Rowland: Game-by-game predictions for UK football in 2018

When I've been asked to predict Kentucky's win total in 2018, I've usually demurred and fallen back on something vague. There's a reason for that. I could see this team winning eight or nine games and I could see them winning four or five. I'm not sure which scenario is more likely, and that's why I ultimately split the difference.

Predicting the outcomes of games weeks before the season itself even begins might be the height of useless prognosticating, but you'd be surprised how many people love reading it (and you're still reading, right?).

So here we go: My (subject to change) picks (which will probably change when we make pregame picks during the regular season) for each of UK's games in 2018.

9/1/18: Kentucky 27, Central Michigan 20 (1-0, 0-0)

This isn't a vintage Chippewa team, with a new starting quarterback and some questions to answer. But CMU is a program that can play a Power Five program respectably. Given that Kentucky is breaking in a new quarterback itself and will be working on its own identity, and the fact that Mark Stoops' teams haven't exactly created a lot of breathing room in recent history, the Wildcats won't beat the spread as a solid favorite but do start 1-0 barring a barrage of turnovers. UK will win, but the fans will be somewhere between restless and concerned.

9/8/18: Kentucky 24, Florida 20 (2-0, 1-0)

Mark Stoops' teams have played Florida tougher than those of any other Kentucky coach in modern times even as the streak has persisted. Last year I picked Kentucky to win this game and was promptly reminded that it was a bad idea. It is once again a bad idea to pick Kentucky to win this game, but I have a lot of questions about the Gators especially on offense. It's also not the kind of throwback Florida defense that will overwhelm a physical UK offense that should at least be able to run the ball.

9/15/18: Kentucky 38, Murray State 24 (3-0, 1-0)

Kentucky should roll in this game but because it's played after the game against Florida the Wildcats will either be deflated after another loss to Florida or, as I've picked, euphoric and unfocused after breaking that streak. Still, UK's talent, experience and homefield edge make me more confident about this game's outcome than any other on the schedule.

9/22/18: Mississippi State 35, Kentucky 20 (3-1, 1-1)

When I look at this Mississippi State team on paper I'm thoroughly impressed. That defensive front is nasty, there's experience and talent at quarterback, and Joe Moorhead has stepped into a great situation. He appears to be the perfect coach to capitalize on what Dan Mullen built in Starkville. This game won't be the blowout it was last year, but I would have a very hard time picking Kentucky to beat the team that I think is second-best in the West.

9/29/18: Kentucky 21, South Carolina 20 (4-1, 2-1)

The Cats make it five in a row against South Carolina. Nobody will say it on the record, but folks are ticked off that the Gamecocks are getting so much publicity while Kentucky has won the head-to-head four years in a row. I understand the hype for South Carolina and I'm picking them third in the East, because they've fared better against opponents outside of this series, but UK matches up well with Will Muschamp's team and runs the ball well enough at home to keep USC out of sorts.

10/6/18: Texas A&M 38, Kentucky 21 (4-2, 2-2)

I feel like this game will either be a close Kentucky win or a comfortable Texas A&M win. It will come down to which team controls the tempo. Texas A&M should have a pretty explosive offense so Kentucky's margin for error in this game will probably not be huge.

10/20/18: Kentucky 30, Vanderbilt 20 (5-2, 3-2)

Kentucky gets a bye after that trip to College Station and that sets the Cats up nicely for when the Commodores travel to Kroger Field. UK is the better team, Vanderbilt has a lot of questions to answer going into a decisive year for Derek Mason, and there's a reason the 'Dores are the popular choice to finish last in the East. There is no excuse for Kentucky to lose this game given the way the schedule sets up.

10/27/18: Kentucky 35, Missouri 31 (6-2, 4-2)

Missouri is a little bit of a trendy pick in the East. If South Carolina is the media darling then Missouri is a bit of a popular dark horse selection. There is no doubt this will be an explosive offense. But, as with South Carolina, Kentucky has matched up well with the Tigers in recent years and even on the road they should be able to push Barry Odom's team off the ball. Kentucky matches up athletically.

11/3/18: Georgia 41, Kentucky 17 (6-3, 4-3)

Fans always ask why their team isn't at the point where they never get blown out but that really shouldn't be the case. The best teams in the country have a tendency to blow a lot of teams out. Surprises happen but they're surprises for a reason. Jake Fromm has an embarrassment of riches around him even with UGA's losses and Kirby Smart has already built a monster that's head and shoulders better than any other program in the East.

11/10/18: Tennessee 18, Kentucky 17 (6-4, 4-4)

Kentucky's SEC finale comes in the 10th game of the season in Knoxville, where the program hasn't won a game in a very long time. Tennessee has some problem areas on paper this year and Jeremy Pruitt wasn't the Vols' first choice, but I'll call for the Vols to eek one out in a game they will need in order to reach bowl eligibility.

11/17/18: Kentucky 36, Middle Tennessee 27 (7-4, 4-4)

Middle Tennessee should have an offense that's capable of putting points on the board but SEC depth and power prevail and allow the Cats to survive the upset bid and win the last game they "should win" on paper.

11/24/18: Louisville 30, Kentucky 27 (7-5, 4-4)

Jawon Pass has plenty of weapons around him on offense and the Cardinals offense will be better than a lot of people are expecting it to be. They do have a Brian VanGorder defense and I'll never trust those. This is a close game on paper and one that could go either way, but I think UofL's more explosive offense and home field advantage are the factors that lead me to lean their way picking this game so far out.