Rowland: Final UK and CFB Preseason Predictions
It's been a long offseason and over the course of it I've found myself feeling quite differently about UK football in 2021, depending on when you might have asked for my opinion.
Even though you're not necessarily asking for those opinions now, I'm going to share them. We're two days away from the return of Wildcat football and we've got a lot of ground to cover.
Final W/L Prediction: 9-3
In a recent column about bold predictions one of my takes was that Kentucky will finish 9-3. That's significantly better than the 7-5 that I originally expected for them. It's not me getting caught up in the annual hype machine. This is a program that has added a lot of talent via transfer. Half the staff has turned over. A number of players are currently out. It's been an eventful ride since early in the offseason.
I think Kentucky will be favored in probably seven or eight games. They will not be favored against Florida, Georgia, or LSU. They will be favored in all four non-conference games and against Vanderbilt. They are probably going to be a favorite against rebuilding Tennessee and they will be against South Carolina.
That leaves Missouri and Mississippi State, which I believe are the two biggest toss-ups on the schedule.
Given that, 9-3 might seem a bit bullish. I think they're going to have the Missouri game circled and it's in Lexington. Mississippi State is probably the hardest game for me to call this far in advance because I have no clue what kind of progress Mike Leach will have made. Sometimes in his coaching history the light just goes on at an unpredictable time and his teams turn a corner.
This schedule sets up really well for Kentucky. Quarterback and receiver play have been the biggest things holding UK back in recent years and I believe they're going to be much improved in those areas. The defense is going to be at least solid. That should be enough to make a lot of noise when you consider the program has as solid a foundation and as much stability as most others in the league.
In addition to improvements at QB and WR as well as the manageable schedule, I'm more confident that Kentucky can get quality edge play with JJ Weaver likely to be a contributor. That's a big question that would be answered with him. Cornerback depth appears to be a serious issue especially with those players out but I'm not sure if the opponents on UK's schedule are especially prepared to take advantage of that.
Stat Predictions
These are my rough predictions for player and team stats.
Will Levis: 57% completions, 2,500 yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Chris Rodriguez: 1,180 yards, 12 touchdowns
Wan'Dale Robinson: 1,000 all-purpose yards
Josh Ali: 600 yards receiving
Points per game (points allowed per game): 28 PPG (25 PPG)
Kentucky's defense will be middle of the pack in the SEC but because of offensive improvements and the staff's ability to scheme and eliminate big plays this will be good enough for a good season.
Rowland's CFB Preseason Top 25
1. Alabama - The Tide loses so much -- more than 70 offensive touchdowns. No other program could sustain those losses and hope to contend for a title. The title picture is pretty open this year compared to some other seasons but you can't go wrong erring with Alabama. Their floor is always higher than any other team's.
2. Georgia - I'm not thrilled about Kirby Smart in big games because of his conservative style but JT Daniels is a big QB upgrade and this team is loaded. Win or lose against Clemson, they'll be in the mix for the playoff and this could be Smart's best team yet.
3. Oklahoma - Spencer Rattler went through some freshman growing pains early last season but rallied the Sooners to win eight straight to end the year. There are some losses around him but the offense is going to be fantastic and the defense has been trending in the right direction and fast for two straight years. With Alabama replacing so many players this is a prime opportunity for Lincoln Riley.
4. Ohio State - The Buckeyes are breaking in a new quarterback but Ryan Day is going to mold someone there and the receiving talent is off the charts. Ohio State has to replace more starters than almost any other team in this preseason top-25 but they also recruit extremely well and they're always going to be an interesting team under Day.
5. Clemson - Clemson's going to have a fantastic defensive line and DJ Uiagalelei looks like he's going to be a great quarterback one day. I'm not a huge fan of pairing a freshman quarterback with a pretty young offensive line. That gives me some pause but the overall talent and Dabo Swinney's track record means they are going to be in the mix.
6. Texas A&M - Jimbo Fisher has quietly assembled one of the nation's best rosters. There isn't as much flash that jumps out and catches your attention as with the teams ranked above but they are solid across the board and deep. In another division they'd be a prime playoff contender and still may be.
7. Wisconsin - It's easy to justify having the Badgers in this position. They return most of a defense that will be one of the best in the nation and you know they'll push you around when they have the ball. What could be different about Wisconsin now is quarterback Graham Mertz could take them to the next level on offense.
