Roundtable: UK-Louisville Predictions

The Governor's Cup rivalry will be renewed on Saturday with Louisville traveling to Kroger Field with a matchup against Kentucky. The Wildcats are slightly favored over the Cardinals.

Here are Cats Illustrated takes and predictions.

What are the main reasons for optimism if you're a Kentucky fan going into this game?

Jeff Drummond: Kentucky comes into this year’s Governor’s Cup game relatively healthy after running the unforgiving gauntlet of SEC football. That includes possibly the most sturdy version of quarterback Will Levis since the season began. We saw signs of him being willing and able to run the ball last week against Georgia, and that was a big factor in last year’s rout of the Cards. Louisville also has to deal with a battering ram in the form of Chris Rodriguez, whose running style is counter to some of their defensive strengths. I like the matchup between Brad White’s UK defense and the UofL offense. The Cards haven’t seen much defense in the ACC, so this should be a challenge for them to put up enough points to win.

David Sisk: Louisville quarterback, Malik Cunningham, is questionable for the game. Brock Domann is not the same kind of threat. He went just 12 of 25 for 153 yards versus North Carolina State last week. Kentucky has also dominated this series in the Scott Satterfield era at Louisville. Finally, Kentucky may not have had the season its fans had hoped for, but they are battle tested in the SEC. They have the 19th best defense in the country in yards allowed despite the 14th toughest schedule. The Cardinals can’t say that. Finally, the game is in Lexington.

Justin Rowland: Kentucky comes to play in this series. We've seen a methodical, impressive, businesslike approach from Kentucky in the Governor's Cup three meetings in a row so Mark Stoops know what he's doing leading up to this game. You have to imagine the players also have a lot of confidence. Then there's the fact that this is Will Levis' last game in a Kentucky uniform and you know he's going to be dialed in.

We saw a solid performance by Kentucky against Georgia, and with Vanderbilt beating Florida that has to change how you view the loss to the Commodores at least a little bit. Things may never have been as good as fans hoped, but they might not be as bad as everyone feared a couple of weeks ago.

What are the main reasons for concern?

Drummond: Louisville looks like a much-improved team to the one we saw at the start of the season. You have to give a lot of credit to Satterfield & Co. for holding things together and getting the most of that team. They’ll come to Lexington with a lot of confidence. For the first time in years, the Cards may have an advantage with their front seven against the UK offensive line. That’s likely to be the key matchup in Saturday’s game, and it may give UofL a shot to end its losing skid in the rivalry game. If the Cats cannot get their ground game going, it plays to the Cards’ strength of rushing the passer and UK’s weakness of pass protection. Kentucky’s kicking game also remains a mess, and that could loom large in what should be a close, low-scoring game.

Sisk: Coach Satterfield thinks Cunningham might play, and if he does they will have a different offensive look. We all know about Kentucky’s offensive struggles, and Louisville is giving up less than 20 points per game themselves. There is a wide belief that their defensive front will apply lots of pressure to Will Levis. The main concern for Big Blue Nation is probably momentum. UK is trending in the wrong direction with two straight losses, and three of the last four. Louisville, on the other hand, has won five of six.

Rowland: Louisville is tied for No. 11 in the country in tackles for loss with 81 in 11 games. That doesn't mean Louisville is an elite defense, but they're getting opponents behind the chains and that could be a danger zone for UK. Creating that kind of havoc in the backfield could also lead to mistakes. Louisville is a capable running team and improved on defense. Mostly, they're very hungry for a win in this rivalry and coupled with UK's vulnerability and knack for mistakes this year, it's far from a sure fire W.

What's your prediction for the game and how it will play out?

Drummond: Kentucky 26, Louisville 16 - This should be a much-closer affair than what we’ve seen in the recent history of the Governor’s Cup, but I think Chris Rodriguez has a huge game on the ground, and Will Levis comes up with enough splash plays to give the Cats their fourth straight W in the series.

Sisk: Mark Stoops has built this program on toughness, and these are the kind of games where that stands out. Fans are doubting, and the program’s biggest rival is coming to town on a heater. This is what Stoops loves, because it is a perfect time to circle the wagons. The Cats will run the football, stay away from turnovers, and control the pace with the defense. The SEC toughness at Kroger Field will be too much. Kentucky 20 Louisville 17

Rowland: My feeling on the game has been the same for a few weeks. It could go either way and the line reflects that correctly, but I'm not sure Louisville has quite enough offense for them to pull it off on the road. I've said Kentucky 19, Louisville 17, and I have no clue how the 'Cats get to that score, but it will involve a couple of kicking miscues.