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Published Nov 19, 2022
Kentucky-Gonzaga Preview
Joseph Jones
Special Contributor

On Sunday at 7:30 PM (EST) on ESPN, one of the most anticipated college basketball games of the early season will be played in Spokane, as Kentucky faces off with Gonzaga in a matchup that many college basketball fans have eagerly awaited since the announcement that these two premier programs would face off for several seasons to come.

A brief recap of events so far will tell that the Cats rebounded with a 43-point win against an overmatched South Carolina State squad on Thursday. One night prior to that, Gonzaga suffered a 19-point blowout at the hands of what appears to be a potent Texas team in the early part of the season. Despite those painful bumps in the road for both programs early in this season, fans from across the country will tune in to watch two monumental programs in college basketball go head-to-head in what figures to be an exciting game headlined by arguably the two best players at this level.

Scouting Gonzaga

Gonzaga is a talented offensive team that has had some sizeable issues early on. Against Michigan State and Texas, the Zags had 18 and 20 turnovers respectively. To be frank, that is the kind of issue that is going to lose a lot of games whenever a team is playing against a quality opponent. Michigan State was unable to take advantage of this in a game that they controlled from the halfway point of the 1st half up until they lost the lead in the final 3:15 of the game. At that point, Drew Timme made clutch plays and the Zags (along with the help of an aircraft carrier existing on an ocean) played disciplined defense and escaped with a 1-point win against the Spartans. Texas, on the other hand, took complete advantage of this and dismantled a Zags team that could not get out of its own way. Gonzaga currently ranks 324th in the nation in the turnover column and sits at an abysmal 40 assists vs 52 turnovers on the season so far. This team seemingly lacks the playmakers that the Zags have had in previous years, but still has players that can make big shots and are not afraid to hoist shots up regularly.

Scouting Kentucky

Kentucky fans seemingly already have an outstanding pulse on this team. The Cats are very talented and appear to be deep enough to create a lot of issues for a lot of teams but having the right lineups in the game at times has seemingly been something that has alluded John Calipari regularly so far this season. The Cats are a team that has now shown a willingness to play with tempo, running an average of 79 possessions per game, which ranks 27th in the nation at this point. It is something that the Cats are also seemingly very comfortable with, as they are moving the ball extremely effectively (at 21 assists per game, a category in which they rank 13th in the nation) and doing so in a way that has not produced a bunch of turnovers in the process in comparison. UK currently ranks in the top 40 in assist-to-turnover ratio. Where these Cats struggle is at the free throw line, where they shoot a paltry 66.7% from the charity stripe. If Kentucky is in a close game late, that stat alone could prove to be problematic in closing out with a victory.

Crunching Numbers

Points Per Game... Kentucky: 88.8, Gonzaga: 80.7

Points Allowed Per Game: Kentucky: 66.0, Gonzaga: 73.0

Field Goal Percentage: Kentucky: 49.0%, Gonzaga: 52.3%

3PT Percentage: Kentucky: 42.4%, Gonzaga: 36.0%

FG% Allowed: Kentucky: 35.2%, Gonzaga: 42.9%

3PT% Allowed: Kentucky: 28.6%, Gonzaga: 30.4%

Assists Per Possession Percentage: Kentucky: 26.6%, Gonzaga: 17.2%

Turnovers Per Offensive Play Percentage: Kentucky: 14.8%, Gonzaga: 20.3%

Offensive Rebound Percentage: Kentucky: 33.1%, Gonzaga: 28.2%

Blocks Per Game: Kentucky: 8.3, Gonzaga: 4.0

Steals Per Game: Kentucky: 10, Gonzaga: 9.7

Possessions Per Game: Kentucky: 79.0, Gonzaga: 77.6

Overall Analysis

Both teams want to run. Kentucky ranks 27th in the nation at possessions per game, and Gonzaga ranks 45th in the same category. The biggest difference in the early juncture is that Kentucky has done it relatively mistake-free with respect to turnovers, and the Cats have been significantly better at moving the ball around the court, especially when the ball is being pushed at a frenetic pace. It is possible that Gonzaga is more comfortable than Kentucky in a half-court, more deliberate style of basketball, and the Zags may very well slightly deviate from the norm and opt for that in this game. Kentucky is at its best when multiple shooters are on the floor and Sahvir Wheeler can play quickly and facilitate the offense in the open floor, as opposed to initiating the offense from the top of the key in the half-court. That type of game is where Wheeler has the potential to be one of the most impactful players in the nation, and one might imagine that Mark Few recognizes that.Ultimately, this game could come down to the battle between what may very well be the two best players in the nation. Oscar Tshiebwe has once again been sensational and has started his campaign of becoming a repeat national player of the year, tallying up 28 points, 25 rebounds, and 4 blocks in 48 total minutes of action so far this season. He has also displayed some improved skills in the open floor and has apparently further developed his already smooth mid-range game.

Drew Timme has also been phenomenal this season, averaging 20.7 points and 8 rebounds per game, and displaying a very complete offensive arsenal from 18 feet and in. These two will be battling all game long on Sunday, and it is certainly possible that the player that finds the most success on the court that day will be the winner of this game, being that both teams rely heavily on these players. One thing is for certain though, the college basketball world will have their eyes glued to their televisions to watch these two behemoths and these monumental programs battle it out for a big resume boost and bragging rights, and both programs would love to start the new series off with a big win.

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