Roundtable: Kentucky-Missouri Predictions

While Kentucky is a road favorite, it's an important game for a team that is still very much looking to start building a postseason resume and get off to a good start in conference play.

Here are staff takes on the game.

How important is this game to Kentucky in the big picture?

Jeff Drummond: This is an unusually “important” SEC opener for Kentucky. It feels funny to type that, but we already knew league play was going to be a significant challenge this season, and nobody was including Missouri in that calculation when the preseason picks were made. Now the Tigers are 11-1 — including a blowout of a ranked Illinois squad — and looking for even more national respect with a win over the Wildcats. But UK is not without motivation as well. The non-conference slate has been a struggle, and this game represents a chance to pick up a quality road win and pick up the fans’ spirits.

David Sisk: This is a huge game. This has not been the best start for Kentucky going into SEC play. Confidence can be a two-way street. A win would have the Cats feeling good about themselves. Three of the next four league games are against Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee. A loss would put the team behind the eight ball right off the bat. A good showing should also mean there have been some effective offensive moves. In a nutshell, this is a win that Kentucky needs on a number of fronts.

Travis Graf: This is a huge game for Kentucky, no doubt about it. They could start conference play off on the right note against a quality Missouri squad who is 11-1 under first year head coach Dennis Gates and sits just outside of the top 25. Almost as importantly, it’ll give Kentucky a win against what the fan base considers to be a quality opponent and get some juice back into the fan base.

What are your thoughts on the matchup on paper?

Drummond: I kind of like the fact that Mizzou likes to get up and down the floor. This should not be a rock fight, unless John Calipari chooses to make it one, and that should favor the Cats’ natural strengths. This also has the potential to be a big rebounding game for Oscar Tshiebwe and UK in general as Mizzou’s leader on the glass is a wing who averages 5.7 rebounds per game. The Cats enter the matchup +8 on average.

Sisk: If there is a team that has a mixed body of work it is Missoouri. True, they have an outstanding record, but the only Power Five teams they have played have been Kansas and Illinois, and you couldn't have a bigger discrepancy. The Tigers defeated the Fighting Illini by 22, and lost to the Jayhawks by 28. Missouri can score. All five starters average double figure scoring. They want to play fast, and more times than not they will take the first shot they see. It is also a team that doesn't rebound or defend particularly well, especially in transition. The biggest question for me is whether Kentucky is willing to play that pace, or whether they want to grind it down to a halfcourt affair.

Graf: Missouri likes to play fast and put up points. They rank 4th nationally in points per game at 88 per contest. If they continue to play at a high pace, I think it plays into Kentucky’s hands if they’re making shots. Kentucky will probably be one of if not the toughest defense that the Tigers have played all year, as Missouri is 4th nationally at 51-percent from the field. Let’s see how they react with more resistance at that end.

What's your prediction for the game?

Drummond: Kentucky 73, Missouri 69 - This was a tricky one to predict — I could really see it going any number of ways — but I’ll go with a close UK victory sparked by the Cats’ defense and rebounding. Antonio Reeves has the hot hand, offensively, putting an end to his odd home/road shooting splits.

Sisk: Kentucky is also Jekyll and Hyde. We have documented how different this team is when they run and play fast. They will have ample opportunity Wednesday night. If they do this then spacing will not be an issue. Oscar Tshiebwe also has a chance to have a huge game. One individual I spoke with who has seen Missouri live believes the Kentucky center will feast on the offensive glass. Columbia is a different type of place to play, and this environment should be one of the rowdiest Kentucky has seen there in years. But the Wildcats have the better talent, and the type of pace is one that plays in their hands whether it is something they are in the habit of doing or not. This is one rare time I am going with a high score.

Kentucky 84 Missouri 77

Graf: I’ll go Kentucky 74, Missouri 70 here. Kentucky struggles early on the road but goes on a big run late in the first half to give themselves a nice lead and then hold on until the end. Missouri’s opponents shoot 36-percent from the outside against them and CJ Fredrick has his first big game against a quality opponent in a Kentucky uniform.