Monday Thoughts on College Football
Week 4 is in the books and that means we've finally witnessed a full slate of intriguing matchups between strong teams. Those were the kinds of matchups we saw over the weekend.
Here are some Monday morning thoughts on the state of the SEC and the sport as a whole after all the recent action.
SEC Power Rankings ... If I had to give my 1-14 thoughts on the SEC right now I would go:
1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Auburn
5. Florida
6. Missouri
7. Texas A&M
8. Mississippi State
9. Kentucky
10. South Carolina
11. Ole Miss
12. Arkansas
13. Tennessee
14. Vanderbilt
It's hard to believe because it's so rare to say this, even so early in the season, but I feel like three different teams could legitimately win the SEC. I wish I could say four and throw Auburn in there, but I'm not sure their pass game is dynamic enough to keep pace with the other three.
Six teams can win the national championship ... That's the magic number I'd identify at this point in the season. Notre Dame is not technically eliminated from playoff contention and they proved themselves a worthy adversary on the homefield of elite competition, and Auburn is undefeated with a great resume and lots of talent. But I would still be surprised if either team won the championship. I would not be shocked to see any of the following teams win it: Clemson, Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Ohio State, or Oklahoma. Before the season I picked Alabama to win the championship. I'll stick with it for now, even if I don't feel great about it. Clemson hasn't looked like the best team in the country to me, yet, but they have the easiest path to the playoff and we know that Dabo's teams play at a very high level on the big stages. So far the most impressive team in the country might be Ohio State, but they haven't played much competition.
Wisconsin is doing it again ... Is there any program in the country that has done so much without the recruiting rankings to back it up? The Badgers probably recruit better talent than a lot of people actually realize, but there's no good reason for why this program should be this good. It's all about continuity, a great S&C program, and a commitment to a particular identity over a long period of time that has changed the culture there in such a positive way. Wisconsin has won 10 or more games nine times since 2005. Even on the weaker side of the Big Ten, that's a stunning achievement for a program with such a limited local talent base and in the shadow of Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, in terms of recruiting prestige within its own league.
Over the last five years Wisconsin is 5-0 in bowl games, with wins in the Outback, Holiday, Cotton, and Orange among those games. In the four years before that the Badgers competed in one Capital One (Citrus) Bowl and three Rose Bowls. For some reason, my instinct is to think about Wisconsin as an overachiever or an underdog. This is the second best program in the Big Ten.
That 35-14 win against Michigan was a sight to behold.
Speaking of Michigan ... It's just almost impossible to imagine Jim Harbaugh taking Michigan to the heights that the Wolverine faithful probably hoped he would when he was hired. This was supposed to be a team that seriously competed for Harbaugh's first Big Ten championship. As it stands, they have struggled to beat Army at home and were systematically dismantled and embarrassed at the hands of Wisconsin - a predictable outcome. They may rally to win eight, nine or ten games, but this program is such a long way from actually being nationally relevant at the highest level. Maybe the program is the expectations we have for a program with one national championship since World War II.
Even in defeat, respect for the Irish ... We've all been too hard on Notre Dame lately. The Irish were picked apart by an historically strong Clemson team in the playoff last season, but the way the Tigers worked Alabama the very next game should have served as absolution for that failure. Brian Kelly's Irish went into Athens, creating the biggest spectacle for any UGA non-conference game of all-time (and an absolutely awesome "red out" atmosphere with lights and all), and against a spread that rose to 16-points in the Bulldogs' favor, Notre Dame held their own. But for a late Georgia surge, perhaps due to slightly superior depth that showed up in speed late in the game, Notre Dame played UGA toe to toe. I would not drop Notre Dame lower than 8th, perhaps placing only Auburn ahead of them in the rankings from last week. They're legit. Not the best team in the country, probably not winning the title, but definitely a top-10 squad.
Gus Malzahn is in good graces with a fan base that changes its mind a lot ... We knew coming into the season that Auburn had a lot of talent, especially on that defensive line. Things have gone about as well as they could have for the Tigers so far this season. Now with wins against Oregon and Texas A&M, the latter being a road victory, AU has the best resume in college football and a freshman quarterback without big numbers but with a huge heart and all the intangibles you need at this level. Auburn might be the best third place divisional team we've seen in a long time.
FSU does the same thing every single week ... When Florida State was beating Louisville 21-0 you just knew the Cardinals were going to rally. Not because we know much of anything about Scott Satterfield's Cardinals (we don't yet). But because every single week Willie Taggart's bunch starts strong and then crumbles like a cookie.
I didn't see that one coming ... Washington State had gotten off to a great start under Mike Leach and they were one of my underrated picks coming into the season. For the Cougars to blow a 49-17 third quarter lead to UCLA, winless before that, was one of the wildest things we'll see all season. The 130 points scored in the game, a 67-63 UCLA road win, were a Pac-12 record. I'm not ready to say it's the beginning of a turnaround for Chip Kelly, but that's a big road win for the Bruins.
