NCAA Tournament Roundtable: Questions, predictions before the Big Dance
It's that time of year. March Madness is upon us, brackets are the talk of the entire country and Kentucky is heading out to Boise.
T.J. Walker, Jeff Drummond and Justin Rowland discuss topics relevant to the Wildcats and the tournament at large.
What are your initial thoughts on Kentucky's NCAA tournament draw as the five-seed in the South Region?
T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: It wasn't an easy draw for UK but it was fair. The Cats had some bad losses and missed several opportunities for quality wins. Kentucky is now one of the hottest teams in the country, but you can't ignore the negatives jut because UK is playing so well now. Davidson is a tricky first round matchup, Arizona has as much talent as any team not named Duke, and Virginia completely dominated college basketball this season. That's a tough road just to get to the Elite Eight. It's not ideal, but unless you're a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed it's going to be difficult.
Jeff Drummond, Managing Editor: I think it was somewhat predictable. A No. 5 seed was just about right, although I could have made a strong case for them earning a No. 4 with the SEC Tournament championship win over Tennessee. Alas, those Sunday triumphs don't mean a thing to anyone but the SEC folks counting the stacks of cash. But I digress... UK was placed in arguably the toughest region with a sequence of potential games that feature: (1) a team that made 26 3-pointers in a game this season; (2) the best player in the nation in the form of Arizona center Deandre Ayton; (3) the best team in the nation in the form of the Virginia Cavaliers; and (4) a Tennessee squad which has already beaten the Cats twice. That could be the Cats path to a Final Four. Piece of cake, right? At this point, you just come to expect it, but my view is you've got to beat good people sooner or later. It really comes down to whether your team is ready to play.
Justin Rowland, Publisher: A little tougher than it should have been but nothing too surprising. I think drawing Davidson in a dreaded 5-12 game is more of an "ouch" than potentially Arizona in the second. The Wildcats of the West have some flaws that would give Kentucky hope, although that's a really tough game unless Jarred Vanderbilt plays. The toughest part of the draw, for me, is UVA. That is an extremely difficult game even in Atlanta, because of how young Kentucky is, how unfamiliar they are with that team and the fact that the Cavaliers might be the best team in the country.
Who are your darkhorse picks to make a run?
Walker: Mizzou could lose in the first round but I'm more likely to pick Mizzou to the Elite Eight. Yes, the Tigers lost their first game with Michael Porter Jr. back, but they deserved to win and Porter Jr. was bad. Most of his mistakes were just missing open shots. That won't be the case next time and it's a favorable road for the Tigers. FSU is overrated and Xavier is the worst No. 1 seed. Don't be surprised to see Mizzou as the last SEC team standing in the NCAA Tournament.
Drummond: I like a couple of SEC teams, although they have traditionally made my brackets a mess when I placed confidence in them. Tennessee is a legitimate title contender if they get the right breaks. You may argue that a No. 3 seed really isn't a "darkhorse," but I don't think many people will be talking about them from a national perspective. Arkansas and Missouri are two other teams I like. The way Daniel Gafford is playing inside for the Razorbacks makes them a scary proposition for anyone, and the return of Michael Porter for the Tigers could pay big dividends if they can get some momentum going with a win or two to get him more comfortable on the court.
Rowland: I picked Gonzaga to the Final Four so as a four I suppose that could qualify. But with a West Region that's pretty wide open, maybe not.
What highly seeded team(s) do you see fizzling out?
Walker: Well, for Mizzou to make a run that would mean an early out for Xavier, which I think happens. Both Seton Hall and NC State can beat Kansas in the second round. Seton Hall would be the more likely candidate in my opinion, but both teams have shown they can beat great teams and if Udoka Azubuike can't go for the Jayhawks that will be a disaster for Bill Self.
Drummond: North Carolina (2), Cincinnati (2) and Texas Tech (3). I don't think we'll see two of the three beyond the first weekend.
Rowland: I also picked North Carolina to lose early, although I don't feel too great about that prediction. Auburn as a four looks really shaky right now and while 13 seeds don't have a great track record I have Charleston beating the Tigers in the first round. I also have Texas Tech losing in the second round and would be pretty surprised if the Red Raiders reach the Sweet 16. I didn't pick San Diego State to advance beyond the Round of 32 (because they'd probably face Michigan there), but that's an 11 seed that I wouldn't be surprised to see in the second weekend of the tournament.
What are your picks for the Final Four and who is your national champion?
Walker: Virginia, UNC, Purdue, Duke. The Blue Devils have the most talent and sometimes that matters and sometimes it doesn't. This year it's enough for Duke to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Duke wasn't given its normal cupcake draw, so the Blue Devils could be knocked in the Sweet 16 but they have too many weapons this year.Show original message
Drummond: I'm going with Virginia, Villanova, Michigan and Michigan State. I think the Cavaliers finally have the offense necessary to cut down the nets. They've been the best team I've seen all year, and it would take an extraordinary performance for someone to knock them out on a neutral floor. That amazing comeback with five points in the final 0.9 seconds to win at Louisville kind of felt like one of those moments that a lot of championship clubs look back and say, "Nothing is stopping us now."
Rowland: My Final Four (posted on Twitter early this week) includes Virginia, Gonzaga, Villanova and Michigan State, with UVA defeating the Zags and then Michigan State over 'Nova. The Cavaliers win a low-scoring national championship game against the Spartans. Of course, it's anybody's guess how this tournament will play out. I think UVA, Villanova and MSU have the best chance to reach the Final Four. The West is the one I have a really hard time projecting. I think North Carolina is probably the best team in that region but they've lost a lot of games so I have a hard time picking them to win four straight, let alone six straight, even though the first couple are in Charlotte.