Rowland: Game-by-game predictions for UK in 2024

Every year Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland takes a stab at making predictions for Kentucky's upcoming games.

We'll revisit and update these predictions weekly during the season to account for injuries, momentum, trends, and whatever we learn, but here's a snapshot glance at his expectations for 2024 at this point in fall camp.

Kentucky 38, Southern Miss 16 (1-0)

Kentucky gets off to a good start against a Southern Miss program that is not in the best shape it has been in. The question for me is whether Kentucky will look sharp on offense and march up and down the field enough to inspire confidence or if it will be ugly with splash plays by the playmakers. What you're looking for here is Brock Vandagriff's comfort level in the pocket. You also want to see the offensive line play sound and avoid a lot of miscues and communication errors. The defense should be good enough to keep the Cats off upset alert at home Week 1.

South Carolina 22, Kentucky 19 (1-1)

Something tells me this game is going to be messy. South Carolina is strong up the middle so it could be difficult to run against the Gamecocks. They've won this game the last two years and are coming in with a very different approach, a more run-heavy, ball control emphasis. The Gamecocks always play a brutal schedule so this game is key for both teams. This game will be circled as one of the most important games on the calendar for both teams so everybody's coming in with a chip. Fans will be expecting a win here but I think it comes down to LaNorris Sellers and Brock Vandagriff, and perhaps the run game by both QBs.

Georgia 42, Kentucky 20 (1-2)

The Bulldogs are still on another level. It won't be as bad as it was last year in Athens. Homefield counts for something. But we've seen that when UGA is at this level it's best to keep expectations in check. They seem to be upset proof as well with depth at quarterback, a deep and strong offensive line, and another elite defensive unit.

Kentucky 31, Ohio 17 (2-2)

Kentucky gets back into the win column after some excitement has dissipated. There's enough talent here to overcome any emotional hangover from the Georgia game. In that respect the schedule represents an improvement in that there's an easier opponent after the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss 28, Kentucky 27 (2-3)

I have no reason to believe that Ole Miss is going to win this game by a lot. We saw Kentucky here in 2022 with a real chance to win the game. The Rebels are going to be very difficult to slow down offensively but these teams seem to play very close games almost whenever they get together. My expectation is that once again the Cats will have the Rebels on the ropes in Oxford, but I'll go with the home team that has a little more firepower. This is one of Kentucky's best chances for a season-defining signature win and I could see it going either way.

Kentucky 33, Vanderbilt 14 (3-3)

Clark Lea is relying a lot on an infusion of mental and athletic talent from NMSU but that won't be enough to save him this year in the SEC. Maxwell Hairston jump-started Kentucky in this game a year ago and once again the Kentucky defense will dominate the Commodores.

Kentucky 20, Florida 17 (4-3)

This series has settled into something of a pattern recently. Florida doesn't threaten Kentucky too much offensively. Brad White has done really well in this series and that should carry. Setting this game later in the season after, presumably, more ups-and-downs is a variable. It's also in the Swamp so this is a true toss-up game. But just as I'm going with South Carolina because of the Gamecocks' momentum in the series lately, that's why I'm picking Kentucky to beat Florida for its biggest win of the season to that point.

Kentucky 21, Auburn 16 (5-3)

Once again, another SEC game that could go either way. Hugh Freeze may eventually get the Tigers turned around but in Lexington, Auburn should have trouble moving the ball and scoring against Kentucky's defense. Payton Thorne does have a big experience advantage over Vandagriff, but this is later in the season when that could matter less. This is a game that Kentucky really needs to win if the program is in the position fans believe that it is. At home against a rebuilding Auburn team that isn't quite there yet needs to be a win and it will be.

Tennessee 34, Kentucky 20 (5-4)

While Kentucky won in Neyland in 2020, the series has not been favorable since Josh Heupel got to Rocky Top. The Vols have bested the Cats twice in close games on the road and there was that ugly trip to Knoxville when Will Levis threw three picks the last time here. Kentucky has had a hard time containing Tennessee's offense when it matters so you have to ask if it's just a difficult matchup. Nico Iamaleava doesn't have a Jalin Hyatt but on the road you can't help but consider history in this matchup, and I do believe he's going to be a very good quarterback for them this year.

Kentucky 52, Murray State 7 (6-4)

This is Kentucky's final gimmie game of the year. Whether they're crisp or ugly, the outcome should be the same. The backups will get plenty of run and we should see a good amount of Gavin Wimsatt or whoever else Bush Hamdan wants to look at behind center.

Kentucky 31, Texas 30 (7-4)

Here's the shocker pick of the year and where Kentucky makes up for its loss to South Carolina. We saw Texas get to the College Football Playoff last year but the Longhorns still had some close calls in the Big XII. Coming after a game that doesn't put too much strain on the roster against Murray State, Kentucky goes on the road and the defense forces enough turnovers and stops to allow an opportunistic offense to pull a huge upset that impacts the sport's playoff picture. The Longhorns will be looking ahead to a very emotional game against Texas A&M and on Senior Day in Austin the Cats pull a shocker.

Kentucky 27, Louisville 20 (8-4)

I said last year that this would not be an easy game anymore. I still think Kentucky will have the advantage more often than not in the series because it's just easier to build SEC depth as an SEC program. The Cards should be a pretty balanced, well-rounded team but we know that Kentucky gets up for this game year after year. That coupled with the overall talent and the game being in Lexington is enough for me to call for them to extend this series streak.