In this edition of the CatsIllustrated.com recruiting mailbag publisher Justin Rowland fields questions from subscribers and Twitter users.
Some of the questions in the mailbag have been asked frequently and it's timely to address them succinctly while others may have come up in passing recently.
Question: There's been a lot of talk about silent commitments recently. What are we to make of that? (frequently asked, paraphrased)
Justin Rowland: I was confident that Jarren Williams was a silent commitment for some time before announcing his decision on Monday, but I wouldn't read too much into some of the more recent chatter about silent commitments.
First, in my experience most of the time silent commitment talk is overblown. There are instances when a player really has told a coaching staff that he's definitely going to be committing. In fact, it's pretty common for players and coaches to reach an understanding of what's going to happen before an announcement, with the player then deciding how he wants to go about making the announcement. When that agreement is reached right before an announcement I don't think that's quite the same thing as a "silent commitment" as it exists in the popular imagination.
In my experience, when most fans talk about silent commitments they're talking about guys who have told the coaches they're committed and then wait a length of time, sometimes days, weeks or even months, before they announce their choice. That, in my view, is either rare or it doesn't mean much.
RELATED: Tuesday P.M. update on Ethan Tucky
There's some nuance here. A lot of times a player might lead a coach to believe he's going to be committing, but there are other conversations going on with other parties at other schools, and the coach who believes he's getting a commitment isn't always privy to the nature of those conversations. That's a subtle tactic by the player to put the coach off and buy some time for a little while, which is often understandable because of the pressures that are foisted upon recruits.
There are sometimes misunderstandings because many recruits are afraid to say no (or just don't know how, or lack the guidance) but they don't really want to say yes, or they're not ready to say yes in strong enough terms to make it a public commitment.
I do think Kentucky's in really good shape with players like Rivals100 ATH Blue Smith and Lakota West linebacker Xavier Peters, but I don't think either situation would amount to a silent commitment, at least by the definition I'd use for that. Those players might have strongly insinuated that they're very interested in Kentucky and certain parties might have been led to believe that things will end favorably for UK, but that doesn't amount to a silent commitment. Favorable winds are a good thing, but they're not silent commitments.
In the relatively rare instances when a silent commitment is really out there, one has to ask: What's the hold up? Why doesn't the player really want to go public? Only occasionally is there a good answer that would put everyone's mind at ease.
So if you're wondering about silent verbals and what might be out there, my advice is to just sit tight, consume sound recruiting writing and reporting, make reasonable judgments but only when there are good facts to back them up.
Where can this class ultimately rank nationally? (frequently asked)
Rowland: This is the one question I get every year and basically in the exact form it's presented here. I hear the question on a weekly basis. It's almost pointless to speculate on something like this nine months and 20 commitments away from the finished product UK will present to fans on National Signing Day 2018, but we're going to speculate anyways. Because this is CatsIllustrated.com, and if you're reading this then you're in the top one-half of one-percent of Kentucky fans who know football recruiting.
Since we're asking the question in May, let's lay out some fundamental truths.
1) This is going to be a good-sized class. Without giving an exact number (we had been saying 28), it'll be bigger than 25. That's important because Rivals.com counts the top 20 commitments in its ranking formula. The more commitments Kentucky takes, the more opportunities to raise the point total. To max out your ranking in the Rivals formula you need three things:
A) Highly-ranked guys who get bonus points at the top (e.g. Marquan McCall and Blue Smith, who not only get points for being 5.9 and 6.0 RR to begin with, but additional points for strong rankings inside the Rivals100), B) Quality depth (e.g. not just a class that's front loaded with star power but tapers off quickly, but deep in guys with Rivals Ratings that are 5.7 and up, as the 2014 class was, especially), C) At least enough three-star commitments to avoid having your two-stars (5.4 RR and down) actually counting towards your total.
2) The class should be strong at the top. Assuming Kentucky can hold onto McCall and Jarren Williams gets a rating bump (it's widely believed that he will, but we'll see probably in early June), then Kentucky would already have two four-star commitments including one in the Rivals100. That helps the class rank already, which explains UK's current position in the top 25 even though they have fewer commitments than several schools ranked ahead of them, but it will also help the class rank by building momentum that makes it more likely UK will land other top prospects. Momentum is everything in recruiting.
3) There's a fair amount of top talent on the board still to be had. Blue Smith is the first name that comes to mind because he's a Rivals100 player and would net UK a lot of points. If UK were to land him, it could have a domino effect.
4) UK can't rely on a strong in-state core this year. Usually, when Kentucky lands several four-stars in a class there will probably be one or more from Kentucky. They probably won't benefit from that this year because it's a pretty down year for the state in talent, at least compared to years like 2016 and 2019.
5) UK is likely to take a scholarship kicker. That's not major, but it means at least one spot is likely to be occupied by someone rated less than three-stars. This becomes moot if UK lands at least 20 three-star players.
There are other considerations. If UK lands Xavier Peters, would the linebacker get bumped up to four-stars? Does Kentucky have a really great shot with Rivals250 defensive end Tyler Baylor of Good Counsel? Can Kentucky land any four-star prospects from Florida or Georgia? Will any four-star JUCO prospects emerge and commit to Kentucky later?
My opinion: It's very early but given the expected size of the class and its early strength, in spite of the relatively modest commitment total now, this class stands a good chance to rank as Stoops' second best according to the rankings. It's going to be difficult to outpace the 2014 class, when UK landed ten four-star commitments in a big haul, but I think it's probably on track to finish right behind that one in the Stoops' era.
Will Kentucky take a second quarterback in the 2018 class? (frequently asked)
Rowland: No. I would be shocked if they do. It's my understanding that it's Williams and no one else.
What positions are priorities from here on out? (frequently asked)
Rowland: In my estimation the most important positions are running back, nose guard, middle linebacker, safety and kicker. That's not to say they won't target other positions as they're certainly not done on the offensive line, at outside linebacker or elsewhere.
I'd expect Kentucky to take at least one running back and possibly two, and given the modest depth there now they need to get a good one. Because Naquez Pringle and Matt Elam are leaving they need to find a couple of quality big interior defensive linemen, and McCall may be one of them but they'd probably need another, too. They loaded up at corner last year and probably need to prioritize safeties now. And kicker is obvious with Austin MacGinnis leaving.
Who are the biggest names to watch in the near future if you're looking for possible Yahtzees? (frequently asked)
I would watch out for athlete Blue Smith, linebacker Xavier Peters, cornerback Taj Ward and defensive lineman Austin Smith. We first reported on transferring Boston College linebacker Ethan Tucky, who officially visited UK on Sunday and Monday, and we have posted updates on him since then, so those at the House of Blue know a bit about his situation and we'll have an update on that soon as well.
