If Kentucky bounces back from a loss to Tennessee with a win on Tuesday night the Wildcats will still be in solid shape for a No. 1 seed, pending later outcomes. But a loss could be devastating to that cause.
With that in mind, Cats Illustrated staff members discuss UK's trip to Oxford and make game picks.
What are the main reasons for UK fans to feel optimistic about Tuesday night's game against the Rebels?
Jeff Drummond: Kentucky should be reasonably confident entering this matchup because Ole Miss is an opponent that plays a smaller lineup, so if Reid Travis is unable to play once again with his sprained right knee, the Cats won't find it as difficult to adjust as it was at Tennessee. Also, UK has a good track record under John Calipari in "bounce-back" games from a loss.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky plays well in Oxford and against Ole Miss historically. It's hard to believe the Wildcats won't rally with a strong performance in a "back against the wall" game after recent struggles.
Travis Graf: One would think that Kentucky would be out for blood in this game after getting blitzed by the Vols this past weekend. Ole Miss presents an opportunity to get a 10th quadrant 1 win and maintain hope of earning a number 1 seed. Kentucky should control the boards in this game, as Ole Miss ranks 255th in the country in total rebounding and 235th in defensive rebounding. Kentucky will have plenty of 2nd chance opportunities if the law of averages plays out the way it should. The Rebels are 192nd in fouls committed, so if the Cats can capitalize on that, they can come away with some easy points at the free throw line. Ole Miss doesn’t feature defenders who can force PJ Washington to extend his post-up catch position like Tennessee did. If Washington makes quick work in the paint and avoids double teams like he had been before the last two games, he should have a field day. Blake Hinson, the player who will most likely draw the assignment of guarding PJ, is analytically the Rebels’ second-worst defender.
What are the primary reasons for concern?
Drummond: Ole Miss was picked near the bottom of the conference entering the season but has exceeded all expectations with a season that could result in an NCAA Tournament bid. Kermit Davis has been outstanding in his first year with the program. The Rebels will be jacked up for this game and playing with a sense of desperation after losing their previous two games on the final possession. If Kentucky does not match that intensity, it will be difficult to leave Oxford with a win.
Rowland: If Travis is out then this game becomes very difficult because in his absence Kentucky has been a shell of what they were when they were peaking with him on the court. That's the big thing. With that said, even if Travis plays it's a tough game. Look at what these two teams have been doing in recent weeks. Ole Miss is only 5-5 over their last ten games and they've lost two in a row, but those were very narrow defeats on the road against Arkansas and at home to Tennessee in a game they should have won. The Rebels are a really good offensive team and if UK doesn't disrupt more than they have the last few times out, they'll walk out of Oxford with a loss.
Graf: It’s completely possible that the Tennessee game may have messed with the mental toughness and confidence of the young players on Kentucky’s roster. Kentucky cannot survive poor games from all three of Tyler Herro, Keldon Johnson and Ashton Hagans. The young trio must trust themselves and not second guess their shot, or it could be a long night against the Rebels on their senior night. Breein Tyree and Terence Davis are the SEC’s best kept secret. The veteran backcourt combines for 34 points per game and both players shoot better than 38% from three. In fact, Ole Miss has four starters that shoot 35% or better from outside of the arc. The Rebels shoot well from the free throw line as well, shooting 78% as a team, which is is good for 8th in the country. Ashton Hagans has taken a step back on defense, and he must fall in love with locking people down once again. The entire team’s play kick starts when he’s locked in on defense and they can turn defense into offense. Guarding Tyree and Davis on Davis’ senior night is going to be a tall order.
What's your game prediction and who's your pick for UK's MVP?
Drummond: Kentucky 74, Ole Miss 68. I see a hard-fought game on the horizon, but the Cats should be able to find a way to pull this one out based on the overall talent discrepancy. The MVP will be Keldon Johnson, who has not played well of late and took the lopsided loss to UT rather hard. I think he comes out with something to prove in this game.
Rowland: UK 80, Ole Miss 76. Kentucky dominates the SEC, but Kentucky dominates Ole Miss more than any other team in the league (106-13 all-time). That might not mean a whole lot for this one game, especially being on the road against a quality team with the Wildcats not exactly peaking, but I'd be lying if I said that history didn't shape my judgment. UK has played very well in Oxford the last three times John Calipari teams have gone there, winning each by solid margins. Wildcat MVP: Ashton Hagans. He ups his level of play after a downtick of late.
Graf: Kentucky 72, Ole Miss 65. Kentucky squeaks out another win in Reid Travis’ absence as Nick Richards dominates the glass and posts a double double. Look for the trio of Hagans, Herro and Johnson to take a step in the right direction.
