On paper this year's Kentucky football schedule doesn't appear to be one of the more difficult slates the Wildcats have faced in recent years and it certainly isn't as daunting as last year's makeshift schedule.
Each year as the season approaches Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland takes on the task of ranking each of UK's 2021 football games. A number of factors are considered, including talent, team strengths, and where the game falls on the calendar and relative to other contests.
Without further ado, here are Kentucky's 2021 football games ranked from most to least difficult.
1. at Georgia (10/16)
There's no debate here. Georgia will be ranked higher than any other team on Kentucky's schedule in the preseason. The game is in Athens, where Kentucky has not won since Randall Cobb was around (not yet a streak to be ashamed of). UGA has been a tough matchup in recent years for Kentucky, perhaps because the Bulldogs is very content to play the kind of physical, grind it out game the Cats have favored in recent years, only with more four- and five-star talents. The kicker? This year the game comes immediately after contests against Florida and LSU.
If Kentucky is going to reach Atlanta the easiest path will always be to beat Georgia head to head. Otherwise, UGA would need to lose two additional games and UK would have to go otherwise unbeaten. That's a big ask this year with the team UGA is bringing back.
2. Florida (10/2)
Dan Mullen has not maintained an aura of invincibility for Kentucky in the same way that former Gator coach Steve Spurrier did. Mullen has a very good career record against Kentucky but Mark Stoops has defeated him once at Florida and once before, and there have been plenty of close games. Still, Mullen has generally had the upper hand.
There's no Kyle Trask. There's no Kyle Pitts. Emory Jones takes over at quarterback. The general consensus seems to be that Florida's offense will probably take a step back and perhaps a big one after last year's machine. The defense will probably improve, but how much?
3. LSU (10/9)
There is no question that on paper this is one of Kentucky's more difficult games of the season. It's just hard to tell how tough it will be beyond that. LSU won a national championship two years ago and then dropped to 5-5 last year. The Tigers were fortunate to finish .500 last year but did finish strong.
One big problem for LSU last year was the offensive line play. Even with Dare Rosenthal at Kentucky that should be improved. The Tigers should also be much better on defense.
I've felt this could be an opportunity for an upset because of LSU's volatility and the fact that Ed Orgeron doesn't have the same kind of overall track record as Nick Saban or even a lot of coaches that don't have a national championship. But it will be a tough game, even in Lexington, and LSU will be the favorite on paper.
4. Missouri (9/11)
That this is the fourth-most difficult game of Kentucky's schedule (or in the conversation for it, even if you disagree) shows how much more manageable the Wildcats' slate is this year than it was last year.
But that's not a knock against the Tigers. The reality is they handled UK last year in Columbia, thanks to Connor Bazelak showing real maturity for a freshman quarterback. Mizzou found balance and controlled the game throughout.
Kentucky gets this game in Lexington and it's the second game of the year so many will call it the most important on the schedule. UK will have some advantages on paper, but Eliah Drinkwitz is building some momentum, has a quarterback, and a defense that should be improved.
5. Mississippi State (10/30)
This is one game that could look very different based on how the team's season is going. Mike Leach programs take a little while to get going at times and last year the Bulldogs kept their heads down and plowed ahead with the Air Raid plan in spite of not finding consistent success. MSU should be improved this year but how much?
On the one hand, this game is in Starkville. On the other hand, UK handled this team, especially defensively, last year. There's a bye week for Kentucky before this game takes place so that will be some needed preparation as well as much-needed rest coming after the Florida-LSU-Georgia stretch.
6. at South Carolina (9/25)
Shane Beamer takes over a program that was a mess at the end of last season, but the situation in Columbia is probably not as bad as it seems based on last year's results. When you fire your head coach during the season and have that many opt-outs or players out of action it makes for tough sledding.
South Carolina would be lower on this list any other year, and it would be lower this year except it's a road game in a hostile environment still fairly early in the season.
7. Tennessee (11/6)
This is the biggest rebuild at Tennessee that a Volunteer coach has inherited in a very long time and that is actually saying something given that the Volunteers have an overall losing record over the last decade. UK has now defeated UT three times in the last decade, so while there's still a big hole in the series record to climb out of, this game doesn't have that daunting "here we go again" feel that it used to. Especially after last year's 34-7 dominating win in Knoxville.
UT is going to play faster but if your defense can handle the tempo change that Josh Heupel will install then the Vols will be facing an unusual kind of talent disadvantage. There are questions at several spots on the field.
8. at Louisville (11/27)
The last two times Kentucky has faced Louisville (2018 & 2019) the Cats' talent advantage especially in the trenches has been the difference. Kentucky has controlled the line of scrimmage against the Cardinals and the matchup has not appeared to be a good one for the Cards. How much has changed since then that would alter that underlying dynamic?
If you look at Vegas projected win totals or what pundits are saying preseason then Louisville will not be a pushover. But Kentucky is still the more talented, more physical, and deeper team. Louisville has not recruited at the level of Kentucky's SEC opponents ranked above them.
This game is on the road but motivation is never an issue in this rivalry and there will be plenty of blue in the stadium.
9. at Vanderbilt (11/13)
Clark Lea inherited the kind of rebuild that Mark Stoops had when he took over in Lexington before the 2013 season. He may get it done in time but this first year has to be about building a foundation. Vandy was 0-9 last year. It does return a lot of starters and the change in coach is at least an opportunity to start to create a new culture and that alone can add to a team's competitiveness.
Even as a winless team Vanderbilt was occasionally competitive last year (Kentucky, Mississippi State, Texas A&M), but not often.
If has to be a win for Kentucky to have the kind of season fans want.
10. New Mexico State (11/20)
The unaffiliated Aggies had their 2020 season wiped out by COVID-19 but did get spring games against Tarleton State (inexplicably losing 43-17) and Dixie State, the latter it defeated only by a touchdown. This is a program that has won more than three games only twice in the last decade. There is inexperience up and down the roster.
NMSU will be a big underdog in Lexington and this is only the third easiest game on the schedule because the two teams behind them are in really dire straits.
11. ULM (9/4)
It will be neat to see Kentucky take on a Terry Bowden-coached team but on paper the Warhawks don't seem to present much of a challenge. This team was not competitive at all last season and it seems like the perfect tune-up for Liam Coen's new offense.
12. Chattanooga (9/18)
An FCS team will always be in the last spot, although ULM could conceivably be worse. When Chattanooga takes on Power Five teams in history the results have not been good.
