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Published Jun 29, 2021
Early Opponent Preview: Missouri
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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Cats Illustrated is marching through the list of opponents Kentucky is facing on the gridiron in 2021.

We began with a look at the ULM Warhawks, coached by Terry Bowden.

That should be a Kentucky win.

UK's Week 2 opponent, the Missouri Tigers, present a much more formidable challenge.

While UK had gained mastery of the Tigers from 2015-2019, first-year Mizzou coach Eliah Drinkwitz got the best of Mark Stoops' Cats during the 2020 season in a lackluster performance for Kentucky.

So without delay, here's a look at Missouri.

THREE THINGS WE KNOW

1. The Tigers have an efficient quarterback.

Maybe the best thing we saw from freshman quarterback and former Kentucky target Connor Bazelak last year was he has some maturity behind center. The Tigers will want to become more explosive than they were a year ago, but efficient wasn't really a problem. Efficiency is how Bazelak carved Kentucky's defense up. It wasn't really about racing up and down the field or lighting up the scoreboard. Rather, Bazelak took what Kentucky gave him. Then he took it again and again and again, until it felt like the 'Cats never really had an opportunity to get on track.

Bazelak only threw seven touchdowns against six interceptions last year, but he completed 67% of his throws for 2,366 yards in much less action than would typically be a full season's work.

He had a very strange season. In seven of Bazelak's games he did not throw a touchdown passes. Half (3) of his interceptions (6) came in the season finale alone. In six of his games he did not throw an interception.

So most of the time Bazelak was completing passes and moving the ball, but he was avoiding both great plays and bad plays. It would seem his next step as a quarterback would be to make more professional level throws that change the course of a game.

He'll have Ohio State transfer Mookie Cooper to get the ball to and that could make the offense more explosive.

2. It's the Tyler Badie Show at running back.

Missouri does have some depth at running back but this is the most opportunity Tyler Badie will have ever had in the backfield. The senior has been playing behind the very successful Larry Rountree, who had 972 yards and 14 touchdowns on 209 carries last year. That was four times as many touches as Badie had, and Rountree had long cast a big shadow over everyone else in the Missouri running back room.

Badie has some pedigree and has been around forever. He was an all-freshman SEC selection in 2018 and has always gotten his numbers, totaling nearly 2,000 all-purpose yards in his first two years and then chipping in with 333 receiving yards and 28 catches last year.

Those receiving skills are a dream come true for a quarterback like Bazelak, who will happily throw him the ball as much as possible.

3. The Tigers should have a solid defensive line.

This is a team that gave up 32.3 points per game last year. That's not quite as bad as it seems given that some of the "gimme" games were wiped out by COVID, but it simply wasn't a good defense (more on that soon). It was good against Kentucky but that was one of the exceptions to the rule.

What Mizzou should have is a solid defensive line. Trajan Jeffcoat could contend for All-SEC honors. Three starters and several rotation pieces return.

All that is to say, Kentucky might not be able to just line up and blow the Tigers off the ball. There's going to have to be some balance this year. Mizzou had balance against Kentucky last year. Not explosive but efficient. UK needs to be more of that against the Tigers this year.

THREE THINGS WE'RE ASKING

1. How much can Steve Wilks improve the defense?

It certainly needs improving. If you only watch Kentucky football games you might have gotten the wrong impression. While UK couldn't do much of anything in a 20-10 loss to Missouri in Columbia, that was probably the highwater mark for the Tigers' defense all season. This was a team that surrendered 32.3 points per game. When Missouri wasn't playing Kentucky, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt, this defense struggled.

That explains why a lot of Missouri fans weren't disappointed with the defensive coordinator shakeup that led to the hiring of Steve Wilks, who arrives with impressive NFL credentials and a long coaching track record but not much at the collegiate level in a while.

Fixing the defense will involve improvement at every level of the defense and Wilks will have to do it without Nick Bolton, who had anchored the team at linebacker for the previous couple of seasons. Rice transfer Blaze Alldredge was as active as almost any player in the nation during his Group of Five level career and we'll see how that translates to the SEC.

Missouri has the personnel to take a step forward and playing a typical rather than all-SEC schedule will make the overall numbers look better than in 2020. But there is still a question about this group's ceiling and the way last season finished couldn't have inspired too much confidence.

2. How will Blaze Alldredge's game translate to the SEC?

In only five games last year Alldredge had 47 tackles, three tackles for loss, a sack, and a pick for Rice. The year before that he had four sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss.

The two-time first team All-Conference USA linebacker was one of the most productive defensive players in college football over the last couple of seasons, and he could be a huge help in replacing the productivity and leadership provided by Nick Bolton.

He'll be playing alongside Devin Nicholson, who had a very active season at linebacker as well.

But as everyone knows, when a player transfers "up" from the FCS or G5 level to a Power Five conference, especially the SEC, it's not entirely clear how that production and performance level will translate. The answer to that question could be very significant for Missouri's improvement project on that side of the ball.

He was dominant against Texas in a game for Rice, and that's a good sign for him.

3. How will Eliah Drinkwitz fare as a second-year coach somewhere?

Missouri's coach had the Tigers more competitive than expected in his first year in Columbia, even in a very unconventional season last year. He was 12-1 in his only season at Appalachian State the year before that.

On the surface that's an impressive if small resume. But it's important to highlight that it really is a very small sample size. In fact, this is the first time that Drinkwitz has been a Year 2 head coach anywhere.

The challenges that come with building on early success and sustaining it are somewhat different than the task of turning something around or implementing a system. We haven't seen anything from Drinkwitz that would be a big red flag in this regard, but for someone who is viewed as something of an up-and-comer, there's still a lot of unknown here.

FIVE PLAYERS TO WATCH

QB Connor Bazelak

LB Devin Nicholson

WR Keke Chism

C Michael Maietti

DL Trajan Jeffcoat

EARLY MATCHUP ANALYSIS

It might be wise not to read too much into last year's meeting between Kentucky and Missouri. Although none of UK's players wanted to cite the issue as a determining factor in the outcome at the time, the absence of John Schlarman had to make motivation and focus more difficult than usual. UK just didn't seem to be the best version of itself that day and to Missouri's credit, and Bazelak's, the Tigers executed the perfect game plan based on how Kentucky plays defense: Methodical, efficient, and avoiding the bad idea that is forcing the action where plays aren't available.

Overall, Kentucky probably has the more talented roster. But Missouri has a more proven quarterback situation and did seem to have the perfect game plan for how to handle the Wildcats and what they typically do. Many prognosticators believe either Missouri or Kentucky will finish third in the East, behind Georgia and Florida. This game belongs in the toss-up column.

Kentucky's defense must get off the field this year.

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