Kentucky hasn't had much success against Kansas in recent years but could this be the year the Wildcats reverse their fortunes?
Cats Illustrated writers and contributors chime in with their takes.
Why should Kentucky fans feel optimistic about this matchup?
Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: Kentucky is on a 5-game winning streak since dropping their conference opener at Alabama. During the stretch, the Cats found ways to win at different paces and with different players leading the way. Their defense is night and day from where it was in November. Clearly, the Cats are peaking at the right time of the year going into their final non-conference game. Kansas looks beatable every night in the Big 12. They don't have a double-digit on the books the entire month of January thus far. The Jayhawks also have a 1-3 road record. Inspired play, a limping opponent and what promises to be an electric crowd Saturday evening suggests momentum is on the Cat's side.
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: Kentucky’s coming into this game with more established scoring options than Kansas on a game-to-game basis. Dedric Lawson is as skilled as any player in college basketball, but he’s their only consistent offensive piece. Kentucky’s guards match up well with Kansas. LaGerald Vick is Kansas’ best scoring guard. He started the season off red hot, but has cooled down a bit as the year has progressed. With Azubuike out for the season, Kansas doesn’t have an anchor in the paint. That shows, as Kansas ranks 123rd in the country in blocks. Kansas’ defense as a whole has been lackluster this season, as they rank 179th in opponent three point field goal percentage. These rankings, coupled with the Kentucky starting to hit their stride offensively, don’t necessarily bode well for the Jayhawks come Saturday.
David Sisk, Staff Writer: It seems like I have started every prediction of late by saying Kentucky is playing their best ball of the season, but that is the case with each and every passing game. The confidence level has picked up for each player, and their defense is getting more solid as the season goes.
From the Kansas side, they are a different team without their big man Udoka Azubuike. Kansas started the season a perfect 9-0 with impressive victories over Tennessee, Michigan State, Marquette, and Villanova. Since the big man's injury at that point they are 7-3, including a 1-3 mark on the road. Whereas John Calipari has been able to consistently build since day one, Bill Self has found himself trying to find the proper Plan B since they have a glaring vacancy in the middle.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: It's not a vintage KU team offensively. Ordinarily they are so difficult to guard and can kill you so many ways. This is still one of the nation's better offensive teams but it's not elite and you can focus on trying to take away the one or two things they're really good at, as opposed to being left backtracking because they have no weaknesses.
They don't shoot the three ball as well as in some past years and that's coupled with the noticeable drop off inside (see above: Azubuike).
While Kansas has still had some resume moments with Azubuike out, they have not been great on the road. Besides, Kentucky is playing very well.
What reasons should there be for concern?
Taylor: On the flip side, despite personnel losses and close calls in conference play, Kansas continues to win in a competitive league like the Big 12. The primary reason for that is Memphis transfer, Dedric Lawson. The senior forward averages 19.5 points a contest and steadied Kansas with huge games in a close loss at West Virginia and a victory over a good Iowa State team. Lawson has the ability to take over a game and Kentucky has a track record this season of letting an opposing player get hot stay hot.
Graf: Dedric Lawson. If you’ve watched Kansas play this year, you’ll know that he’s the star of the show. The Memphis transfer is averaging nearly 20 points and 11 rebounds a game this season. He’s not a great three point shooter, shooting only 26% on the season from long range. Still, the best part of his game is working his man from the 3 point line to the rim and finishing in traffic. He handles the ball like a big-bodied guard and the only player that can successfully guard him on a consistent basis will be PJ Washington. If PJ gets in foul trouble, look for Lawson to exploit Kentucky’s other bigs.
Sisk: The Jayhawks are still ranked ninth in the country, and it's still Kansas. The roster is loaded with elite talent such as Dedric Lawson, LaGerald Vick, Devon Dotson, and Quentin Grimes. Vick is one of the top 3-point shooters in the country. They are loaded with big time guards, and Lawson will be as good as anyone Kentucky sees all year. The power forward averages 19.5 points and 10.9 rebounds in one of the rare players who can take a game over.
Rowland: Remember when No. 20 Kentucky went into Lawrence, Kan., during the 2015-16 regular season to take on a much more hyped No. 4 Jayhawk team? Not many UK fans seemed to expect a win, but those Wildcats - lacking in real options besides Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray - took KU to overtime at the Phog. This is still Kansas, just like that was still Kentucky - struggles, warts and all. Kansas does have more warts than usual but they absolutely have enough talent to stun the home crowd.
Also, we've heard and said a lot about how Kansas is struggling. How bad has it really been? They just defeated No. 24 Iowa State. KU did lose by one point at WVU but overall the Jayhawks are 3-1 in games against Top 25 games with Udoka Azubuike out of action.
What's your prediction for the game and UK's MVP?
Taylor: Kentucky 80, Kansas 74. The Cats looked inspired to play in big games against Auburn and Mississippi State. More importantly, they found ways to build big leads, even if they let them dwindle. I think the Cats will have several runs that will keep Kansas at bay for most of the game due to their defense. Tyler Herro is on a hot streak and that continues against the Jayhawks. He will be the Cats' MVP, notching 16 points and a few steals.
Graf: Kentucky 83, Kansas 72. Kentucky has more horses in the stable for this matchup. This Kansas team isn’t the same make up of a typical Bill Self squad, as they have major holes. Reid Travis controls the paint against a Kansas team lacking a true rim protector, pacing the Cats with around 20 points.
Sisk: I think the MVP could very well be either Reid Travis or P.J. Washington. I spoke with a college coach today and he told me that a team has to take away what Kentucky does best. When I asked what that was he said "getting the ball inside." That makes the loss of the 7-foot-0, 270 pound Azubuike all the bigger. Lawson will be able to handle himself quite well inside, but there is strength in numbers, and the Cats have too much in the interior.
As Bill Self looks for answers, he has started to switch all screens. This could confuse Kentucky early, but as they figure it out, mismatches will be created, especially inside. If the norm holds true, the Jayhawks will only start one player over 6-foot-5. Travis and Washington should have a field day with that. Kentucky 76 Kansas 71
Rowland: Kentucky 75, Kansas 74. I'm picking the Wildcats to win but the more I think about it the more I think it will not be easy. Kentucky's MVP: PJ Washington, who plays a second consecutive excellent game.
