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MATCHUP ANALYSIS: Who has the edge in Kentucky-Louisville?

Cats Illustrated takes a closer look at Saturday's Governor's Cup matchup between Kentucky and Louisville by breaking down what each team has at the positions across the field.

Then we're making judgments about which team has the advantage at each spot.

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Lamar Jackson (USA TODAY Sports)
Lamar Jackson (USA TODAY Sports)
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QUARTERBACK

The greatest moment of Stephen Johnson's football career came one year ago in this very game. Johnson will be remembered for his record as UK's starting quarterback, first and foremost, but not far behind will be the day he outperformed the Heisman Trophy winner on his home field. Having said all that, Lamar Jackson is still Lamar Jackson and it's possible to believe in Stephen Johnson while giving Louisville a substantial edge at the position. If the game is close and Johnson has the ball in his hands, most Kentucky fans will feel like they've got a shot. It wouldn't shock anyone who pays attention if Johnson makes enough timely throws and gutsy runs to give the Cats the straight up win. But Lamar Jackson is Lamar Jackson.

Jackson has completed 59.8-percent of his passes for 3,273 yards, 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions through 11 games this year. The yardage and yards per attempt are almost identical to last year's Heisman campaign, the completion percentage is up by two points (albeit mostly because of laser-like accuracy against Kent State and Murray State), and its his best TD/INT ratio of his career (6-0 last two weeks).

Johnson was clearly less than 100-percent against Georgia and has been toughing it out for much of the year. His accuracy is up significantly (eight points) from last year, his yards per game are in the same ballpark, his ratio has basically duplicated and the overall ball security is down.

Advantage: LOUISVILLE

Benny Snell (UK Athletics)
Benny Snell (UK Athletics)

RUNNING BACK

There are so many impressive ways to shed light on how good Benny Snell has been the last month of the college football season. One of the best is to stack his numbers against Bryce Love's of Stanford, the nation's leading rusher. He's averaging 30 more yards per game and has 10 touchdowns to Love's five over the last month (four games for Snell, three for Love). He has basically produced like a first team All-American and Heisman candidate in recent weeks, and anyone attributing it to the competition has to square his numbers against UGA with what the Bulldogs have afforded other backs this year. Snell may already be the best running back in Kentucky history. If Louisville bottles him up, they win the game. But that will be a tall order. Sihiem King gets far fewer touches than Snell but he has consistently run hard and has a good amount of "highlight yards" to his credit.

Lamar Jackson has been a huge share of Louisville's rushing production with seniors Malik Williams and Reggie Bonnafon as mostly a supporting cast in the backfield that has combined for solid starter-level production (992 yards between them).

Advantage: KENTUCKY

Seth Dawkins (GoCards.com)
Seth Dawkins (GoCards.com)

WIDE RECEIVER

Kentucky's wide receivers do not have season numbers that jump off the page. Actually, they haven't for a really long time. But that doesn't represent how the unit should probably be viewed this year. For a mostly conservative offense with a line that struggled for half the year and a passing game that isn't relied upon too much, the receivers have been a quality group, better than expected and improved in many respects. Garrett Johnson leads the way and it's not even close. He's got 46 catches and 500 yards. That's more than two times as many catches and yards as any other wideout. Blake Bone and Lynn Bowden have made big plays at various times.

Louisville's offense is more wide open than Kentucky's so it's not a surprise that their receivers have posted better numbers. However, some of that has to be credited to UofL's receivers. Jaylen Smith, Dez Fitzpatrick and Seth Dawkins have all posted equal, similar or superior numbers compared to Johnson, UK's leading receiver by far. They've also been touchdown makers. That trio has combined for 17 TD receptions. They will test UK's secondary, which has been spotty in '17, with some recent improvement.

Advantage: LOUISVILLE

Charles Standberry (GoCards.com)
Charles Standberry (GoCards.com)

TIGHT END

This would have very likely been an advantage for Kentucky were it not for C.J. Conrad's season-ending injury suffered in the Cats' game against Georgia. Now the Wildcats' depth has taken a significant blow. Conrad was also one of Kentucky's top big play threats in 2017, and he opened things up for Benny Snell and other offensive players especially in the red zone by drawing attention. Greg Hart and Justin Rigg are capable players, but Conrad is one of the SEC's best.

Louisville's Charles Standberry is no slouch (26 catches, 282 yards, 3 TD) and his receiving numbers are actually comparable to Conrad's. He is not the blocker Conrad is but gives Kentucky's defense someone else to have to worry about when Jackson drops back. The most impressive thing about Standbery in 2017 has been his consistency week to week. He hasn't had any monster games, but he can be counted on for 2-4 receptions and 30-40 yards week in and week out.

Advantage: LOUISVILLE

George Asafo-Adjei, right (UK Athletics)
George Asafo-Adjei, right (UK Athletics)

OFFENSIVE LINE

It's hard to evaluate Kentucky's offensive line for the whole season because it's been almost a night and day story over the past month. The line absolutely failed to live up to most preseason expectations for the first two months of the year, because of poor snaps, center shuffling Nick Haynes' weight loss, mental miscues and a lack of cohesiveness. But John Schlarman's unit has improved as much as any on the team over the course of the season. Drake Jackson solidifying the center position has a lot to do with that but George Asafo-Adjei, Logan Stenberg and others are playing at a higher level, too.

