With Kentucky taking on Southern Miss to start the 2024 college football regular season for both teams this weekend we're breaking down the matchup from many angles.
Here, the Cats Illustrated staff takes a stab at some over/under predictions. That might be more interesting than actual game predictions with Kentucky an overwhelming 28-point favorite.
Brock Vandagriff: O/U 275 passing yards
Jeff Drummond: Ordinarily, I would scoff at the notion of a Stoops quarterback pushing 300 yards in a season opener against an outmatched opponent. However, with UK missing its top running back, Chip Trayanum, due to injury and new OC Bush Hamdan wanting to make a strong impression in Game 1, I look for Vandagriff to potentially light it up against Southern Miss. He's got so many weapons at his disposal, including veteran wideouts Barion Brown and Dane Key. Give me the over, just by a bit.
Travis Graf: I’m going to go with the over here because Kentucky is wanting to play with more tempo, Southern Miss’ defense is outmatched, and Vandagriff has something to prove. I expect some big chunk plays throughout the course of the game, and this talented WR and TE group helps get him over that mark in the 3rd quarter.
Justin Rowland: Over. I think Brock hits USM over the top a couple of times on play action but also has a number of intermediate gains. Getting Vandagriff on the same page as those receivers with timing and communication before South Carolina is key. Kentucky's receivers have a talent advantage on the outside.
Kentucky rushing yards: O/U 180
Drummond: I think the ground game is going to be running a little behind the passing attack in Game 1 for the Cats. Until they get Chip Trayanum back from a hand injury and we learn more about the strengths and weaknesses of this offensive line, I think this comes in under what we would usually expect to see from a Stoops team in the season opener.
Graf: I’ll go over, but just barely and I think there could be a lot of rushing yards added to that number from the quarterbacks whether that’s Vandagriff or Wimsatt. I’m not bullish on the running game this season as a whole, but I don’t think they’ll meet much resistance in week one.
Rowland: I'll take the under, not for lack of effort. I think there will be a number of explosive plays by Kentucky in the passing game and that will cut into some of the yards the Cats could amass on the ground. Maybe this is a game for Gavin Wimsatt to get several rushing opportunities. While I'd expect Brock Vandagriff to run some they really need to keep him healthy for South Carolina. So the backs will get some run, but I think it will be solid success more than overwhelming.
Southern Miss Total Yards: O/U 300
Drummond: With expectations sky-high for the UK defense entering 2024, I think this number is going to come in under 300. I look for the Cats to dominate Game 1 on that side of the ball, maybe even scoring on their own. Look for the Golden Eagles' ground game to get shut down and some serious improvement from the UK secondary after a disappointing 2023 campaign.
Graf: Gonna go just under 300 yards here, and that’s still an impressive day from the defense as I look for the offense to score a lot of points and give Southern Miss opportunities for lots of possessions. If the game becomes a route in the 2nd half, the subs will get PR and that could account for a nice chunk of yardage too.
Rowland: I'll take the under here, although in today's game holding a team under 300 yards is an accomplishment. If this is a total blowout and the backups get into the game early then I could see USM getting over 300 in the second half sometime but just looking at this matchup straight up between the two opponents, I like UK's ability to stifle the Eagles. I don't see USM having much success running the ball and the Cats should tackle well enough on the perimeter to really bottle this offense up.