Credit where it's due ... I've been pretty vocal in stating I just can't see Clay Helton winning at the highest level at USC, but at the very least it looks like his tenure won't look like a total debacle. The Trojans may have lost a road game to BYU but they now have wins over Stanford and Utah, beating the Top-10 Utes at home on Friday night.
LSU is the most interesting team in college football ... Quarterback Joe Burrow has pretty much matched Tua Tagavailoa's numbers this year and that's incredible considering the narrative about LSU football over the last couple of decades. Burrow as 25/34 for 398 yards, six touchdowns and no picks in a 66-38 win at Vanderbilt. We always joke about coaches who seem to say the same thing every year. Tubby pledging to speed it up, as one Kentucky fans will remember. And we kept hearing about LSU doing this or that on offense. In this case, it seems like the spread and tempo are actually changing the Tigers' offense.
But that Vanderbilt defense ... The Commodores were once known for playing pretty good defense. That is definitely not the case this season. The 'Dores are surrendering 46 points per game, allowing 5.69 yards per carry, and have allowed 12 touchdown passes with only two picks this season. That offensive skill talent will be wasted with this "D".
Who's the worst team in the SEC? ... Is it Vanderbilt with that porous defense? Tennessee, with a blowout loss to Florida and home losses to Georgia State and BYU? Or Arkansas, which just lost at home to San Jose State? Fortunately for Mark Stoops and Co., the 'Cats get all three of those teams this year. That's one reason you should resist the temptation to seriously downgrade your preseason win forecast (unless you were unrealistic in the first place).
We learned some things from Mizzou-South Carolina ... The Tigers and Gamecocks are in a similar place to UK in the East's pecking order. UGA is the favorite, most have picked UF to finish second, and then there's Vanderbilt and Tennessee at the bottom. The Tigers, Gamecocks and Wildcats may fight it out for third, fourth and fifth. In a game with some bizarre plays, Mizzou handled USC 34-14. Missouri rushed for 194 yards compared to 16 for South Carolina. Freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski had very limited success and made some mistakes when the Gamecocks had the ball. They're 2.5-point favorites against Kentucky, but the 'Cats have a real chance to win in Columbia if they don't play like they did in the first half against Mississippi State.
Not a great start to the Manny Diaz era ... The Miami Hurricanes started the season with a loss to Florida, followed that up with a loss at North Carolina, and barely survived Central Michigan in a 17-12 home win. Two-time UK commit Jarren Williams has been a bright spot, completing 72.6-percent of his passes for 1,027 yards, seven touchdowns and no picks on the season. But otherwise it's been ugly and the offensive line is a mess.
The Kansas turnaround may be a thing ... The Jayhawks beat Boston College on the road and while they couldn't make it two in a row, KU did give West Virginia all it could handle in Lawrence. This could be a fun program to watch in the years ahead, especially because Les Miles is recruiting at a higher level than Kansas fans are accustomed to seeing in Lawrence.
Nebraska still struggling, but 3-1 ... The Cornhuskers struggled against South Alabama, just barely won on the road against Illinois, and have a road loss to Colorado.
Speaking of Colorado ... The Buffaloes have that home win against Nebraska, they just went on the road at won at Arizona State, but they have a home loss to Air Force. The Pac-12 has been one of the most interesting, tough to figure conferences in college football this season. CU's win over Arizona State in Tempe followed the Sun Devil's victory over Michigan State in East Lansing.
The transitive property does not work ... We've only seen four weeks of college football, but if you're trying to figure out how Team A will fare against Team B based on how Team A and B might have fared against Team C, forget about it. Not much makes sense in this sport.
Thoughts on SMU over TCU ... The SMU Mustangs are off to a 4-0 start after winning on the road against TCU. First the Horned Frogs. I noticed on the ESPN Bottom Line this week that TCU has now been ranked at some point in 15 consecutive seasons. That's pretty unbelievable consistency when you think about where the Frogs are in the prestige pecking order in the Lone Star State and how they haven't been in the Big XII for very long. But this week was about SMU, which is undefeated through four games for the first time in 25 years.
Cal, Road Warriors ... The California Golden Bears under Justin Wilcox are playing some defense. They now have road wins at Washington and at Ole Miss. Winning on the Rebels' home turf this season might not be the biggest deal, but this Cal program is trending in the right direction and doing it the right way.
The surprise of the week ... I honestly didn't see Pitt beating UCF, even at home, but credit the Panthers, who apparently aren't that bad. Pitt played Penn State tough in a 17-10 loss and knocked off the explosive Knights 35-34. Virginia is still the team to beat in that division but Pat Narduzzi's team could still have a nice season.