First look at the NCAA Tournament
After weeks of guessing and speculation we now know what the NCAA Tournament schedule looks like. With it comes the subsequent bracket contests, and the opening weekend which is one of the best times on the entire sports calendar.
Guessing is fun, but for the analytical nerds services like KenPom are go-to staples for those looking for an edge. His Adjusted Efficiency Margin which combines Adjusted Offensive and Adjusted Defensive Efficiencies is a statistical rubric we have followed closely throughout the season.
Once again we turn to those numbers as we attempt to get a feel for the opening two rounds of the Big Dance.
The Most Undervalued Teams
From KenPom's viewpoint there are a couple of teams who could have been rated higher. BYU is the first team of note. The Cougars are the six-seed in the East, and will open up against Duquesne. However, they are ranked No. 16 according to Pomeroy. The other teams in the six spots are Texas Tech, Clemson, and South Carolina. They come in at No.24, No. 34, and No. 49 respectively according to the analytics. With a win BYU could possibly play Illinois in the second round in a three/six matchup. Pomeroy's Adjusted Efficiency Margin has the Fighting Illini four points better in the tightest game by far in the four games with these seedings.
Michigan State is in a similar position. They come in with a lower seeding despite being the analytical darling. This year the Spartans are the nine-seed in the West, and have an opening game bloodbath scheduled with Mississippi State. Despite having a 19-14 record, Pomeroy loves them as the number 18 record indicates. The other nine seeds are TCU (No. 33), Texas A&M (No. 44), and Northwestern (No. 46). North Carolina's possible second round opponent could be Michigan State. Despite being a one/nine matchup, KenPom only gives the Tar Heels around a 4.5 point advantage. This is one we might not buy as much, but Tom Izzo is a legendary coach for a reason.
New Mexico may be the biggest under seed in the tournament according to Pomeroy. The No. 11 team in the West Region is ranked No. 23 overall. The analytics likes them by exactly two points in the opener over Clemson despite being seeded five spots lower. If the Lobos played the other No. 6 seeds, KenPom would make them a 5.5 point favorite over Oregon, a six-point favorite over North Carolina State, and a 9.5 point favorite over Duquesne. A win there could result in a possible matchup with third seed Baylor. This would be worth a strong look towards New Mexico. Pomeroy takes the Bears by only basically a 2.5 points in a three/eleven game. That might be the big upset everyone is looking for.
Colorado is in a similar spot with New Mexico. They are actually in play-in game with Boise State despite being ranked No. 26 overall. An extra game between a pair of 10-seeds is interesting. Pomeroy likes the Buffs by two-points. He also would make them a slight favorite over Boise State in the Round of 64 in a seven/ten matchup. A two/ten affair between Colorado and Marquette only has a four-point adjusted difference according to KenPom.
The Most Overvalued Teams
South Carolina is the lowest rated single digit team. They are a six-seed with a No. 49 KenPom ranking. They are in-between No. 48 Utah State with an eight seed, and No. 51 Drake with a 10-seed. The next lowest rated six-seed is Clemson who comes in at No. 34. Pomeroy gives the Gamecocks a slight 1.5 point advantage in the six/eleven pairing.
Virginia is a high profile program that some did not expect to get into the tournament. There was lots of talk Saturday night that the ACC title run by North Carolina State interestingly enough may have knocked out their rival Cavaliers off the bubble. They did make it at the ten-seed despite having a low KenPom ranking of No. 69. Three 12 seeds, and one 11 seed have higher ratings. They also come in much lower than the other 10-seeds that consists of Nevada at No. 36, No. 38 Colorado State, and No. 39 Boise State. Virginia is actually in the play-in game against Colorado State. Pomeroy has the Cavaliers at about a 4.5 point underdog according to his Adjusted Efficiency Margin.
Utah State is and eight-seed in the Midwest. They are rated at No. 48. The other eight-seeds are No. 28 Nebraska, No. 30 Mississippi State, and No. 41 Florida Atlantic. They open with TCU in the eight/nine game. Despite being the low seed, KenPom gives them a two-point advantage.
Which High Seed Got the Best Break?
That would be North Carolina for a couple of reasons. Depending on the bracketologist you trust the most, the Tar Heels were not a lock for the one line when we went to bed Saturday night. Jerry Palm was just one that had them as a two-seed. He seemed to take the conference tournaments into account more that a Joe Lunardi. Keeping that in mind he chose Iowa State as the final one seed. Tennessee and Arizona were heavily in the mix. But when the Cyclones were announced as the two in the East, it was pretty apparent that UNC would be heading west holding the top spot.
North Carolina is also No. 9 in the KenPom rankings. The others are top-ranked UCONN, No. 2 Houston, and No. 3 Purdue. This is by no means any statement that the West is a cakewalk, nor that the Tar Heels are not deserving. They will have a war with the Mississippi State/Michigan State winner. Second seeded Arizona is also the national media's choice when it comes to taking a team lower than a one. The Wildcats will also be playing in their backyard. North Carolina will still be a hard out, and going into Sunday afternoon they were the only one seed with a question mark.
Which High Seed Has the Biggest Gripe?
Auburn has had a great look throughout the season. They appeared to be one of the better teams in the country early on. KenPom has had them in his top-10 from start to finish. We also picked them to win the SEC Tournament based on Pomeroy's Efficiency Ratings. They did just that with an 86-67 championship game win Sunday against Florida.
Lunardi had them at the overall No. 12 spot going into the game against the Gators. That gave them a three-seed in the East. The Tigers were rewarded with a four-seed in that region. A one place fall to No. 13 not only dropped them that spot, but also put them in the path of UCONN in the Sweet 16. To make matters worse that game will be in TD Gardens in Boston which will be a virtual home game for the defending National Champions.
There is only one team in the country who is ranked in the top-10 in Pomeroy's Adjusted Offensive and Defensive rankings. That would be Auburn who comes in at tenth and fourth respectively. They are ranked No. 4 overall by KenPom which furthers the point that the East Region has that Murderer's Row look. Iowa State is No. 5, and Illinois is tenth. That means four of Pomeroy's top-10 teams are in this quarter of the bracket.
Who Has a Good Chance of an Early Round Upset?
Washington State (7) Drake (10) - East Region
Drake comes into the game with an impressive 28-6 record out of the Missouri Valley Conference. They are ranked No. 51 while Washington State 24-9 is No. 42. KenPom gives the Cougars less than a two-point advantage despite being the high seed.
Clemson (6) New Mexico (11) - West Region
We have also tagged Richard Pitino's Lobos as one of the most overlooked teams in the Big Dance. If KenPom is any indicator the seedings in this game should be flipped. New Mexico is No. 23 while the Tigers are No. 34. He gives the bunch from Albuquerque a two-point edge despite being five seeds lower.
Dayton (7) Nevada (10) - West Region
The teams may be three seeds apart, but Pomeroy sees this game as almost a wash. Dayton is No. 32. Nevada is No. 36. He gives the Flyers roughly a half-point advantage.
Florida (7) vs. Boise State (10)/Colorado (10) Winner - South Region
Florida is a really good team that lots of Basketball people like. Boise State and Colorado are as well. The Gators are ranked No. 29, whereas Colorado is actually rated three spots higher at No. 26. Boise State is No. 39. Florida also lost their center, Micah Handlogten, Sunday with a gruesome lower leg injury. Pomeroy gives the Buffaloes the slightest of advantages against Todd Golden's troops. Boise State is ranked around two points lower.
South Carolina (6) Oregon (11) - Midwest Region
The Gamecocks come in at No. 49, the Ducks are No. 55. USC has a two-point edge according to KenPom which is very close in a six/eleven game.