Paths to an Upset in Athens
Even though Kentucky is ranked the No. 11 team in the country it would be one of the biggest upsets of the 2021 college football season if the Wildcats win Between the Hedges.
CI publisher Justin Rowland takes a look at some possible paths to an upset and breaks down how realistic those scenarios might be based on what we know of the two teams.
Get off to a fast start and take the crowd out of the game.
This is premised on the idea that a Sanford Stadium that's quiet in stunned silence will be a lot easier to handle. Less impact on the snap count, your team's confidence grows, while only doubt grows in the Bulldogs.
How feasible is this?
Georgia averages 15.7 points per first quarter this year. That is second in the nation behind only Tennessee, which Kentucky will see in the next month. Georgia's defense is fourth in the nation in allowing only 1.5 points per first quarter this season. In other words, Georgia has put opponents away early and they have done it with excellent play on both sides of the ball.
As good as UGA's pass defense has been this year it has been its best early in games. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 40% of their first quarter pass attempts (14/35) with three interceptions and only five first down passes through the air.
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If all that sounds demoralizing the good news is Kentucky has been a very good first quarter team this year as well. The Wildcats average 9.8 first quarter points and surrender only 4.2, with those ranking 17th (offense) and 38th (defense) respectively.
Getting off to a "fast" start against Georgia, based on this season, might mean getting to the second quarter within one score. If it's a 7-0 or a 10-3 or a 3-0 game, even if Kentucky's trailing, that at least puts you in a better position than most teams the Dawgs have faced this year. Creating some discomfort and pressure into the second and third quarters could add a variable — how will the Dawgs respond? They won a close game against Clemson but there haven't been any others.
This fast start ingredient is probably more essential than any other here, but it alone won't be enough.
Win the turnover battle and convert those takeaways into points.
Here's the classic ingredient for an upset and the ultimate equalizer in football. It's almost cliche to mention turnovers when you're talking about upsets because even the most casual fan will cite them as a driving factor. But it's often true.
Of course, Kentucky was the favorite in four straight games to start the season and lost the turnover battle in each game. Underdog opponents were 0-4 in those games against the 'Cats. That's a testament to UK's resilience and also Mark Stoops' comfort level as a favorite but also coaching in close games. So even if UK wins the turnover margin it's no guarantee. But it would help and it's hard to see UK pulling off the upset without winning this margin.
The good news is Kentucky's turnover woes have stabilized. Ball security hasn't been a big issue the past couple of weeks. Still, Kentucky is 126th in the country in turnover margin (-8) and it's a small miracle it is 6-0 with a number like that. If this year has taught us anything it's that turnover margin does not always determine a team's success. But it might in this game.
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Kentucky has not forced many turnovers this season and UGA probably won't have a wide open enough game plan to make it easy to force many miscues in this one. Playing fairly conservative has worked for Kirby Smart in recent years against Kentucky.
The worry about the Bulldogs defense here has to be interceptions. Levis has six picks through six games but only one total in the last two weeks against some talented defensive backs for Florida and LSU.
Because Kentucky plays conservatively and has been turnover prone the 'Cats need every break they can get here. Every bounce after a ball hits the turf. Every ball that hits a DBs hands has to be intercepted.
South Carolina managed to beat Georgia a few years ago because of several UGA interceptions. This is a different UGA team but the same principle applies. Turnovers will always be one of the best paths to an upset.
Be the better team in the red zone and win those situations.
Unfortunately for Kentucky the Bulldogs have been a perfect 10/10 in the red zone the last two weeks. That included six touchdowns (60% TD rate) and four field goals. They were 7/8 in the red zone with five touchdowns against Vanderbilt and scored four touchdowns in five red zone possessions against UAB.
For the season Georgia is only 59th in the country in red zone scoring rate (86.2%) The Bulldogs' touchdown rate of 59% is just 80th in the country. UGA has settled for red zone field goals six times in the last three weeks. This isn't a crisis area for UGA, it's just not one of their biggest strengths (and they have many strengths).
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Kentucky is 25th in the country in red zone scoring (91.3%) and 7th nationally in red zone touchdowns (78%). Having more offensive balance has been a big help in this area.
But Kentucky's defense has allowed 15 scores in 16 trips to the red zone (94%, 117th NCAA) and a 69% touchdown rate.
Dominate time of possession and shorten the game.
In order to do this there are a few things that have to be accomplished.
Averaging enough yards on first down to create favorable down and distance situations on third down is important because you have to keep the chains moving to keep UGA's defense on the field.
