Mississippi State will enter Tuesday night's game against Kentucky with a lot of momentum and probably quite a bit of confidence.
The Bulldogs have won five of six, have looked dominant at times, and have proved they can win on the road.
Here are some of the keys to Kentucky protecting its home court against MSU.
Don't let State go wild on the offensive glass ... This won't be the first time you read that Mississippi State has rebounded 37.4-percent of its own misses on this website. That's third in the country and something that every coach preparing for the Bulldogs will worry about. Kentucky has sometimes held its own on the defensive glass, sometimes not. MSU is the best offensive rebounding team Kentucky will see all season by the numbers. So for the offensive rebounding issue alone, it almost goes without saying that Nick Richards being available for a lot of minutes is another key. Abdul Ado leads MSU in offensive boards and this appears to be an incredible gift for him as he is the rare player with more offensive than defensive rebounds on the season. But MSU has about three players who are capable of following shots with second chance points.
Hagans has to limit the turnovers ... Ashton Hagans doesn't have to have one of his best games of the season for Kentucky to beat Mississippi State, but if he has a third straight turnover and foul-plagued game then it's almost tough to see the 'Cats surviving that against a confident, physical, and dangerous opponent. Points are good, the assists this year have been great. Stay out of foul trouble and don't give it away five or six times. That's more important. There's good news for Kentucky here. Mississippi State is not a team that turns opponents over a lot (12.1 TO forced/gm). Nor is Kentucky.
Nick Richards must have a big game ... No, he can't just stay out of foul trouble. That's part of it. For Kentucky to beat Mississippi State, Richards probably has to play well. The Bulldogs block five shots per game and have some formidable size that will test most front courts. Ordinarily the Wildcats' big men are head and shoulders above most of their SEC counterparts, but not this year, certainly not aside from Richards. In the first half against Auburn, amazingly, Kentucky had only two points in the paint. That's almost unheard of over 20 minutes for a Kentucky basketball team. Right now Kentucky just cannot count on much from Nate Sestina or Keion Brooks and even though E.J. Montgomery sometimes provides a little more the range of what he's really proven to be capable of is pretty small. Richards has to rise to the challenge after one of his worst games of the year.
UK must find a way to get to the line ... Kentucky has not been a good or a consistently average three-point shooting team to date in the 2019-20 season. What has sometimes allowed Kentucky to survive three-point woes or the absence of triples is an ability to get to the free throw line and an excellent conversion rate from the stripe. UK was 20/24 from the line against Auburn which would be great most nights, but that put the 'Cats at a 13-point free throw scoring deficit. MSU won't shoot 44 free throws, but the concern here is the Bulldogs don't put opponents at the line very much. Getting to the line for UK usually comes down to those three top guards playing aggressive and making good decisions.
