Where does Kentucky have advantages against Tennessee?
What mismatches will the Wildcats have to overcome?
In this new Cats Illustrated feature, we explore where the numbers favor one side or the other in an attempt to forecast how the game might play out.
IN KENTUCKY'S FAVOR
UK's pass rush ... Who would have thought that pass rush would be a strength for a defense that was supposed to suffer in that area due to Josh Allen's absence? Alas, many prognosticators (including several here at Cats Illustrated) noted that UK's front seven could be quite the strength. It has increasingly been that in 2019, with Calvin Taylor and Boogie Watson in particular thriving at getting after the quarterback. Pro Football Focus considers pass rush a strength for the UK defense. It considers UT's pass protection to be a major weakness, about as much a weakness as UK's passing game, for a point of reference.
UK's scoring defense ... Even more impressive than the aforementioned point about the pass rush is UK's scoring defense overall. The 'Cats are surrendering 21.3 points per game. The matchup there is with a Tennessee offense that averages 24.7 points. But if you look closer, Kentucky has been as good or better defensively against SEC opponents than against Toledo and EMU, or two games that "should" have been stat padders. UT's offense did post 41 points against South Carolina (though you really have to dig into that a little more), but only a little more than 12 points per game in its other four league games.
IN TENNESSEE'S FAVOR
UT's passing defense ... This has more to do with Kentucky being as one-dimensional as it gets at this level of football, but let's not sell the Vols short. The team has struggled mightily at times, less so lately, but on the year opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 11 touchdowns and 13 picks. UK has only allowed four throwing touchdowns this year and that overshadows the Vols in that respect, but those 13 picks indicate it's dangerous to air it out against Rocky Top. The silver lining to having receiver Lynn Bowden at quarterback, besides the run game benefit, is that he hasn't thrown a pick. He has been very good at slinging it out of play. Still, it's tough to imagine UK doing more than hitting on one or two big plays in the air attack according to how the season has played out.
UT scoring defense ... The same that we said of Kentucky's advantage in scoring defense is true of Tennessee's defensive advantage against the Cats' offense. UK's offense did well against Missouri, but scored 7 points against South Carolina, 13 against Mississippi State, and was shut out against Georgia. UT gives up 24 points per game.
