Kentucky has a chance to complete a regular season sweep of the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville on Saturday but it won't be easy given Reid Travis' status and the revenge factor for the Big Orange.
The Cats Illustrated staff makes predictions and discusses the game in our roundtable format.
What are the biggest reasons Kentucky should be optimistic about its matchup with Tennessee on Saturday?
Jeff Drummond: Kentucky has already demonstrated that it can not only beat Tennessee but dominate the Vols. It will be interesting to see if the psychology behind that first meeting affects the rematch. Will the Cats be overconfident? Will the Vols draw on some extra motivation to prove themselves, or will they carry some doubt from the beatdown in Rupp Arena? A couple of colleagues in the coaching profession have told me that this is a simply a good matchup for UK, that the first game was no fluke. The Cats’ length is difficult for the Vols to handle on the offensive end of the floor.
Warren Taylor: Since Kentucky blew the Vols out in Lexington, it has won handily and come from 15 down to win again without one of its best players in Reid Travis. The Cats are starting to show the mettle of a championship team. The Vols, on the other hand, haven't looked impressive in a road loss at LSU or in wins over Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Sure the Cats have two awful halves (Missouri and Arkansas) under their belt, but they've shown an ability to hit a higher gear and stay there long enough to get the win.
Travis Graf: Kentucky absolutely dominated this matchup at Rupp two weekends ago. Tennessee’s style of play plays right into the Cats’ hands when the Cats are at full strength. If Reid Travis is healthy, Kentucky can match their physicality. If he’s not, this game comes down to if Richards and Montgomery embrace the competition or shy away from it. Herro’s stellar shooting should continue since he’s being guarded by LaMonte Turner, Tennessee’s second worst defender. The Cats shot 33 free throws in the last matchup and it’s not hard to imagine them getting a high number of attempts again. The Vols are foul prone and UK must shoot at a high percentage from the free throw stripe.
David Sisk: Kentucky fans should be positive about this team no matter who they play. They have proven that they are that good. The Cats basically blew out the Vols the first time around, but I don't believe the media has totally given them their just dues. It wasn't just because of physical play. In my opinion, they were and are much better at the wing spot. Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro are better than Jordan Bowden and Lamonte Turner. P.J. Washington is also too big for Grant Williams when he gets on the low block. The Wildcats also have already run a road gauntlet at Auburn, Mississippi State, and Florida.
Justin Rowland: Tennessee is definitely mortal. Recent losses and a close call are proof of that. The Vols didn't have an answer (or a good gameplan) for PJ Washington the first time these teams met. Kentucky will not be intimidated by Tennessee, the team, based on how that first game went. Tyler Herro is playing at a high level. At times, lately, Kentucky has been dominant and continues to flash the ability to win the national championship. Tennessee has struggled to defend the dribble.
What are the biggest reasons for concern?
Drummond: Tennessee has won 24 straight games in Thompson-Boling Arena. The Vols are tough no matter where you play them, but the degree of difficulty gets magnified in Knoxville. The Cats have lost three straight there, and the all-time series is 54-51 down on Rocky Top. That’s a pretty remarkable stat given UK’s historical dominance of college basketball. It will be a rabid crowd seeking to avenge the 86-69 blowout at Rupp Arena which knocked the Vols out of the No. 1 ranking. You also have to consider that UT did not shoot the ball like it is capable of shooting in the first matchup. The Vols went 7-of-25 from 3-point range with Lamonte Turner and Jordan Bowden combining to go 0-for-11. That is unlikely to happen again.
Taylor: Despite not playing well, Tennessee is a good enough team to take LSU to the wire and win in a hostile environment in Oxford on Wednesday. They remember what happened in Lexington. There is no guarantee Kentucky will play a second half at a high level as they did during the first meeting, and I expect the Vols will bring their best game this time around. Add in the historical struggles of Kentucky in Big Orange Country, and tomorrow's contest has all the makings of a true border war.
Graf: The biggest reason for concern in this game is the revenge factor. The Vols were thoroughly embarrassed and exposed in this matchup a couple of weeks ago. Tennessee is coming off of a narrow win against Ole Miss and a confrontational loss against LSU. They’re struggling to regain their footing against their back-loaded SEC schedule and a win at home against Kentucky would be the perfect antidote for their bad play of late. If Reid Travis is a no-go, Tennessee will likely double team PJ Washington on every paint touch after being torched by his right hand jump hook. There must be another threat to score on the block,” and it’ll be interesting to see if Richards or Montgomery can provide that against this physical Vols squad.
