Kentucky Basketball Season Predictions: Rowland
Over the next few days four Cats Illustrated writers and contributors will be unveiling some season predictions for Kentucky basketball.
Each contributor will answer several questions, each of which is being put to everyone.
First up is publisher Justin Rowland.
What are your thoughts on Kentucky being ranked No. 2 in the first AP poll?
My first reaction was that it seemed a bit high, but once you look at the other teams in the poll based on what little we know about college basketball, who deserves to be ranked ahead of Kentucky?
The pollsters didn't know that Michigan State's Joshua Langford would be ruled out until at least January, but now there is a real case for Kentucky at No. 1 preseason. However, I just don't think UK is head and shoulders above the other teams in the top ten, at least on paper. There are a lot of good teams, as I see it, but no guaranteed great team.
What's your prediction for Kentucky's regular season and SEC records?
The Wildcats play 31 regular season games, and I'll predict they finish 25-6 with a 14-4 record in the SEC. That would allow for a couple of non-conference losses against a pretty challenging schedule before the conference slate begins. UK plays eight teams ranked in the AP preseason Top-25. I suspect they win more than their fair share of those but stub their toe a couple of times against unranked teams on the road.
How far will Kentucky make it in the NCAA tournament?
Two of the last three years Kentucky's season has ended in the Elite Eight. My prediction is the Wildcats will advance there and see their run end once again. It's entirely possible this team reaches the Final Four and I could envision a scenario in which they win the championship given the lack of great teams, but I have some questions about the front court that prevent me from going beyond the Regional Final pick.
What does "success" look like this season for Kentucky?
Sometimes success is tough to gauge. For example, last year if you were being reasonable your expectations should have changed after the season-opener against Duke. Perhaps last year's Elite Eight wouldn't have looked successful to folks who hadn't adjusted those expectations, but it was for me. The Final Four is almost always a success but I could see myself saying "that was a good season" if the 'Cats even come up short of that, in the Elite Eight for example, so long as they are once again one of the teams we're talking about on Selection Sunday as having a chance to cut down the nets. That means the season went well.
Who will be Kentucky's MVP?
My working assumption has been that freshman guard Tyrese Maxey will be the Wildcats' best player this year and there's no reason to change course on that now. He should be UK's leading scorer and while I do expect ups and downs, he's the best two-way player on the team, and the most skilled.
Who will be the biggest surprise on the team?
Here I'll go with Nate Sestina. "Surprise" will be a debatable label, but the more we've heard and seen of him, that shot is a work of art and there's no guarantee UK will be able to keep him off the court with that range and the other frontcourt questions.