Running the ball effectively in general will be essential on this point because the short efficiency-based passing game is not UK's strength and cannot be relied upon as a substitute or part of an extended running game, so to speak. This is strength on strength with Kentucky's powerful ground game averaging 260 yards per game in SEC play and UGA having one of the nation's best rushing defenses. In recent years the result has been meeting in the middle with UK rushing for 138 against UGA in 2020 and 160 in 2019. Of course, UK needed more than that in those games because there was no passing game to complement that.
Georgia has controlled the ball for longer than Kentucky on average this year with the Cats on offense for an average of 30 minutes and 44 seconds (45th NCAA) and UGA on offense for an average of 32 minutes and 36 seconds (15th).
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There are reasons for this beyond UGA having lots of talent. The Bulldogs have run the ball 253 times compared to 147 pass attempts. That's the 16th-highest run percentage in college football this year. Kentucky has run the ball 64% of the time which is the 11th-highest run percentage in college football, so smart money says that once again we might see two teams preferring to beat the opponent up on the ground.
In short, it's never a surprise to see UK win time of possession under Mark Stoops. The 'Cats don't control that battle like some service academy teams but it's the kind of game Stoops likes to manage. It's just hard to win that battle by much against UGA given the way the Bulldogs run the ball and their preference for doing that.
Win the explosive play battle.
As analytics have taken on greater importance in football over the last several years a few stat categories have taken on greater significance when we break games down. One of those categories would be explosive plays. The team that wins the explosive play category has a real advantage and this is often a determinative factor in the game's outcome.
We know that Kentucky has been very good at preventing explosive plays for quite a while now under Mark Stoops. It seems reasonable to think that because of Kentucky's experience in its defensive scheme, and the scheme itself, that UGA might not have too many explosive plays.
Georgia is 58th in the country in 20+ yard plays, 72nd in 30+ yard plays, and 60th in 40+ yard plays. As good as UGA's offense has been, and while the threat of the explosive has been there, it has been more about dominance and efficiency.
Kentucky is 48th in 20+ yard plays, 25th in 30+ yard plays, and tied with Georgia for 60th in 40+ yard plays.
Defensively Kentucky is the No. 1 team in the nation with only 11 plays of 20+ yards allowed, 10th in 30+ yard plays allowed, and tied for 7th with only two plays of 40+ yards permitted.
Georgia's defensive numbers and ranks are almost identical on explosives.
In many respects these teams are carbon copies of one another in terms of where the yards and the points come from. The difference is when you scale it back, UK's defense has allowed 73 plays of 10+ yards and UGA has only allowed 40.
There aren't many realistic paths to an upset as more than a three touchdown favorite, but it's possible that Kentucky could create more explosive plays since the defense is so good at preventing them and the rate at which the offenses achieve them is similar.
It's also very difficult to line up and beat Georgia in a game of smashmouth football. That's the wheelhouse for both these teams, with UGA just possessing more talent. So explosives could be an equalizer. UK has not been able to create enough of them in recent years against the Dawgs.
Kentucky gets better quarterback play.
Quarterback play is another equalizer in some games. In terms of raw talent this might be a glimmer of hope for Kentucky. Will Levis has it in spades and nobody is going to mistake Stetson Bennett for a transcendent talent.
Levis was fantastic against LSU even if the numbers were a bit muted because of the success Kentucky had on the ground. If Levis brings the same level of performance against UGA as he brought against the Tigers then it could make things interesting.
Georgia's quarterback situation is drumming up a lot of attention in the world of talking heads. In spite of Bennett's place as the ultimate underdog, a former two-star recruit surrounded by All-SEC players, he has quarterbacked something of an offensive machine since JT Daniels has been out these last weeks.
Bennett has completed 69% of his passes for 746 yards, 8 touchdowns, and two picks in the five games in which he's seen action. Last year Bennett was 9/13 for 131 yards against Kentucky but he had no touchdowns and two picks. UGA was able to survive those interceptions last season because Kentucky's offense was not a formidable challenge for the Bulldogs' defense. If Bennett has that kind of line against Kentucky this year it would be an opening for Kentucky to make things interesting.
The thing about Georgia's quarterback situation is even if Bennett or Daniels is having an off game the Dawgs have the horses to reel things back in and commit to the run, or to execute a very simple but physically punishing game plan with the pass off those runs. But what's different about Kentucky this year is the Wildcats have a quarterback whose best performance could really give an SEC defensive coordinator headaches.