Roundtable and predictions: UK-UT
Saturday brings a rare occurrence. The nation's No. 1-ranked team will take the court in Rupp Arena and "Kentucky" won't be across the chest.
No. 5 Kentucky hosts No. 1 Tennessee in the biggest regular season Southeastern Conference basketball game, arguably, in years.
The Cats Illustrated staff goes to the roundtable to discuss the game and make predictions.
Why should Kentucky fans be optimistic about Saturday's game against Tennessee?
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: Kentucky fans should be reasonably optimistic about this game. For starters, it will be played at Rupp Arena, where the Cats have won 88 percent of their SEC games historically and have dropped only nine games against all opponents in 10 years under John Calipari. The odds get even stronger when you consider UK just lost one of those rare games at home against LSU, and Calipari's track record in bounce-back games is really strong. I liked the tone that the Cats presented after Tuesday's loss. I think the attitude is right to follow that performance up with a strong one against the Vols.
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: Kentucky’s biggest advantage is being Tennessee’s best opponent in quite awhile. Tennessee has faced mainly bottom-half SEC teams so far during their conference slate. Kentucky also matches up well with the Vols style and roster makeup. Tennessee ranks 112th in the country in total rebounding and ranks 325th in the nation in 3-point field goal attempts. Kentucky will have plenty of opportunities at second chance buckets in this game.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: Kentucky's players will have a big chip on their shoulders after the way things went against LSU late. Tennessee also hasn't been playing a lot of great teams recently. PJ Washington continues to play like one of the best players in the nation. I think Kentucky can pound the offensive glass against a Tennessee team that ranks in the 220's nationally in defensive rebounding. And while Tennessee is an offensive juggernaut, this is not one of the nation's very best defensive teams.
What are the main reasons Kentucky fans should be concerned?
Drummond: Tennessee may be the best team UK has faced all season, including the Duke squad that throttled them 118-84 in the season opener. The Vols have a tremendous duo in Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield and a nice supporting cast around them. It's an experienced team that has been through a lot of battles. They won't be intimidated at Rupp Arena. Tennessee has strong coaching with Rick Barnes, and we've seen at times in the past that Calipari teams don't always fare as well against some of his close friends in the coaching biz as guys he allegedly does not like.
Graf: Kentucky is at a disadvantage in terms of maturity in this game. Tennessee’s starting lineup is made up of juniors and seniors who know and understand their role completely. Kentucky is getting closer to locking in their individual identities, but you don’t know what you’ll get from each player on a game to game basis. That’s not the case for the Vols. One of Tennessee’s biggest strengths is blocking shots, where they’re 6th in the country in total blocks. If Kentucky was to get in foul trouble on Saturday, it would hurt in more ways than one. The Vols are 12th in the country in free throw percentage.
Rowland: Ashton Hagans hasn't been consistently bad, but he has leveled off a bit recently after improving for such a long period of the season. His slight and perhaps temporary regression is one point of concern I would carry into the game. He simply hasn't been as electric or impactful the past couple of times out and I think he needs to be that for Kentucky to knock off the Volunteers. We keep waiting for this team to start knocking down more outside shots and they have been inconsistent enough at that, I think we can pretty much say we know who they are.
Tennessee shoots 51.2% from the floor which is outstanding and will be a test for Kentucky's defense, which is better but wasn't good against LSU. They don't really turn the ball over. This team executes very well.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome and Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: Kentucky 74, Tennessee 71. The Cats survive Round 1 against the Vols, gutting out a hard-fought win at Rupp with Reid Travis posting a big double-double to claim MVP honors.
Graf: Kentucky 77, Tennessee 74. I’m torn on this prediction. Tennessee has been the better team, but they’re not as battle-tested as the Cats are. On the other hand, Kentucky seems to play a lot more tight at Rupp than on the road. For me, this game comes down to the matchup at the small forward. If Keldon Johnson can hold his own against Admiral Schofield, the Cats win. Johnson must not go on spurts where you forget he’s even on the floor. MVP goes to PJ Washington, who wins his matchup against Grant Williams in a personal statement game.
Rowland: Tennessee 82, Kentucky 80. It's hard for me to predict Kentucky to lose a second straight home game, especially when this team had been playing so well before the second half debacle against LSU, but this is a very good Volunteer team. For Kentucky to win, I think the Cats will have to shoot the ball very well and I'm not quite confident enough in that to say I think it's going to happen.