Four keys to a Kentucky win against Virginia Tech

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Published Dec 30, 2019

Four keys to a Kentucky win against Virginia Tech

Justin Rowland • CatsIllustrated

Publisher

@RowlandRIVALS

What does Kentucky need to do in order to defeat Virginia Tech in Charlotte on Tuesday?

There's not just one formula that would work, but there are several things we can identify, based on who these teams have been, that could help.

Opportunistic defense ... Virginia Tech has put the ball on the turf 20 times. The Hokies have lost 14 of those fumbles this season. They are second to last, tied for No. 127 in the country, in fumbles lost through regular season action. In spite of picking off 13 passes, Virginia Tech is -5 in turnover margin this season largely because of those fumbles. They have turned it over 22 times in 12 games. Virginia Tech is +3 in turnover margin in its eight wins but -8 in its four losses. Tech turned it over nine times in November so this is a problem that didn't get better towards the end of the season.

Get off the field on third down ... Virginia Tech is converting 38-percent of its third down opportunities on the season, but only 25-percent during the last four games of the regular season. Simply put, that was a problem, even as the Hokies were pretty competitive. If Kentucky can get off the field with regularity on third down, it makes a win much more likely.

Eliminate long plays from scrimmage ... Easier said than done, but that's the case with all of these, right? Virginia Tech ranks 16th in the country in offensive plays that went 50 or more yards. That helps explain how a team that was relatively inefficient managed to score a lot of points (30-plus on average for the year) this season. Fortunately for Kentucky, preventing big plays is a strength. While winning third down is often about winning one-on-ones in pass rush or coverage situations, eliminating long plays is largely about playing fundamentally sound, disciplined football and avoiding breakdowns.

Touchdowns in the red zone ... Kentucky has become one of the best teams in the nation when it comes to putting together and sustaining long drives that span much of the field. They will need to turn those into touchdowns, as always, since possessions will be at a premium with both teams rushing the ball so much. Virginia Tech is ninth in the country in red zone defense and only allows touchdowns on just more than half of opponents trips inside the 20.