Kentucky takes on Florida in Rupp Arena early Saturday evening and Cats Illustrated writers are forecasting how the action might play out.
Here are takes on the matchup and predictions on the outcome from the familiar trio of Jeff Drummond, Travis Graf, and David Sisk.
Drummond: Perhaps the best thing to happen for Kentucky going into this matchup with Florida was the Gators posting an impressive 13-point win over No. 2 Tennessee on Wednesday night in Gainesville. Any chance of the Wildcats overlooking Florida probably vanished with that result. John Calipari's squad should have their full focus on this game, which looms as a really important one in terms of jockeying for SEC Tournament seeding position this month. The Gators will bring a highly regarded defense (No. 8 nationally, per KenPom) to Lexington and a talented big man in the form of veteran 7-footer Colin Castelton. He's got the skill to take advantage of some of the things UK has been hurt by in pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop scenarios. Kentucky has to be dialed in on defense and prepared to win what might be a low-scoring affair. Give me Kentucky 68, Florida 60
Graf: This is going to be a game where Oscar Tshiebwe is going to have to come in grounded in multiple definitions of the word. He presses a lot in big time matchups and tries to do too much, and that can’t happen against 7-foot Colin Castleton. Castleton is a lengthy shot blocker on defense, the player archetype that Oscar has struggled with historically. Offensively, he’s very skilled and will utilize a lot of pump fakes to maneuver the defender. Oscar has to stay on his feet and not get in foul trouble early on. I like Kentucky’s guards in this matchup and one of Antonio Reeves or CJ Fredrick will have to deliver from the perimeter. It’s a low scoring, defensive game with Kentucky making just enough plays to come out on top, 67 to 63.
Sisk: At one time a home matchup against Florida looked like one you could chalk up in the win column. That is no longer the case. They have won six of eight including wins they can write home about against Tennessee, Mississippi State on the road, and Missouri. The big reason is their defense travels. They are 36th nationally in scoring defense, 15th in defensive efficiency which is points per possession, and 10th in opponents shooting percentage. They also have a stud big man in Colin Castleton. There is definitely a path for a Gators win. Their problem is putting the ball in the basket. They rank in the bottom half of the country in shooting and scoring. Look for a game of long possessions with minimum scoring opportunities on both ends. Even if Kentucky pulls away and creates some breathing room, it’s going to be because of the defensive end. Kentucky 65 Florida 57