Scenarios for Kentucky's upcoming season

Every college football season is unpredictable. We may have an idea of what games Kentucky is more likely to win and what games would best be characterized as upsets, but nobody really knows what's going to happen.

Even when we talk about ceilings and floors, we're projecting. We don't really know. We can make educated comments or appeal to history or common sense, but there are many potential scenarios for how the upcoming year could play out.

Here are a few such potential scenarios, and what we'd be saying in the aftermath.

Things break the wrong way

We'll start with the worst situation imaginable: Things break the wrong way and Kentucky loses all or many of the games that fans will be getting excited about. We're talking about not only the games against the four best on-paper teams in the country, but also Kentucky struggling in games against the likes of South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, and Louisville.

That would be a major disappointment for a team that returns so much on defense. And there's enough on offense, it seems, that this shouldn't happen. If it does Stoops would still be around next year but after a couple of 7-win seasons when fans hoped for more, it wouldn't be the best atmosphere.

The injury bug bites

Kentucky may actually be more positioned to deal with a rash of injuries this year than most others. For the first time in a while the Wildcats are building some actual college-level depth in the quarterback room. If something were to happen to Vandagriff and Kentucky were to put Gavin Wimsatt under center he's probably better positioned to still lead UK to a postseason berth than any other backup in quite some time. At receiver there's more depth than there has usually been. Maybe up front on the offensive line is where Kentucky needs to stay healthy, or on the defensive line where they are already without some players. If Kentucky sees multiple starters go down on the OL or DL, that'd be trouble. But otherwise, you could still see this team reaching the postseason.

The 7-5 that leaves most fans wanting

What if Kentucky finishes 7-5 for a third regular season in a row? If Kentucky loses five games then that means they probably won more of those "tough call" matchups than they lost, but who is actually getting excited about 7-5 at this point in the program's life cycle? Of course, you need to do enough so that boosters and fans continue to give in the NIL era. If UK goes 7-5 against this schedule that probably means the Cats are a solid team. Not a top-25 team perhaps, but not far away from that conversation. The bottom wouldn't have fallen out, but you'd have to wonder if UK really capitalized when it has this much talent on paper.

The Brock Breakout that makes 2025 very interesting

What if Brock Vandagriff comes in and has a better season than anybody anticipates? What if he's more first year Will Levis than Devin Leary? If that happens it probably means the players around Vandagriff played fairly well, and it could be a breakout year. Just as interesting is what it would mean in the lead-up to the 2025 season. If UK returns a former five-star from UGA who puts together a great first year in Lexington the Cats would generate a lot of attention in the offseason. The big thing is a Vandagriff breakout would give UK to a chance to attract quite a bit of talent from the portal in the offseason.

The most likely 8-4 anyone could imagine

Whether 8-5 is the most likely scenario for this team is anybody's guess. But the most chalk 8-4 imaginable would clearly mean losses to UGA, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee with wins against the rest. Of course it's easy to imagine UK pulling an upset in one of those games and losing another (I picked them to lose to South Carolina but beat Texas, for instance), but this would be the most obvious path to 8-4. That would still leave some saying Mark Stoops doesn't win big games, but how many fans would really get upset about a season that includes wins against Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, and Louisville? Eight regular season wins would be the third most that Stoops has won in a season, and it wouldn't put UK in the playoff conversation but there would be a lot of positive, memorable moments.

What if Kentucky pulls a major upset?

What if Kentucky is able to beat one of those four top tier teams on its schedule? UK beating Georgia or Texas would obviously take the college football world by storm. It would be huge publicity for the program and one of the biggest games of the year. We've seen UK match up with UGA in recent years and that seems like a tall order especially after last season in Athens. Texas gets Texas A&M the week after the Horns see UK in Austin and sometimes there are Senior Day slow starts. The last time UK was at Ole Miss they had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter, and UK has been close to beating Josh Heupel two times in three attempts (granted both were in Lexington). If UK wins one of those games it would be a clear signature win for Stoops. It would also probably be a positive bellwether for the rest of the season. The bitter pill to swallow right now is that, even if UK were to win one of those games, there are still several other challenging games that you have to hope they don't stub their toe. Pulling a major upset would give Kentucky a chance to sneak into the back end of the playoff conversation if the Cats take care of the rest of their business.

Deone & D lead Kentucky to the CFP

What if Deone Walker and that defensive unit are so dominant it looks like 2018 all over again? There's talent in the secondary, like that '18 team had. There are stars at every level of the defense and not a lot of teams in college football have that. What if Kentucky wins nine or ten regular season games and makes in to the College Football Playoff? Obviously it would be the biggest deal for UK football since at least its SEC Championship in 1977. It would redefine what's possible for UK football moving forward and Stoops would be in line for yet another raise and extension. Of course, for this to come to fruition the offense needs to be at a certain level even in the event of a stellar defensive year.

What if Louisville beats Kentucky?

Nobody here wants to see that happen, but if the Cats lose to Louisville in the regular season finale, be prepared for a very different kind of offseason. The tone and tenor of football coverage in the Commonwealth and beyond would change immediately. True or not, that's what would happen when Kentucky has dominated the series for as long as it has now. And there's no question that Kentucky fans would take it personally after the last two seasons didn't go quite as well as many hoped.