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ROUNDTABLE: If five leave and there's no big transfer, what's the ceiling?

In today's edition of Cats Illustrated's regular Roundtable series the staff takes on a weighty, concerning question that has been floating around the Big Blue Nation because of some recent reports and chatter.

We're deep into speculation here as a lot has yet to be determined, but we've already speculated on who might return next year and what it might mean.

On the flip side, what if a worst-case scenario comes to pass and only Keion Brooks and Dontaie Allen return to the 2020-2021 squad, and also if the 'Cats do not add a significant scholarship transfer to the frontcourt? What is the ceiling for that team which also includes the nation's No. 1 class?

Travis Graf: If Kentucky were to only return Keion Brooks and Dontaie Allen while also adding zero major transfer options, the ceiling is very limited for next season. The ‘Cats would only have one returning contributor from a team that was pretty good, but not great in 2020. Despite having two top five recruits coming in, Kentucky would still have major holes on the roster outside of those two guys. BJ Boston and Terrence Clarke are the only freshmen that I can see performing at a very high level in year one, unless there’s a surprise performer like Tyler Herro or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was as a newcomer. The Sweet Sixteen would be the ceiling for this team with no more quality additions or returnees, which I don’t expect by the way.

David Sisk: A wise old high school coach who had about ten-thousand career wins once told me that sometimes it's not what you have but what everybody else has. There are so many uncertainties for next season it would really be tough to start handicapping the 2020-21 season. But if only Keion Brooks and Dontaie Allen return, this is obviously going to be a team heavily dependant on its freshmen.

This team will have the best one-two perimeter scoring punch it has had in a while with B.J. Boston and Terrence Clarke. From there it's up in the air how much the other four freshmen could improve during the year. Here is what scares me. When Nick Richards got into foul trouble against Vanderbilt, the team suffered. Calipari said after the game that a team without an inside game is just a pretender. I hope this is not the case next season. We figured Nick Richards would be gone, but losing E.J. Montgomery is a blow. I'm not sure about a ceiling, but it appears the way things stand right now this is a Sweet 16 type team.

Jeff Drummond: If this situation unfolds, I think you're probably looking at a near carbon copy of the 2015-16 season. That's the year UK had seven guys enter the draft and lost all of its primary big men. The resulting team, led by Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray, was entertaining (winning a share of the SEC title) but lacked the inside presence to make a deep tournament run. The Cats ultimately lost to Indiana in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, the earliest exit of any UK team under John Calipari that made the field. I think you'd be looking at Sweet 16 at best.

Justin Rowland: When I use the terms ceiling and floor, I'm talking about extremes. Almost outlier possibilities. I want to be reasonable, but a ceiling is the ceiling (or the roof?). The best possible outcome. In that context I'd still leave open the possibility of a great season for Kentucky. Devin Askew could conceivably be something between a serviceable and a good point guard, just a different kind than Calipari has sometimes had.

Then you look at Terrence Clarke and B.J. Boston, the highest-ranked signees Kentucky has had in quite some time. For context, again, they got an awful lot of mileage out of non-Top-5 guys like De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, Jamal Murray and others. In Clarke and Boston are truly top-5 guys and play like those other recent Calipari stars, that's as good a starring cast as most teams are going to have even if they're freshmen.

I don't know what to expect from Allen and I'm sure Brooks will improve but I'm probably not going to "expect" a P.J. Washington or Immanuel Quickley freshman-to-sophomore (i.e. SEC POY caliber player) leap.

When you get into the tournament talent goes a long way. But you have to have roster balance and no glaring holes to go really deep, usually. And I think the frontcourt would probably prevent UK from advancing to the Final Four. So I'll say the Elite Eight is the ceiling (and I would predict worse).

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