8. Iowa State - The Cyclones are legit. They return about 20 starters depending on how you count. That includes QB Brock Purdy, a 1,600 yard back, and their top 20 (!) tacklers on defense from a team that went 9-3 and beat Oregon 34-17 in the Fiesta Bowl. After dropping the season opener last year ISU's only losses were by three to then-No. 6 Oklahoma State on the road and by six to OU in the Big 12 title game.
9. North Carolina - Sam Howell is a legit Heisman contender and while he has to replace some outstanding skill talent around him, the overall talent level hast soared under Mack Brown and the defense should take a big step forward
10. Notre Dame - Brian Kelly has brought the Irish to the point where they're going to be relevant most years even if they're not quite at the level of a few other teams at the top.
11. USC - Clay Helton has quietly survived here. Not only survived, but kept USC toward of the top of the Pac-12 pecking order. I like the schedule here and with a few things going right this team could surprise as a playoff contender.
12. Washington - As with USC, I really like the schedule here. QB Dylan Morris is still young but has been promising. There are all-conference caliber players at just about every spot on the field.
13. Cincinnati - Simple as this: Luke Fickell has brought the Bearcats to the point where they are just going to handle most of the teams they play. It will probably be a surprise to see Cincinnati anywhere other than in the top-20 so long as he's there considering who they play against.
14. LSU - Ed Orgeron went from winning a national championship to 5-5. You don't see that happen at Alabama, Ohio State, or Clemson after a title. QB depth is iffy but there's a whole lot of talent on both sides of the ball including on both lines. But the West is going to be an unforgiving gauntlet so leave room for a floor that dips.
15. Penn State - Last year Penn State started 0-5 before winning its final four games against teams that weren't very good. It was a strange season. Sean Clifford needs to take the next step at quarterback but there's a lot of hype around this very deep team.
16. Utah - The Utes return almost everyone and are just one year removed from winning 20 games over the 2018 and 2019 seasons. They played in the Pac-12 title game in both of those seasons. You know the defense is going to be stout and Charlie Brewer transferring in from Baylor to play QB should be a big upgrade there.
17. Florida - There's going to be a step back here. The improvement on defense isn't going to fully offset the inevitable regression on offense, but if quarterback is a question then Dan Mullen is the right coach to have.
18. Oregon - This doesn't look like a team that's going to compete for a national championship and the schedule is very tough with road trips to Ohio State, Washington, UCLA, and Utah. But the Ducks do have more talent than the teams ranked below them and don't have many glaring holes.
19. Iowa - The Hawkeyes are going to win between eight and ten regular season games. You can just about take that to the bank recently under Kirk Ferentz. The schedule has some sneaky difficult games but Iowa always wins their share. The formula will be familiar here.
20. Kentucky - The Cats have been to five straight bowls, winning three straight, on the back of solid defense and physical football. There's more turnover here than some other places but that might not be bad with several high impact transfers. The offense will be more balanced, the defense won't break, and the schedule is as favorable as it gets in the SEC.
21. Texas - Steve Sarkisian looks like a good hire on the surface. Rolling with a young QB is always dicey but there's talent on offense and the Horns could be favored in 10 games.
22. Ole Miss - The defense should improve but it won't be the reason they're ranked here. Matt Corral is a phenomenal talent and that offense is one of the very few best in the country.
23. Miami - I'm always a bit slow to buy into the Hurricanes because they have such a track record of being "flimsy", looking good but struggling to respond to adversity. Nevertheless this team returns almost everyone on both sides of the ball and D'Eriq King is one of the country's better quarterbacks. We'll see how they respond to a rude awakening against Alabama in Week 1.
24. NC State - Dave Doeren has quietly built a nice foundation in Raleigh and the Wolfpack will have a good offense with a healthy QB Devin Leary. heirAlmost all the top players on offense and defense return from a solid squad.
25. Boston College - Not sold on the defense here but what Jeff Hafley did in one season during a COVID year was impressive. This will be an explosive passing game and the program has a lot of forward momentum.
SEC Standing Predictions
East
1. UGA
2. UF
3. UK
4. Mizzou
5. Tennessee
6. South Carolina
7. Vanderbilt
West
1. Alabama
2. A&M
3. LSU
4. Ole Miss
5. Auburn
6. Mississippi State
7. Arkansas
Playoff Predictions
Alabama over Ohio State
Georgia over Oklahoma
Alabama over Georgia for Nick Saban's 7th national championship with the Tide