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Published Oct 24, 2019
Keys to a Kentucky win against Missouri
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Kentucky is now a 10.5-point underdog according to most betting websites and that means some things will have to go right for the team to even its record at 4-4 at the end of the Missouri game on Saturday.

Here are some keys to the game based on the matchup and what we know about the Wildcats and Tigers.

The crowd needs to show up ... Let's be clear. Vanderbilt probably didn't beat Missouri because of a huge home field advantage. But we do know that the Tigers are 5-0 at Faurot Field in Columbia and 0-2 away from home. There really aren't a lot of common themes in Missouri's two losses if you look at the box scores or if you watched the games. Wyoming shocked Missouri with a 27-point second quarter that was full of big plays, including a 30-yard fumble return for a touchdown and touchdown runs of 61 and 75 yards. Vanderbilt executed a conservative game plan and won a different kind of game. The theme may simply be that Missouri hasn't learned to win on the road yet. That's a good thing for Kentucky, which returns to Kroger Field, and it would be an even better thing if there's a vocal crowd to welcome and support them.

Don't let Albert Okweugbunam beat you ... We've spelled out how diversified the balanced the Missouri passing attack is and we'll dig into that more closer to game time. It's true that Kelly Bryant spreads the ball around to a large number of targets as well as any quarterback in the conference. That makes it hard to hone in on one or two players, because there remain several capable threats that would benefit from less attention. But what is clear is that tight end Albert Okweugbunam is a touchdown machine and a matchup nightmare. He paces all Mizzou pass-catchers with six touchdowns this season. He was tied for the team lead in touchdown receptions last season (6) and had a whopping 10 touchdown receptions two years ago. In all, he has scored 26 receiving touchdowns in 29 games played over the previous three years. If you're going to focus on limiting one player's impact, he's the guy. The problem is he's just difficult to defend as an athletic tight end who thrives on those mismatches and thrives on throws to the end zone. Whether it's zone coverage or man, whether it's a safety, corner, or linebacker matched up with Okweugbunam, the defense can't lose him and he must be a focal point.

Win the rushing battle ... Of all the coaches in college football, Mark Stoops may have the strongest conviction when it comes to the importance of winning the ground game "by even one yard", as he likes to say (paraphrased). He's correct and that's even more true this weekend. Six times this year Missouri has rushed for more yardage than its opponent. They have won all but one. Wyoming rushed for 297 yards to Missouri's 114 in its win against the Tigers. More recently, Vanderbilt only rushed for three fewer yards than Missouri, and they defeated the Tigers in a close game. Given the state of Kentucky's passing attack, the Wildcats probably need to win the ground game by a substantial margin. Fortunately, the UK rushing attack has been trending in the right direction and Barry Odom's team had a little more trouble than usual finding holes against the 'Dores.

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