Cats Illustrated staff members and contributors chime in with their last minute Citrus Bowl takes and predictions with Kentucky and Penn State almost ready to do battle.
What parts of this game, on paper, seem to be working in Kentucky's favor?
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: I believe motivation will tilt toward the Wildcats in this one. When the bowl matchups were announced, those around the Penn State program suggested the Nittany Lions may be a bit disappointed that they did not reach the CFP and that they'd be playing a "basketball school" in the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky, however, feels like it has some unfinished business in this game. It's an opportunity for a rare 10-win season at UK and a chance for the Cats to beat a true blue-blood program to get there. I think the team will be highly motivated to send their seniors (and Benny Snell Jr.) out the right way. In terms of Xs and Os, you have to like how UK's ground game matches up with PSU's run defense (71st nationally, 168 ypg).
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: Kentucky seems to be the more motivated team in this matchup. Penn State talking heads talked about wanting to be in a better bowl, so I think Kentucky is more locked into this game. Kentucky’s two most decorated players, Benny Snell and Josh Allen, will have one last opportunity to lay it all on the line for the Cats. Both made the choice to play in this game instead of sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. This Kentucky team is approaching this game as unfinished business, where it seemed that the last two years they were just happy to be there. Another thing is the spread has hovered around 6.5 - 7 points despite the majority of the money siding with the Nittany Lions.
Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: All year Kentucky has had an edge in the defense and run game departments. That won't change against Penn State. With the exception of Michigan, the Cats' D is the best the Nittany Lions will have played all season. Several key contributors are playing their final game on Tuesday and it isn't in this group's DNA to go out laying an egg. James Franklin's team also allowed a 100-yard rusher in four of their last six games, which has to be music to the ears of one Benny Snell, especially with the UK career rushing record in sight.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: UK should be able to run the ball against the Nittany Lions (if they can't it will be a long game). I also like how Kentucky's defense matches up with the Penn State offense. If they can key in on Trace McSorley and Miles Sanders in the run game they should be able to bottle up the PSU offense. As others have said, I think motivation is a big factor working into the Cats' favor.
What aspects of this matchup should be concerning?
Drummond: For starters, Penn State has "been there, done that." The moment will not be too big for the Nittany Lions. They have a lot of experienced players who have been in big games during their careers. In terms of Xs and Os, Penn State is really good when it puts the opponent in long-yardage situations. The Cats must stay out of 3rd-and-8 (or longer) down-and-distance plays because the Nittany Lions really thrive there.
Graf: The most concerning aspect of this game for the Cats is that Trace McSorley is unlike any QB Kentucky has faced this season. He’s accounted for 27 total touchdowns this year and is notorious for gashing defenses with his legs when the linebackers don’t maintain gap integrity or when the edge rushers get too far up field. The player who would’ve most likely drawn the assignment of spying McSorley, Jordan Jones, is ineligible to play on Tuesday. A few miscellaneous stats that don’t help Kentucky’s cause are Penn State’s red zone efficiency rating (9th nationally), Kentucky’s pass D efficiency (88th nationally) and Kentucky’s pass D against explosiveness (81st nationally). Penn State, while not playing the most explosive offenses, only allowed 20 points in their last 3 matchups. Their defense matches up in some aspects to Kentucky’s, particularly in their pass rush capability, where both teams have accounted for 25 sacks on the season. Penn State is also 9-1 this season when favored.
Taylor: The Cats match up well with Penn State, but the Nittany Lions' quarterback Trace McSorley resurfaces an old demon for the UK defense: a dual-threat quarterback. McSorley is Penn State's second-leading rusher with 723 yards on the ground and leads the team with 11 rushing touchdowns. Kentucky struggled in spots against Louisville's Malik Cunningham, and while McSorley isn't the same breed of athlete, his feet can extend drives and command enough of UK's attention to open up one-on-one opportunities for his teammates.
Rowland: Penn State might not be especially dynamic but everything about them says "sound". They don't really beat themselves. They are +1 in turnover margin, play solid defense, win red zone situations on both sides of the ball and aren't penalized a lot. That means Kentucky probably won't be able to capitalize on a lot of mistakes. They are going to have to go out and make some outstanding plays. For a Kentucky team that hasn't had a lot of explosive plays and has struggled in the red zone, that is daunting. I'm not exactly sure where the points are going to come from for the Wildcats.
What would a win in this game mean for Kentucky?
Drummond: There aren't many players in UK history who can say their season or career ended with a win. Even fewer can say it was 10 wins on the season. That's a huge opportunity for the Cats to cement themselves as one of the most successful teams in school history.
Graf: I’ve been saying for a while that the 2020 recruiting class would be the best in school history. A Kentucky win over an upper echelon college football program in a New Year’s Day bowl would do nothing but help their recruiting momentum. The program will reap the recruiting benefits of this season starting in that 2020 class, where the Cats are in the mix for a bunch of their top targets. Wildcat fans have been waiting for this day for years, through seasons of heartbreaks and near misses. A Citrus Bowl win would help mend a lot of wounds for Kentucky’s fan base and would give the program it’s first 10 win season since 1977.
Taylor: A win for Kentucky would give the program its first 10-win season since the 1970s. That is a game-changer in terms of perception, more so than beating Florida, because it shows that Kentucky is a place where a player can expect to play in and win meaningful football games.
Rowland: Usually I think bowl game outcomes are pretty overrated unless you are in the playoff and competing for a championship. My usual take is that few people nationally are going to remember the outcome of the game, but they can tell you that programs like Penn State routinely play in games like this. So getting here is the most important thing. Having said that, fans would never forget "10 wins" and this fan base deserves that. It would be a great way to send off Josh Allen and Benny Snell, two of the program's all-time greats. And it would really continue to help Kentucky gain national respect because this is one of the team's bigger stages in quite some time.
What's your game prediction and who is your pick for UK's MVP?
Drummond: Kentucky 26, Penn State 20. Benny Snell Jr. shatters the UK school rushing record previously held by Sonny Collins and rides into the sunset as one of the most productive players in program history. I think he threatens 200 yards in this one.
Graf: Kentucky 24 Penn State 21. Kentucky finally has the Jimmys and the Joes on their roster to pull off a win in a marquee national matchup like this. Benny Snell goes for 120 yards and a couple of scores while riding off into the sunset as Kentucky’s all-time leading rusher and Citrus Bowl champion.
Taylor: Kentucky 24, Penn State 17. This will be a defensive struggle, but the Cats will control the clock and force enough timely turnovers to get the win. Benny Snell will rush for over 120 yards and end his career as the Citrus Bowl MVP.
Rowland: Kentucky 19, Penn State 17. This game feels a little like Kentucky's 2007 Music City Bowl game against Clemson. Yes, UK has been in the postseason in recent years. But I sense a real hunger to win this game from everyone around the program. With so many experienced players on the team trying to cap a special season, I will just err on Kentucky's side because of intangibles. Kentucky's MVP: Defensive back Mike Edwards, who will be all over the field making plays.