Sisk: Tennessee is legit. They offer a better and tougher match-up than the three teams I mentioned because of their strength and physicality inside. I think Kentucky is better, but the Volunteers offer one of the few rosters that can bang and battle with them inside. There is also the the matter of Thompson-Boling Arena where they haven't lost this season.
Rowland: Tennessee's a good team and they want to return the favor. While I do believe Kentucky is better than Tennessee, the first meeting was more about the "moment" than the matchups. There is a danger that Kentucky could just run into a buzzsaw of a Tennessee team that might beat anyone on Saturday. We'll see.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome and who will be Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: Tennessee 72, Kentucky 68. With Reid Travis unlikely to play on Saturday due to his sprained knee, it may be asking too much for the Cats to complete a sweep of the Vols. PJ Washington will be asked to take up some of the “rough house stuff,” as John Calipari calls it, and he will be more susceptible to foul trouble. I look for UT to go right at Washington and see if they can send the Cats’ star to the bench for long stretches of this game. If UK finds a way to win this game, I would look for Keldon Johnson to be the MVP. Tyler Herro will command a lot of attention coming off his 29-point outburst against Arkansas, so Johnson should have some opportunities to shine.
Taylor: Kentucky 72, Tennessee 68. Without or without Reid Travis, Kentucky finds a way to win against its ancient enemy to the south. P.J. Washington will be the Cats MVP in this one and will return to form after a quiet game against the Hogs.
Graf: If Reid Travis plays: Kentucky 81, Tennessee 75. If Reid Travis doesn’t play: Tennessee 78, Kentucky 70. With the Vols likely honing in on stopping PJ Washington, I think Tyler Herro continues his tremendous play with a 20+ point game and a few game-changing three pointers in a hard-fought game from start to finish.
Sisk: I'm going with Keldon Johnson for MVP. His motor was on another level the first time around. He has the dynamic ability to take over the game in a number of different ways. Like I said, I just don't think Bowden can stay with him. Besides that, it will be interesting to see how well Tyler Herro shoots in this environment and I also expect P.J. Washington to get double every time he gets a foot in the lane.
This game is going to be very interesting from an adjustment standpoint. Rick Barnes was very vanilla defensively the first time around. He did go zone, but also let P.J. go one-on-one the entire game against his man-to-man. I look for doubles to come of Ashton Hagans and the opposite post this time. That brings in the absence of Reid Travis. I can't remember Nick Richards and P.J. making many connections on Tuesday night when Arkansas doubled. P.J. and Reid were like clockwork. It is also going to hurt without Reid's physicality. I like Richards and E.J. Montgomery, but more against a smaller, quicker lineup. I'm afraid this is he first game they will really miss Travis. It is also gives Barnes the chance to play his 6-foot-11 center, Kyle Alexander, who wasn't strong enough to battle Travis and Washington, but can play against Richards and Montgomery. I initially picked a split between the two. A top-ranked team would come to Lexington and catches Rupp and a less than hospitable host at their best. Then the favor would be returned when the Vols and their legions looked for revenge two weeks later. I think Kentucky is better. I would take them in six in a seven-game series. If the two played ten games, I think UK wins six to seven because of the before-mentioned reasons. But counting the Travis absence, and a tough road setting, I'm picking the home team in a close one. Tennessee 76, Kentucky 72.
Rowland: I pledged to continue picking PJ Washington as Kentucky's MVP but it was the wrong pick in the last game. I will go with Tyler Herro because of his penchant for stepping up in big moments and enjoying the spotlight on the road. He won't score 29 points to match his last game, but I think he'll be the reason Kentucky sweeps the Volunteers. Kentucky 75, Tennessee 73. No, my confidence level isn't high on that, especially with Travis' status. But it has been impressive to see various guys - Keldon Johnson, EJ Montgomery, Nick Richards - all step up with monster rebounding games, swat parties, or stat sheet stuffing in ways to make up for it. Tennessee has played a tough schedule lately but by now it's safe to say they are a very good team, not a great team. Kentucky's better but the road is an equalizer.
