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Published Sep 26, 2024
Keys to the Game
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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@RowlandRIVALS

Kentucky is a decided underdog in this weekend's game against Ole Miss in Oxford, Miss.

But that's why they play the games.

Here are some keys to the game for Kentucky to have a chance at a big upset.

Convert on Third Down

The Ole Miss defense ranks No. 5 nationally in allowing opponents to convert only 21.88% of third down opportunities. Not one of Ole Miss' first four opponents was able to convert even 30% of its third down tries against the Rebels. Furman was 3/17, MTSU was 4/14, Wake Forest was 4/17, and Georgia Southern just 3/16.

Kentucky was very good on third down against Georgia and that was key to staying in the game. Keep that great offense off the field, chew up clock, try to wear the other defense down a little bit.

The best way to be good on third down is for you to create manageable third down situations which means efficiency on first and second down. That doesn't mean you can't take any shots on first down but staying cognizant of the sticks will be important for Bush Hamdan and Brock Vandagriff.

Kentucky has been pretty good on third down this season, ranking No. 36 nationally at 45.83% and against a tougher slate of opponents. What being good on third down would do is limit your defense's exposure to Jaxson Dart and maybe keep him a little off balance.

Slow the Rebels on First Down

Here's the problem. Ole Miss forces you to defend the entire field. Their ability to attack everywhere and beat you with both the QB run, RB run, or pass is devastating. The Rebels are known for tempo and hitting huge plays, but a closer look reveals that they do a killing on first down. Consistently.

Ole Miss averages more than 5.7 yards per carry on first down and Dart is 61/76 for 1,028 yards, seven touchdowns and one pick on first down. Half of all first down passing attempts result in another first down and about 1/5 first down passing plays results in a huge gain (25+ yards).

Kentucky is one of the top defensive teams in the nation and the Wildcats have only allowed 1.92 yards per carry on first down. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 66.7% on first down but only for 273 yards and one touchdown. Something's got to give.

The Wildcats tend to want to play stout up front and then keep everything in front of them on the back end. Against Ole Miss, however, you're facing an opponent that is good enough to go slowly up the field as well.

Tackling

If you have a poor tackling game against an SEC opponent chances are you're not going to win. Poor tackling turns small gains into explosives and gets exploited pretty quickly in this league.

Against Ole Miss, you have to make every stop at the line of scrimmage that you can. That goes for the perimeter, where corners and safeties will have to fight through good blockers, but also those inside runs that can quickly go from 2-yard gains to 40 yard touchdowns if you get past that first level.

Pass Play Design

We could say pass protection here, but the reality is we haven't seen enough from Kentucky's offensive line and we've seen a lot from Ole Miss' defensive line that suggests the Wildcats may have some difficulty blocking them in obvious passing situations.

That inability to protect Vandagriff for long enough to make longer throws when the defense knows it's coming has been disastrous for Kentucky's offense against South Carolina and Georgia, both its losses and both of its SEC games.

Even if Kentucky is able to run the ball, control the clock, and limit the number of possessions in the game, they have to hold up long enough in protection to give those receivers a chance to make the difference in the game. Much of that will fall on Hamdan's ability to scheme up enough protection in those situations when disguised pressure or all-out blitzes could be coming hard.

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