Luckett: What advanced statistics tell us about UK football going into 2017
As all of you reading this know, 2017 was the season the Kentucky program has been waiting on. Mark Stoops was brought to Lexington to bring winning football back to the Commonwealth.
After going over a lot of speed bumps, Stoops and his staff did just that by posting a .500 record in the SEC and heading to the Sunshine State for postseason play for the first time in nearly two decades. So before we embark on another fall of “Football time in the Bluegrass,” let’s take one last look at all the Big Blue accomplished in 2017.
You remember the wins and you remember the losses that got away. It was a year that was filled with a roller coaster of emotions from the brutal second half performance against Southern Miss to the amazing 4th quarter against Louisville in the finale. And you know how all of these games broke down and what the coaches/players had to say about the performances.
What I want to do here is give you a look from another perspective.
Advanced stats have taken over the baseball world and are starting to take a big impact in hoops as well. Ken Pomeroy’s numbers are no longer restricted to the domain of the more serious hoops wonks and you’re starting to see these types of views in very commercial settings such as ESPN with their FPI win percentages.
Corner threes and not mid-range jumpers? You can contribute that to sports analytics. However, on the gridiron, these have not really taken off yet. The folks over at Football Outsiders have been producing statistical analysis since 2003 and are now becoming extremely popular. Teams at the NFL and college level are now using these statistical findings to help them gain an edge. And while more focused on the NFL, there are still plenty to take from their college football data. Here I will point out some things the Wildcats did extremely well and not so well last season. And with personnel returning in certain areas, we’ll tell you where things are looking bright for the 2017 season.
Rushing Attack
Once Benny Snell was inserted to the lineup as the thunder to Boom Williams’ lightning, this rushing offense became one of the best in the country. Thanks to schematic changes made by play-caller Eddie Gran and the rest of the staff, UK was damn near dominant as the S&P+ ratings system had them as the 11th best ground attack in the country. This was good for only fourth in the SEC but the fact that UK made this big of a jump in this category was quite the accomplishment. The backs and the insertion of Stephen Johnson II as the starter has been getting most of the credit, but people should be looking towards the offensive line.
After the rushing for only 190 in their first two contests combined and losing starting QB Drew Barker for the season, Gran and offensive line coach John Schlarman made some minor tweaks. The Cats went all out on the platoon system as Bunchy Stallings would immediately become the permanent starter at right guard and blue-chip true frosh Landon Young was thrown into the fire at left tackle. The rushing game then exploded as UK ran for at least 200 yards against everyone to close regular season except Alabama and Georgia. A pivotal part of this was the big guys up front as Football Outsiders had this group ranked in the top 40 in every run blocking measure. UK was most effective in power success rate where they finished sixth in the country. This means UK was very successful on third or fourth downs where they faced a short distance. UK got first downs in these situations 80% of the time. UK was also in the top 10 in Adjusted Line Yards. This measures which grades both the runner and the line on each rushing attempt. The UK offense has a ground and pound element for the first time since Artose Pinner was on campus.
Splash Plays
Kentucky had their limitations in the passing game with the emergence of Johnson, but it did not slow them down from hitting their fair share of home runs. Both on the ground and through the air, the Wildcats had the ability to strike for six whenever they had possession of the football. Overall in the IsoPPP metric (measures points per play on plays that were deemed a success) UK managed to finish 12th in the country with a 1.42 average while the national average was just 1.27. Can you say Boom Williams and Jeff Badet?
The two juniors from last season provided big play chances whenever they touched the ball as Williams averaged nearly seven yards per carry while Badet put up just under 21 yards per reception. Whether it was Williams gashing the defense up the middle or Badet streaking free on a deep post, the duo provided this attack with a great amount of punch in the big play department. Now that the two are gone there is a worry how UK will find the big play burst to match their efficiency. Juice Johnson should emerge as the new big play threat at receiver while, in limited playing time, Sihiem King has proven to have the ability to make a big play on the ground. There will be opportunities for freshmen to make an impact here.
Stopping the Run
As good as UK was at running on teams last season, their defense was that bad at stopping teams from just grounding it out. Overall, UK was 93rd against the rush but ranked 119tth or worse in four different categories. In opportunity rate (meaning holding your opponent to less than five yards a carry) D.J. Eliot’s defense finished 127 out of 128 FBS squads as opponents gained at least five yards 48.5% of the time. Comparing this to UK’s outstanding rushing offense, they only accomplished this feat 42.6% of the time. That is just a glaring weakness that must be fixed. Meanwhile, stuff rate (amount of times you stop the play at or behind the line of scrimmage) finished 126th. UK was only able to accomplish this 12.8% of the time while the national average was 18.9%.
These are some glaring weaknesses that new coordinator Matt House is going to have to get ironed out pretty quickly. Up front UK returns a bunch but they have to find some way to be more stout against the run. They did a good job of limiting huge running plays, but were consistently gashed for efficient runs over the course of the season. The pass defense is good enough to be successful. If Kentucky can solve these ground issues they could be onto something on defense in 2017.
You probably didn’t need me to point out these numbers to tell you what UK was good and not good at in 2017. However, this is proven data that shows Kentucky finally developed an identity on offense that they’ll use going forward. They’re currently a run first team that can take it to the house at any point. Meanwhile, the defense is severely held back by their front. The rushing defense has been horrible ever since Stoops has arrived and that must change for Kentucky to start truly competing.
Publisher's note: Adam Luckett is a guest columnist at Cats Illustrated. He's the founder of Big OOT Sports and covers Sun Belt football for Underdog Dynasty. You can follow him on Twitter @AdamLuckettBOS.