Cats Illustrated staff writers and contributors have Michigan State on their minds with the Champions Classic almost here.
Below you'll find our regular roundtable and predictions for Kentucky's season opener, which also happens to be a No. 1 vs No. 2 showdown.
Why should Kentucky fans feel good about Tuesday's matchup with Michigan State?
Jeff Drummond: For starters, it's just a fun way to tip off the season. I don't think the Cats are really ready for this kind of challenge, but I think it's good that there's a certain amount of threat involved with this game. Kentucky has always seemed to play better when there's a very real possibility of losing going into a matchup. Some of the returning players remember what happened last year against Duke -- when UK was arguably (and somewhat inexplicably) way too cocky -- and I think they'll be pushing the younger guys to both respect the opponent and go hard. At the end of the night, talent won't be the reason if UK falls short.
Travis Graf: Kentucky has the versatility to spread the Spartans out on the defensive end. If the ‘Cats are hitting shots from the outside, they’ll have a good chance to win on Tuesday night. Kentucky will have a size advantage at most spots and it’ll be interesting to see if Nick Richards tries to give it a go (I’m not holding my breath). Last year, the Spartans ranked 325th in the country in turnovers. If those problems carry over into this season, the Spartans could be in trouble against Kentucky’s disruptive guards and wings.
David Sisk: The first reason to feel good is because this is a talented Kentucky roster. Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley look to have made major improvements since last season. This could be an electric backcourt while the freshmen forwards have also shown promise. It isn't discussed as much as it should be that Michigan State is down four of its top six scorers from last season. Nick Ward, Kenny Goins, and Matt McQuaid graduated, while Josh Langford is still injured. Justin Ahrens may not play either. Ward was a load inside, Goins did a lot of different things in the post, and McQuaid was a prototypical Tom Izzo player who took a lot of stress off Cassius Winston in the backcourt.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky should be one of the nation's best defensive teams and that is something opponents generally can't simulate in practice. There are a number of players who are capable of making plays on both ends of the court. UK has the backcourt depth and skill to lock down the perimeter. MSU is missing Joshua Langford and that's a huge issue.
What are the biggest reasons for concern?
Jeff Drummond: Michigan State has a veteran team and a great point guard in Cassius Winston. The Spartans are also one of the nation's most rugged, physical teams on a yearly basis under Tom Izzo, so they might be able to exploit some of the rebounding issues we saw from the Cats in exhibition play. Kentucky hasn't been able to get sophomore forward E.J. Montgomery rolling in the preseason, and junior center Nick Richards may be out with his ankle injury, so the Cats may be outmatched in the frontcourt.
Travis Graf: Last season, you saw how easy it is for a young and immature team to lose focus on a big stage. It wouldn’t be completely shocking to see this young team do that as well. Kentucky’s also struggled rebounding against inferior opponents in exhibition play. Michigan State typically fares well in the rebounding department and ranked 2nd in the country in total rebounds last season. Cassius Winston is one of the toughest guards to contain in all of college basketball and I could see him picking up a couple of quick fouls early against Kentucky’s overly-aggressive guards.
David Sisk: Michigan State is talented enough to be preseason number one. They are experienced and their toughness scares me with UK having so many youngsters in their first college game. State makes hay with their rebounding, defense, and physicality inside. The Cats could really use Nick Richards at his best, but that looks like it may not happen. That will put a lot on the shoulders of E.J. Montgomery. If he isn't a standout against Xavier Tillman, then I don't like Kentucky's chances.
Justin Rowland: With Nick Richards likely out and with UK's rebounding struggles in the exhibition season, that's a potential matchup nightmare against a Michigan State team known for bludgeoning so many opponents into submission over the years. UK is also facing arguably the nation's best player, and he's a senior. Kentucky had the look of a good team in the preseason, but they still look like something of a work in progress.
What's your prediction for the game and how it will play out?
Jeff Drummond: Michigan State 73, Kentucky 66 -- It just feels like everything lines up for the Spartans to have the upper hand in this matchup. Perhaps if they play again in March, the Cats can turn the tables.
Travis Graf: Michigan State 68, Kentucky 62. The game is close throughout, but Michigan State’s veteran leadership and rebounding give them an advantage at key junctures. The ‘Cats show a lot of promise, particularly as a three-guard team, and fans have a positive take away despite the loss. Tyrese Maxey shows All-American potential as his shot starts to fall.
David Sisk: Michigan State 75 Kentucky 73. The first key is how does Tom Izzo utilize Cassius Winston. His matchup with Ashton Hagans should be epic. but look for a ton of mismatches to create switches. I believe Nate Sestina will be in many of those. He can't keep Winston in front of him so how will John Calipari respond? Secondly, Montgomery needs to outplay Tillman. The Spartans are one of the top rebounding teams in the country. So Montgomery, Sestina, and Brooks will have to produce.
Don't be surprised if Calipari goes zone to keep Winston in front of them. On the other side, State has had problems in the past with big posts who can step out and make the perimeter jumper. Sestina could do damage. If Hagans can slow down Winston then I am interested to see where Izzo gets offense. Freshman wing, Rocket Watts, is very talented. I like Kentucky's full roster better than State's, but I am concerned about Winston and especially Tillman in the post. Either way, it could go down to the wire.
Justin Rowland: Kentucky 66, Michigan State 65. I've read or listened to so many pundits pick Michigan State in this game, and I get it. They're the more experienced team. Kentucky has frontcourt questions and maybe frontcourt issues. Cassius Winston is the best player on the court. But something tells me Kentucky is going to be out to make a statement. UK usually -- last year aside -- competes well on this early-season big stages and UK has the backcourt defense to hang tough against Winston.
