Roundtable and predictions: UK-Auburn
With one of Kentucky's biggest games of the season a day away the Cats Illustrated staff heads back to the Roundtable for a discussion of what to expect at Auburn.
What are the main reasons Kentucky fans should be optimistic going into Saturday's game?
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: The Cats showed they could go into a hostile environment and play well with their 69-49 win at Georgia. This is a more difficult challenge, for certain, but I like the mindset that UK displayed on Tuesday. From an Xs and Os standpoint, the Cats' bigs have an advantage in this one IF guys like PJ Washington and Nick Richards play to their full potential.
Warren Taylor, Staff Writer: Kentucky's second-half defense in SEC play has been superb thus far, especially Tuesday night at Georgia. The Cats' stout defending has offset their offensive inconsistency. UK has also had solid bench play from different players to counteract silent nights from some of their bigger guns. Add in Ashton Hagans play at the point over the past five games and Kentucky looks like a team on the rise.
Travis Graf, Special Contributor: Watching the past few games, you have the feeling that if the bigs can get out of their slump, Kentucky could potentially turn the corner based on their guard play. Hagans, Quickley and Herro have all been playing good minutes of late, including all 3 grading out extremely well defensively against Georgia. Auburn is a much tougher contest, but Kentucky has their guards playing the best basketball of the season so far. This is good news for the Cats, who will have to put pressure on Auburn’s guards by scoring baskets and getting out in transition. If Auburn gets behind, they shoot even more 3’s than normal (already 25th in the country in attempts). Auburn shoots a lot of threes, but is only 108th in the country in 3 point shooting percentage at 35%. Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are great offensive players, but analytics show that they have a negative impact on the box score defensively.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: There's no question it's going to be tough to win on the road at Auburn, but I think some folks are overrating the Tigers a bit. They can beat most teams any given night, but Kentucky's "A" game is definitely good enough to carry the day even on the road. Auburn is a good defensive team, not a great one (35th in Adj D per KenPom) and (also according to KenPom) these teams are virtually identical in terms of strength of performance so far this season. The Tigers are 246th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage so Kentucky should get plenty of chances to clean up its own misses. That, coupled with Ashton Hagans' ability to elevate his game seemingly every time out, tells me the Cats have a real shot. If Kentucky plays as well as it did in road games against UofL and UGA, I think they win.
Why should fans be concerned?
Drummond: Auburn shoots the 3-pointer as well (or perhaps more precisely, as much) as anyone UK will face in the SEC. Bryce Brown and Jared Harper have the green light to fire away anywhere at anytime. They are No. 2 and No. 4 in the league in 3-pointers made, and that's a scary thought for a UK defense that has been torched from the arc at times this season. I would also be concerned with those guards attacking Ashton Hagans and trying to get him in early foul trouble. We have yet to see how UK would respond to that situation since Hagans emerged as its catalyst.
Taylor: Auburn has a variety of options to choose from on offense and can tickle the twine from deep. The Cats' struggle to defend the 3-point line this season is well documented. They can't play lazy defense beyond the arc or Auburn will be able to build an early double-digit lead, and with the minor slump, Kentucky has been in on offense that doesn't bode well for the Cats.
Graf: Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are an electric and efficient back court. They both shoot over 38% from 3 on the season and only combine for 4 turnovers a game. In fact, Auburn ranks first in SEC play with only 38 turnovers during their conference slate. The main component to Ashton Hagans’ game is being disruptive and causing turnovers and he will have his work cut out for him against two really smart ball handlers. Auburn is a really good shot blocking team, ranking 7th in the country with 98 blocks to date. This is the last thing a struggling Reid Travis wants to face and he must contribute more this weekend for the Cats to come out victorious.
Rowland: Going on the road in conference play is never easy, especially when you're Kentucky and the target is always there. When you're playing in an especially hostile environment against one of the most talented teams in the league, who also has a lot to play for, it's even more difficult. The Tigers are 9-0 at Auburn Arena this year and they are fresh off dominant wins against UGA and Texas A&M. With the way Kentucky has defended the three-point shot this year - UGA's 4/27 game as a recent exception - Auburn's three-point shooting is concerning to say the least.
What's your prediction for the game's outcome and Kentucky's MVP?
Drummond: Auburn 80, Kentucky 73. This will be a really difficult game for the Cats to pull out. They'll have to play their best game of the season -- or something along the lines of the North Carolina effort -- to have a chance. If UK wins, Keldon Johnson will have to bounce back from his scoreless game at UGA to be the MVP.
Taylor: Kentucky 77, Auburn 73. The trendy picks is to go against Kentucky in this game, but for some reason, I think the Cats know they have a good chance to make an early conference statement here and P.J. Washington is due for a huge game. He'll go off for a double-double and will lead the Cats to their fourth SEC win.
Graf: Kentucky 82, Auburn 80. Auburn plays at pretty fast pace, averaging 74 possessions a game. This will be a track meet, as Kentucky struggles to stop Auburn’s 3 point barrage and Auburn struggles to stop Kentucky’s guards and wings from scoring in the paint. Tyler Herro is the MVP as he is matched up against Auburn’s worst defensive starter in an up and down game.
Rowland: Kentucky 77, Auburn 76. Hagans will lead the Cats to victory with a flurry of dazzling defensive plays that turn into Kentucky points the other direction and while the Tigers hit their share of three-pointers they go through enough cold stretches with ill-advised attempts to let the Cats make up the difference.