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Published Sep 25, 2020
Keys to the Game
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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A football game can be shaped by any number of factors and variables that are impossible to forecast beforehand, but we can make an educated guess as to what might impact how the game plays out.

Here are some Cats Illustrated keys to the game between Kentucky and Auburn.

Don't settle for field goals

Kentucky was not a very good red zone offense last season if you look at the overall scoring rate. But when you factor the touchdown percentage it became something the team could generally live with (not always).

Because a theme from the coaches during camp has been the need for the offense to be better at finishing drives in the red zone this seems like a no-brainer.

At most spots on the field it doesn't seem like Kentucky is going to be working at a talent deficit and that's a big step forward for the program. But because the passing game is an unknown being one-dimensional on a short field might become dicey.

This is going to be a key for any team any game but it's hard to imagine Kentucky winning as a touchdown underdog if they have to settle for field goals when they get in scoring range.

O-Line handles business

If Kentucky's offensive line is as good as advertised — and given its track record and how much returns the expectations seem reasonable — this is an opportunity to make a statement.

Remember when Kentucky won in the Swamp two years ago? The offensive line paved the way for 300 yards rushing. Bunchy Stallings got out in front of plays and blew open holes for Kentucky's backs. The group was spectacular in that game.

Auburn is breaking in some new players on the defensive line but its linebacker unit seems solid and its athleticism could be quite a test for Kentucky's line when it gets to the next level.

Any Kentucky upset bid hinges on Kentucky's offensive line being one of the best units on the field if not the best. It might already be on paper but whether it plays out that way will have a big hand in determining the outcome.

Make Nix uncomfortable

Nix is not immobile. He rushed for more than 300 yards and had seven touchdowns on the ground a year ago.

But almost no quarterback is better over a larger sample size when he's throwing against pressure than when he's sitting back in a clean pocket.

Auburn has had a lot of good offensive lines over the years but this is one of their more unproven units in some time. Kentucky returning so much on the front seven gives the 'Cats an opportunity to get after the Tigers' sophomore quarterback.

According to PFF, last year Nix completed 62.7-percent of his passes when he faced no pressure. That number plummeted to 32.4-percent against pressure. He didn't throw any picks against pressure, and he did hit on some big plays (24 of 74 for 434 yards), but there were many incompletions.

Set Wilson up to succeed

Kentucky can't just throw Wilson into the game against a fast, aggressive Kevin Steele defense and expect him to start to laser darts into tight coverage windows. Besides, Kentucky's receivers still have to prove they can win enough 50/50 balls to make the passing game a legitimate threat against a good team.

Auburn has to know this is going to happen, but expect Kentucky to try and build Wilson's confidence on screens, slants, and with a run game that sets up play-action.

Wilson is eventually going to have to make some big throws down the field.

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