Keys to the Game

One of the reasons Vanderbilt is enjoying more success this year is the Commodores are playing with an identity. This season Clark Lea has a team that can move the chains, control the clock, and play more the way a lot of Mark Stoops teams have, this year and in the past.

Vanderbilt has been good with a lead this year. When Vandy has the lead Diego Pavia is 27/37 for 357 yards, four touchdowns and no picks. That's extremely efficient and very good. At the same time, the Commodores have picked off three passes when leading.

If you take the pressure off the Commodores (i.e. spot them a lead) and let them play their brand of keep away, the chances of an upset dramatically increase.

It almost goes without saying that not falling behind is a key to the game. The good news i Kentucky is probably better equipped to play from behind than Vanderbilt is, if it were to happen.

Make homefield count this time

It's a night game and while Kentucky/Vanderbilt has not been a headliner, a lot of eyes will be on this one because the teams have been giant killers this year.

Perhaps the thing that stands out the most about Vanderbilt this year is the home and away splits. The Commodores are 3-0 at home and 2-0 on the road. Considering there are wins against Alabama and Virginia Tech at home, and a loss to Georgia State on the road, that seems significant.

One of the most important things that can happen for Kentucky on Saturday night is to turn out a huge crowd that makes for an imposing atmosphere for the 'Dores. While this is a VU team that has a lot of belief, especially after last week, if 60,000 hostile fans are bearing down with noise and creating momentum, Vandy's task gets a lot tougher.

Crowd noise can impact penalties, and the Dores have played cleaner football at home (6.0 penalties/gm) than on the road (8.5 penalties/gm).

There's an interesting dynamic here, however. Kentucky has played Vanderbilt better in Nashville recently than it has in Lexington. Here are the recent scores of games based on venue:

UK has won its last four trips to Nashville by scores on 45-28, 34-17, 38-14, and 44-21. Those are dominant performances on the road. The last time this game was in Lexington the Commodores won 24-21. They almost beat UK in Lexington the three times before that (38-35 UK, 14-7 UK, 20-13 UK).

Kentucky's home SEC woes over the past couple of years have been well documented. Reasserting homefield dominance will be key.

Don't turn it over

Vanderbilt has a +5 turnover margin on the season. That's a big reason the Dores are 3-2. Maybe not surprisingly Vanderbilt is +5 in turnover margin in its three wins and even in its two losses. Any Vanderbilt upset bid probably starts with winning the turnover battle.

But resist the temptation to think of turnovers as just fluky in this game. When the opposing quarterback, Diego Pavia, hasn't turned it over this season, that means it's going to be hard to turn the Dores over.

Kentucky is +2 in turnovers on the season. For Kentucky the turnover splits in wins and losses are even more pronounced. UK is +4 in turnover margin in its three wins but -2 in its two losses. And the South Carolina game, the lone surprising negative result of the season, was certainly turnover-fueled.