Louisville's offensive line was the butt of jokes last year when it allowed 47 sacks. This year the number has dipped to 27 through 11 games. Louisville rushes for 6.42 yards per carry and some of that is the pressure Jackson puts on the defense everywhere on the field (and his own numbers). The UofL line came into this season with a chip on its shoulder and this week Bobby Petrino said the offensive line's ability to control the line of scrimmage recently has helped save some of Jackson's energy and spare him some hits. There have been games this year when the protection has still struggled (e.g. NC State).

Advantage: EVEN

Henry Famurewa (GoCards.com)
Henry Famurewa (GoCards.com)

DEFENSIVE LINE

Kentucky and Louisville's defensive lines have been similar in at least one major respect. If you're looking at the stat sheet, they haven't been nearly as active as linemen at a lot of other schools. Henry Famurewa has two sacks, and that's the most for any defensive lineman on either team. No Louisville defensive lineman has more than three tackles for loss, unless you count James Hearns (often listed as a linebacker) as a defensive end (in which case Denzil Ware could be as well). Louisville's defense has performed better across the board in recent weeks but some of that was a front loaded schedule easing up recently. Kentucky's second half has been tougher than the first by a hair.

The numbers are equally grim, though partly a result of scheme and emphasis, for the Wildcats. Adrian Middleton has had his moments but has not had the consistent breakout junior season Kentucky probably hoped he would have. Quinton Bohanna has come on strong at the nose, but some of that was Naquez Pringle and Matt Elam's inability to keep the confidence of the coaching staff. UK's defensive line seemed to be playing at a much higher than expected level early in the season when the Wildcats ranked among the nation's top rush defenses, but the regression in recent weeks has been marked.

Advantage: Slight advantage for Louisville

Denzil Ware (UK Athletics)
Denzil Ware (UK Athletics)

LINEBACKER

Louisville, again like Kentucky, relies heavily on its linebackers for those havoc stats (e.g. TFL's and sacks) and that's schematic but it's also a result of superior personnel than they have up front. Jon Greenard, once a Kentucky recruiting target, has matched Hearns 13.5 tackles for loss. However, his production has decreased significantly since the first month of the year. Trevon Young and Stacy Thomas are active players as well, with the latter missing several games.

Kentucky's linebackers have widely been referred to as one of the best units on the team, but their performance has also regressed in recent weeks. Jordan Jones, an All-SEC linebacker from last year, missed significant time this year and hasn't quite returned to his peak level from 2016 for long stretches of time. Josh Allen started the season as one of the nation's top pass rushers and one of the best edge players in the SEC, but his production has tapered off lately. Denzil Ware has had moments when he has stepped up, and has earned two SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors. Courtney Love have shown moderate improvement.

Advantage: EVEN

Trumaine Washington (GoCards.com)
Trumaine Washington (GoCards.com)

DEFENSIVE BACK

Again, a similarity. Both secondaries have improved over the last two weeks. Louisville's secondary absolutely shut down the Syracuse passing attack (0 touchdowns, 4 INTs, 138 yards, 38% completion) and the week before Virginia could not pass well enough to keep pace with UofL's offense. But this secondary has been vulnerable at times, as when they surrendered 461 yards and 5 TDs to Wake Forest. However, that was really the only "stinker" the Cardinal secondary has turned in since the first month of the season when they were less than stellar against Purdue, North Carolina and Clemson.

Kentucky's secondary has taken plenty of criticism in 2017 because of the group's experience which has been complemented by supposedly high-level recruiting. There are signs things are stabilizing. Kentucky picked off Vanderbilt's Kyle Shurmur four times and while Georgia didn't need to pass the ball much, Derrick Baity getting beat for a touchdown pass was one of the only real negatives for Kentucky in pass coverage. Darius West has improved his play in recent weeks. Kentucky's secondary is an important part of the Wildcats' run defense and Mike Edwards will be one of the best players on the field Saturday.

Advantage: EVEN

Austin MacGinnis (UK Athletics)
Austin MacGinnis (UK Athletics)

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kentucky's special teams unit had a very uncharacteristically poor performance against the Bulldogs, showing weakness in punt and kickoff coverage, making the blunder on the roughing the kicker penalty and failing to down a punt near the goal line. But the simple fact that we can talk about one poor special teams performance says something about how much Dean Hood has improved Kentucky's unit there. Austin MacGinnis is the best kicker in Kentucky history and punter Matt Panton has been a major upgrade at punter. Charles Walker is as efficient as any punt return man in the country and Lynn Bowden will draw attention if he's back to receive. Kentucky still ranks very well in special teams efficiency metrics and that unit is a huge reason they're 7-4 instead of something like 5-6.

Those S&P+ special teams numbers show Louisville as roughly middle of the pack nationally, and not significantly worse than Kentucky. The major reason for their respectable if unspectacular ranking is kicker Blanton Creque, who has been a reliable 12/14 on the season. Louisville's punting has been just fine as well. However, there is a soft underbelly here for the Wildcats to exploit. Louisville ranks near the bottom of the national charts in kickoff success rate, punt return success rate and kick return success rate.

Advantage: KENTUCKY

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