Whenever Kentucky and North Carolina play it's always one of the most anticipated, emotionally-charge games of the season, and there's always national intrigue in addition to the bragging rights at stake for both programs.
No. 19 Kentucky and No. 9 North Carolina renew their rivalry in the CBS Classic in Chicago on Saturday, and Cats Illustrated staff members and contributors preview the game by opining on big questions and giving predictions.
What are some reasons for Kentucky fans to feel optimistic ahead of Saturday afternoon's game against the Tar Heels?
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: The Tar Heels are one of only a handful of teams that will always be willing to play an up-tempo, full-court game against UK. Roy Williams will not try to “muck up” the game, as the coaches say. This should give the Cats an opportunity to play to their natural strengths and have a chance to win a shootout.
Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: The process hasn't been pretty but Kentucky has gotten incrementally better with each game this season, specifically their last three where the Cats have played stretches of excellent defense. The key to that has been the team's ability to force turnovers. North Carolina's opponents have turned them over on average 15.5 times per contest, good for 17 points. If the Cats can force Carolina into that range it will go a long way towards keeping the game close.
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: Stats and analytics show that North Carolina is just as bad as Kentucky is defensively. There should be plenty of open looks from three, as well as in transition. North Carolina doesn’t have a lineup that features 5 shooters, so that will be a change of pace for the Cats.
David Sisk, Staff Writer: Kentucky fans should feel good because their team is coming off probably its best performance of the year against Utah. One could also go back a little farther, and the first half defense against Seton Hall was improved from earlier in the year. No combine that with some offensive possibilities. Tyler Herro is finding his mark with his mid-range game. Keldon Johnson hit his first five 3-point attempts against the Utes. Reid Travis and P.J. Washington have had big scoring nights. if Kentucky can put all of that together, they can not only play with anyone in the country, they can beat anybody.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: As Tar Heel Illustrated publisher Andrew Jones told site readers last week, UNC's opponents are shooting more free throws than the Tar Heels in recent games. That is an historical rarity. A big one. The good news for Kentucky? The Cats get to the line as much or more than pretty much anyone and they have converted well this year. If the Cats stay in attack mode and avoid a flurry of turnovers, they can pound the ball inside, beat UNC off the dribble and make a living at the stripe. That could also create foul problems for the Heels. Also, UNC's big men are only so-so and Kentucky seems to have an overall front court advantage even though Luke Maye is always going to be underrated.
Why might Kentucky fans be concerned, or, might Tar Heel fans feel good?
Drummond: North Carolina has a lot of offensive firepower (94 ppg) and UK is still trying to get right on the defensive end of the floor. It's been hard enough trying to defend teams with one or two major scoring options; the Tar Heels put five guys in double figures. The Cats have improved in that regard, but how much? I’d say UNC has been licking its chops for this one since seeing the UK-Duke game.
Taylor: Kentucky has lost its only two games away from Rupp Arena, one to a Seton Hall team they should have beaten just two weeks ago. That is the first cause of concern for John Calipari's team. The second is that the Tar Heels are coming off of their best win of the season over a very good Gonzaga team.
Graf: Kentucky hasn’t played a team of this caliber since Game 1 versus Duke. North Carolina has faced much stiffer competition than the Cats have to date. Kentucky is trying to come together as a cohesive defensive unit, but the Tar Heels catch them in the adjustment stage. This is great news for a team already averaging over 90 points per game.
Sisk: North Carolina fans can take solace in knowing that after a decisive loss to Michigan, they have combined for 200 points in the past two games, including a 103-90 win over then top-ranked Gonzaga. They probably also feel pretty good about Kentucky's struggles so far.
Rowland: UNC is one of the best, most dangerous jump shooting teams in the country. They shoot better from outside than some of Roy Williams' championship teams. And while one game at home against a lagging Gonzaga team shouldn't be the only leading indicator we weigh, the Heels did play their best ball their last time out. Kentucky's backcourt has made progress recently, in some respects, but I'm not sure if they're ready for the pressure and tempo they'll see, and UK isn't going to shut the Heels down so the Cats need real production from their backcourt. In short, UNC's biggest strength (perimeter scoring, shooting) is Kentucky's biggest weakness (defending the outside shot). That's worrisome for John Calipari.
Early in the Calipari era, his Cats generally played well (and fared well) against Roy's Heels because they had a significant overall length advantage, counting all positions, and because in back-and-forth games they were better equipped, defensively, to lock down and get timely stops than the Heels. This year I don't see that in this team's DNA, at least not yet.
At the risk of sounding too negative here, the last (and maybe most important) factor is this: The last time Kentucky went head to head with a really talented team and neither squad wanted to slow it down, they simply couldn't guard well enough to even compete. UNC is no Duke. They won't play as well as the Blue Devils did that game. Not even close. But I'm not sure this UK team is ready for 40 minutes of ultra intense rivalry basketball yet.
What's your pick for the game's outcome and also Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: Kentucky 89, North Carolina 85. This one has the feel of a game where nobody really expects the Cats to win. It’s been my experience that they tend play well under those circumstances. Immanuel Quickley has best game as a Cat to spark the victory.
Taylor: North Carolina 92, Kentucky 86. The Heels are the better team right now--key word being right now--I just think think UNC has more experience and polished firepower than a UK team still trying to find their identity.
Graf: Kentucky 92 North Carolina 88. All signs point to this game being a high-scoring affair. The game is close throughout, with the teams trading scoring spurts with each other. Tyler Herro finds his shot against a suspect North Carolina defense, leading the Cats with 20-25 points.
Sisk: This game will come down to how well Kentucky guards. I believe the points will be there for the Cats. UNC looks to outscore their opponent. They have scored over 89 points four times this season and over 100 five times. The craziest stat in regards to the Heels is that they average 69 shots per game. The national average is in the fifties. I can see Calipari getting this game in the half court and going inside with it. If that happens, and they can score in the post, North Carolina will have problems running. I don't think 3-pointers are as big for Kentucky in this game because North Carolina will try to speed them up, thus giving them a driving lane. Also keep an eye on the production of both benches. Carolina is very deep.
Michigan held them to 67 points. I believe that is the game Calipari has watched over and over. I think it has the chance to be anybody's game at the end, but I believe North Carolina is better right now. I do see Kentucky beginning to put it together in January, but I still think they are in the process stage.North Carolina 84 Kentucky 79.
Rowland: UNC 88, Kentucky 74. Before anyone freaks out or accuses me of throwing this team's remaining season out the window, I don't think UNC will prove to be 14 points better than Kentucky in terms of the final potential both squads have. But in terms of the matchup at this point in the season, it's where I'm at. North Carolina has some real flaws, especially on defense. I wouldn't be surprised if it's close for a long while, or if Kentucky rallies from a deficit to make it interesting. But UNC is going to run. Kentucky is going to run. I just have to believe UNC's guards are better at this point in the season and not by a small margin. That's the difference. UK can win, but I think they would need UNC to shoot more poorly than they normally have. Kentucky's MVP: Reid Travis, who will draw a lot of fouls and keep Kentucky fans interested.
