Summer is knocking at the door, and that means Big Blue Nation's focus will soon be shifting to football. In our latest edition of the CI Roundtable, our staff and one member of the House of Blue mulls the question: is the Toledo game on Aug. 30 the most important season opener of Mark Stoops' career at UK?
JEFF DRUMMOND:
The mood surrounding the Kentucky fan base has been ominous dating back to the final game of a disastrous 2024 season. Although Mark Stoops is the most successful UK head coach in the modern era and has guided the Wildcats to the postseason in eight of the last nine years, BBN morale is at its lowest point since the start of the 2016 season.
One could argue this is the year UK could use a true "cupcake" coming to Kroger Field for the season opener. Instead, the Cats will welcome a Toledo squad that is coming off an 8-5 season and a 48-46 bowl victory over Pittsburgh. The Rockets are no strangers to playing P5 opponents. In addition to the Pitt win, they won 41-17 last season at Mississippi State (a place Kentucky has long struggled), and they played Illinois to a 30-28 game two years ago. Toledo played at Ohio State and Notre Dame in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, so it's not a team that will be intimidated by playing in Lexington.
I believe this is the most important opener of Stoops' career at UK. I toss out the Auburn opener in 2020 because that was the Covid season, and everything was weird that year. Bottom line: the Cats have to be 1-0 entering a Week 2 matchup with Ole Miss, and it won't be easy. Not only do they need to win, but they have to do so in a fashion that gives the fan base hope to compete against SEC foes.
DAVID SISK:
If Kentucky loses to Toledo, it will be the most important season opener of the Mark Stoops regime, because, barring a major turnaround, his job status would be in major peril. I’m not sure how many wins he will need to keep his job, but even with a win, he faces a major uphill climb against a daunting schedule.
The Rockets won 11 games last year and were undefeated in the MAC two years ago. Last year, they went 8-5 overall and 4-4 in league play. The FPI gives them a 28.1% chance to win their conference, which is the best in the league. Interestingly enough, the FPI projects both teams will jump 14 spots from last season. The Cats are projected at No. 34 while Toledo comes in at No. 73.
However, even with a win, it won’t get any easier with Ole Miss coming to town in Week 2. Stoops needs momentum going into that one, or the wheels could fall off in a hurry.
HOB MEMBER TUCKERLLOYD:
Yes, I believe it is. I, unlike many fans, am going to wait and see how this season goes before calling for Stoops’ head. While my hopes are not necessarily high, I think Stoops and the staff did as good as a job in the portal this year as they could have, and it’s unfair to give up on this team before they even take a snap.
If you lose to Toledo, the energy around the team and with the fanbase is going to be unlike anything in the Stoops era. Losing a game like that before the calendar even turns to September would be disastrous. While they are one of the better teams in the MAC, it’s a team you should beat, and there are zero excuses not to. I don't even think you need to impress... just do not lose that game. Losing any opener to an inferior opponent would derail a season, but with the current state of the program, not sure Stoops and co can recover from losing this one.
If you beat Toledo, the Ole Miss game week 2 will have some juice to it, similar to the South Carolina game. Ole Miss is very beatable and while previous teams have not been able to win games like this, this team deserves a chance to prove us wrong. Win that game, and you've got all the energy and momentum heading into SEC play with a chance to make some noise.
