crapshoot. The same reasons given for one team can basically be used for everybody. But I'm choosing Missouri. For starters, they are on the easier side of the bracket in my opinion. I'm not on the LSU bandwagon, so I think the only team they have to play uphill against through the semi-finals is Arkansas. Florida is another team that I like at the five seed. They actually have a better shot to go deeper than Missouri in my opinion. They would get Tennessee on Friday whereas the Tigers will have to deal with the second-seeded Razorbacks. But the Gators side throws a brutal schedule at them on each day. Missouri was borderline top ten at one time. They have a proven backcourt and physical inside play. If they can beat Arkansas they will get to Sunday.
Graf: Tennessee. Is it weird to call the number four seed in the tournament a dark horse? I’m not for sure, but at the end of the day, the Vols have been very disappointing this season considering the preseason hype. At just 9-7 in conference play, they’ve often been looked over this season. At the same time, they have the pieces of a team that could be primed to make a run this weekend.
Rowland: I'm going to say Ole Miss, because the Rebels are 7-2 over the last month plus a few days and finished 10-8 in the league in spite of starting 1-4 and then 3-6 in league play. But I don't feel good about this pick. It's hard to trust a team that shoots so poorly (29.7%) from three-point range. It's hard to win a tournament when you just don't get hot more often than that. I wouldn't be saying Ole Miss if I allowed myself to pick much higher-seeded teams. I'm saying dark horse because I think they're outside the top tier of contenders but above the group at the bottom that doesn't have much of any chance.
What kind of chances do you give Kentucky?
Drummond: I don't think Kentucky's chances are very good simply because the Cats haven't shown they can string together four straight wins all season long. Even the biggest optimist in Big Blue Nation would recognize that as a major red flag going into the postseason. John Calipari's club has shown it is capable of beating anyone in Nashville, and I'm sure he'll be playing the "everyone is doubting us" underdog card in the UK locker room, but a potential quarterfinal matchup with regular-season league champ Alabama looms on Friday. If the Cats pull off that upset, will they have enough left in the tank to beat two more quality teams?
Sisk: Kentucky's road to the championship is Murderer's Row as far as SEC play is concerned. Their previous matchup with Mississippi State went into overtime, and I'm sure the Bulldogs will be chomping at the bit. I do like Kentucky's chances there. Then they are rewarded with top-seeded Alabama. I think they can defend the three-point line and have a chance. The key is going to be closing out in the final four minutes that has been an enemy this season. Then most likely comes the winner of Florida/Tennessee, and then a strong team from the other side of the bracket. I just don't think the schedule maker did them any favors. Their chances are minute at well under ten percent.
Graf: Kentucky always has a chance to win the SEC tournament and history backs that up. The ‘Cats have won 31 total conference titles out of 59 since the league was formed. However, this year’s Kentucky team might be one of the worst that the school has had during those 59 years as well. Kentucky would need BJ Boston’s performance from Saturday against South Carolina to carry over throughout the course of the week, while Davion Mintz channels his inner-Steph Curry again.
Rowland: 5-10% chance, which is probably a bit high ordinarily for an 8 seed. I'll give them those odds because of the way the defense has carried and the strength of the performance against South Carolina. Maybe the team rallies to carry the program's banner at an event that has been dominated by UK in the past. But realistically, this team has not won four games in a row all season. To win four in a row in four days when their conference record is under .500 for the year would be improbable to say the least. It definitely wouldn't be the wildest thing to happen in college basketball this year though.
Who are some players that you believe are capable of taking over the tournament?
Drummond: One typically thinks of guards when it comes to this storyline. One of the best examples in recent history was Kemba Walker putting a rather pedestrian UConn team on his back and carrying the Huskies to the 2011 national championship against all odds. The co-favorites entering the SEC Tournament, Alabama and Arkansas, have no shortage of good candidates. The Razorbacks' Moses Moody would probably be my top pick entering the SEC Tourney, but keep an eye out for LSU's free-wheeling gunner, Cameron Thomas, too.
For Kentucky fans, if you're holding out hope of a miracle run through Nashville, Davion Mintz is showing some signs of late of wanting that kind of responsibility. He's been on fire lately, and the Cats will need him to stay that way if they want to keep their season rolling.
Sisk: The postseason is the time for players to shine and become legends. There are several who have that in them. Alabama has several who fit that bill, but I like Herb Jones. Not only is he a 6-foot-8 man who can rebound and protect the rim, he is also a 45% three-point shooter and can be an outstanding pro. John Petty is another outstanding Tide player. Arkansas has the shot to go deep, and Marcus Moody is the straw that stirs that drink. He is the only Hawg in the top fifteen in the league in scoring.
LSU's Cameron Thomas is another. The freshman was easily this season's league-leading scorer at 23.1 points per game. Although I am not sold on his team, he and Trendon Watford provide as much of a one-two punch as you will see anywhere.
Graf: Anytime a player shoots 17 shots per game — that average includes a random 1 shot performance from earlier in the year — there’s a good chance that they could ride a hot streak for multiple games at a time. That’s exactly what LSU’s freshman Guard Cameron Thomas is already doing heading into the tournament, scoring 20-plus points in his last 10 games. The former five-star is now averaging over 23 points per game on the season.
Davion Mintz is a guy who leaves it all on the court every single time he plays. The Creighton transfer is averaging 16.8 points over his last five games, knocking down 20 threes in that same timeframe. It’s up in the air as to whether or not Mintz will be back next season for the ‘Cats, but there’s no doubt that he’s giving it his all this week just in case this is his last hurrah.
Rowland: You've got to look at Arkansas freshman Moses Moody, who has been playing out of his mind lately. The 6'6 Little Rock native has scored 28 points in each of Arkansas' last two games and he hasn't scored less than 13 points in any of the Hogs' last nine games. What makes him tough to stop is Arkansas has other guys who can hurt you.
But Cameron Thomas is obviously the guy that stands out here: 23.1 points per game as a freshman for LSU. He has scored 21 points or more in 21 consecutive games for LSU. He's shooting a lot to get those numbers but is generally shooting well enough. Thomas is also camping out at the free-throw line.