Advertisement
basketball Edit

Could less actually be more with these Cats?

John Calipari spoke with his three-guard lineup during a break in the action against Auburn on Saturday.
John Calipari spoke with his three-guard lineup during a break in the action against Auburn on Saturday. (Jeff Drummond/Cats Illustrated)

I had an interesting discussion with a friend this weekend after Kentucky's hard-fought win over Auburn.

It began as a simple question: Where would you rank this squad among the 11 that John Calipari has coached during his time at UK?

It's a bit of an unfair question, I initially replied, because we're judging a work in progress versus the finished product from other seasons. But, hey, that's never stopped us before in the Bluegrass State. I'll take a stab at it.

Of course, one immediately starts thinking about teams like the 2012 national champions, the 2015 team that took a 38-0 record into the Final Four, and the 2010 squad led by John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins.

That's clearly the top tier.

Then you have the 2017 team that was a last-second shot in Memphis away from potentially cutting down the nets and a 2019 squad that looked primed for a title run before running into red-hot Auburn in the Elite Eight.

Two other teams (2011, 2014) over-achieved in advancing to the Final Four despite some serious growing pains during the regular season.

The only Calipari UK teams that would not be in the discussion are the 2013 No-Noel NIT squad; the 2016 all-guard/nothing inside team that lost to Indiana in the second round; and the 2018 unit that seemed to have a golden path through a busted South bracket but missed a gazillion free throws against Kansas State in a disappointing Sweet 16 exit.

So, initially, I thought maybe six or seven for this 2020 team. Middle of the pack.

Upon further reflection, though, I wondered if I might be short-changing the 24-5 SEC champions.

Some may scoff at the notion. After all, this is the team that lost to Evansville (which went on to go 0-18 in its conference) back in November.

Evansville. Evansville. Evansville. Right, Cal?

But if one can get past the fact that UK lost to an outmatched opponent on Nov. 12 and focus on what the Cats are currently doing, it's a fair question.

I think one can make a strong case that these Cats, while not as talented as some of Calipari's other squads, are better equipped for a championship run than maybe all but three or four. Here's why:

1. Built for March

This one is two-fold.

Unlike most of Calipari's other teams, UK is not dependent on freshmen. The Cats start only one, Tyrese Maxey. He is surrounded by three sophomores and a junior who have been there, done that. They bring a grad transfer senior off the bench. They're not deep, but they do have an abundance of experience.

The other thing about March is guard play. It's still king.

If you listened to Bruce Pearl after Saturday's game, the Auburn coach made the case that UK's Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley, and Maxey comprise the best backcourt in the nation.

He should know. Pearl rode elite guard play all the way to an upset of UK and a spot in the Final Four last year.

The team that eventually wound up cutting down the nets, Virginia, also had great guard play. The Cavaliers used it to slip past Auburn.

Quick. Name the last national champion that merely had average guard play... It's not easy.

Maybe the Carmelo Anthony-led Syracuse team in 2003? Even the Orangemen had decent ones in Gerry McNamara and Billy Edelin.

If you want to win in this era, you gotta have it. Kentucky has it.

2. Balance

Kentucky is not overly reliant on one player to carry the scoring load. Opponents have to focus the defensive game plan on someone, but it's not an easy decision.

Lately, that's been Quickley, and it definitely helps to have a hot hand going into the tourney. He's had 18 consecutive double-figure scoring games. Only Malik Monk has a longer streak for UK in recent years.

But three weeks ago, it may have been 7-foot center Nick Richards. Earlier in the season, maybe Hagans or Maxey. All four of those guys -- and the Cats' other starter, forward E.J. Montgomery -- have had at least one game scoring 25 or more points. Can anyone else boast that from their starting lineup? No.

Even reserve big man Nate Sestina has led UK in scoring once this season, against a ranked opponent no less, with 17 points against Ohio State.

For most teams in the tourney, if its leading scorer has an "off game," that's the end of the road. The same could even be said for some of Calipari's other squads, particularly with Brandon Knight in 2011.

It won't likely apply to this one.

3. The free-throw line

Here's the thing that arguably sets Kentucky apart from any other contender. The Cats are now shooting an exceptional 80% as a team from the charity stripe. That currently ranks third in the nation, just a fraction behind the leader, Northeastern, at 80.1%

Ironic, isn't it? The thing that used to keep Big Blue Nation up at night as Calipari teams entered the NCAA Tournament is now arguably the Cats' greatest weapon.

Think about it. Calipari may have (at least) three more titles to his credit if former teams could shoot free throws at an average clip, let alone what this current unit is doing.

Memphis let one slip away in 2009, missing almost everything down the stretch against Kansas, setting up the Jayhawks' buzzer-beating game-winner. The 2010 Cats went 16-for-29 in the devastating Elite Eight loss to West Virginia. The following year, UK went 4-of-12 in a one-point loss to UConn at Houston's cavernous Reliant Stadium.

In 2014, UConn was the beneficiary again as the Cats missed 11 of their 24 free throws in a six-point loss. The 2017 team went 12 of 19 against North Carolina and lost a heartbreaker at the buzzer. We won't even talk about 2018 versus Kansas State.

It should not be an issue this year. The Cats' starting backcourt is shooting 92%, 83% and 81% at the stripe. Their big man, the problem area for many top teams, is shooting 75% The weakest link in the entire rotation is 63%

The other top contenders may not be as fortunate. To put it in perspective, there is only one projected No. 1 seed in the Top 50 nationally for free-throw shooting -- San Diego State, 23rd, at 76% The likely No. 1 overall seed, Kansas, comes in at 286th nationally with a 67% mark.

Rounding out the top eight teams in the most recent NET rankings: Gonzaga (247th, 69%), Dayton (137th, 72%), Baylor (222nd, 69%), Duke (185th, 71%), Michigan State (49th, 75%) and Louisville (94th, 73%).

Advertisement