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Published Mar 15, 2019
Roundtable and predictions: UK-Alabama
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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There's a lot on the line in Nashville. A number one seed, the opportunity to play potential third and fourth round games in Louisville, and another SEC championship.

But Kentucky has to get through Alabama on Friday night for a best case scenario to work out.

Cats Illustrated writers are breaking down the matchup, which tips at 7 pm EST tonight.

What are the main reasons for Kentucky fans to feel optimistic about tonight's game against Alabama?

David Sisk: Kentucky enters the Southeastern Conference Tournament looking to solidify a one seed in the Big Dance as well as well as gain revenge against the Alabama Crimson Tide who defeated the Wildcats in Tuscaloosa, 77-75, all the way back on January 5.

After that game, Alabama went 7-10 in conference play, while the Cats went 15-2. Kentucky opened up as a 10.5 point favorite. Alabama has been an up and down team. In Thursday night's win over Ole Miss, the Tide didn't overly impress, but there were some things they done well, particularly a 19 rebound edge over the smaller opponent. The offense was stagnant at times and it seemed the guards had trouble getting in space with the two post look. Defensively, Alabama will run half court man to man. They do have a shot blocker on the back end, but Ole Miss struggled to knock down jump shots. Unlike the Rebels, Kentucky will have a post game to go inside too.

Jeff Drummond: Kentucky should come into this game fairly confident despite Bama owning a 77-75 win over the Cats this season. There are a number of important factors to remember when considering the previous matchup: (1) It was Jan. 5. That was almost 10 weeks ago, an eternity in hoops terms, and this UK team has grown and evolved dramatically since that game, especially on the defensive end of the floor; (2) It was a road game, which is always a challenge in the SEC; and (3) the Crimson Tide's Tevin Mack had a career day with six 3-pointers against the Cats, and it was barely enough to beat UK.

Warren Taylor: Kentucky isn't the team that took an L in Tuscaloosa two months ago. The Cats are better defensively and should get Reid Travis back tomorrow. As competitive as this Kentuck squad is, I imagine they are chomping at the bit to have a chance to avenge one of their five regular-season losses. On top of that, Bama went nuts from 3 in the first game. I don't see that happening this time around, which bodes well for the Cats.

Justin Rowland: The earlier loss to Alabama should be a great source of motivation for Kentucky. They responded well at the time and I think they'll dig into their mental reserves and find a little grievance as added motivation. Kentucky has a lot to play for with a one seed and Louisville on the line. Kentucky has improved in key areas that Alabama thrived in from that first game, too. They defend jump shots well now. They didn't do that nearly as well back then. And the rebounding numbers from that game were somewhat of an aberration. Of course, UK will have the big crowd advantage tonight.

What are the main reasons for concern?

Sisk: Alabama is and up and down team as we said earlier, but they can warm it up against the best of teams. They are one of the few teams that can combine outside play with inside presence.

Avery Johnson said in his post game press conference that he wanted to go back to playing a bigger lineup and playing rugged basketball. That look means that Reid Travis and E.J. Montgomery must be able to bang. Meanwhile, the fate of the entire Western world hangs in the balance while we wait to see if Reid Travis will be back and to what extent he can go. They may need some of him against this big lineup.

Drummond: Alabama has some of the elements that can give UK problems at times. The Crimson Tide are long at almost every position, and they can shoot the 3 from multiple positions. They are streaky from the arc, but if they get hot, it could be an competitive game. Avery Johnson's team is also playing for its NCAA life, so a chance to notch another win against the Cats will have them playing with a lot of heart and effort. UK needs to understand that sense of urgency and match it.

Taylor: The Tide are athletic in the post. Kentucky's bigs struggle with that. Bama controlled the glass in January and dominated it against Ole Miss. If they can do that again they will be able to keep the game at a face that favors them. It may also take Reid Travis time to gel with the team again. Alabama also has momentum since they've already played a game. That should never be overlooked in an opening round contest for a cold team.

Rowland: There's a reason Alabama beat Kentucky the first time around. Yes, it was in Tuscaloosa. But they have some of the ingredients you need to beat the Cats. They aren't a great rebounding team on the season but there have been times, such as last night against Ole Miss with a 50-30 rebounding edge, when the Tide has looked like one of the more formidable teams in the post on a physical level. They have some talented guards. They can contest shots around the rim. And they're playing with a sense of desperation even if their win over Ole Miss made a bid more likely.

What's your prediction for the outcome and who will be the Wildcats' MVP?

Sisk: I do think this game sets up well particularly for Tyler Herro. I noticed that Ole Miss had many wide open mid range shots off the curl, which is in Herro's wheelhouse.

I believe the combination on Montgomery and Richards can defend Alabama's post play, The challenge will be to keep them off the boards. It wouldn't hurt for them to score some buckets on the offensive end, though. Kentucky 75, Alabama 62.

Drummond: Kentucky 80, Alabama 69. The Cats avenge their previous loss to the Tide as Tyler Herro lights the nets on fire in Nashville to claim my MVP honors.

Taylor: Kentucky 72, Alabama 60. The Cats have a lot to play for during the SEC Tournament. They know that and Coach Cal does too. I expect to see a determined and March-ready Kentucky team storm out of the gate. Tyler Herro will continue to score from everywhere on the court and will notch 16 points in his SEC Tourney debut.

Rowland: Kentucky 76, Alabama 71. Keldon Johnson leads the way for Kentucky in a high intensity matchup of teams with a lot to play for. He attacks the basket time and again, getting to the line and finishing around the rim through contact.

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