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Published Sep 26, 2021
Buy or Sell: Your hot takes on Kentucky football
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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@RowlandRIVALS

Kentucky fans brought plenty of hot takes about their Wildcats after a 16-10 win in Columbia, the program's seventh win in eight tries against the Gamecocks.

In this edition of Buy or Sell, Cats Illustrated publisher Justin Rowland surveys your hot takes and provides commentary.

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That's an optimistic take but also realistic. Rather than saying they haven't played well offensively, I would say they haven't put together a complete game. The offense carried UK against Mizzou while the defense struggled. I don't think either unit played particularly well against Chattanooga, and the defense carried them against South Carolina.

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I'm not going to pick against Georgia and frankly the way Florida has looked I think the Cats' road to Atlanta is probably even a little harder than I thought before the season, even if the schedule is easier. But they're 4-0 and in the next two weeks we're going to find out if you're right.

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Last in the country in giveaways, last in the country in turnover margin. And they're 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the SEC. That really is remarkable. And yes, I believe part of it is a testament to their talent. The defense deserves a huge tip of the hat, allowing zero points off those three turnovers, given where UK gave the ball away.

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I'm going to have to watch the game again to come up with a strong opinion here but I thought it was a mixed bag up front last night. Kinnard had some uncharacteristic struggles but Fortner was good and Kentucky rushed for 230 yards on the road.

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Not sure where you're getting that percentage from but I'd give them a 35-40% chance given how the atmosphere will be at Kroger and the way they typically get up for this game. It should come down to the fourth quarter. And I agree, the last three games were all decided by single digits but should have been 14 point wins or better.

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I don't think LSU or Mississippi State has looked so good that you can mark either or both of those games as losses. Georgia is going to be extremely difficult. It's going to be hard to block them long enough to get passes off in that game. But I could see UK having a shot against Florida. Agree, it was a great game for the defense.

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I'm with you there. We could go either direction with that. They've been so bad with the turnovers that you have to wonder if that's just who they're going to be all year. But on the other hand, the ceiling must be really high because they're winning against the odds. Both are probably true, but at some point they're going to have to put together a clean game for me to think it's in their DNA.

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I have to believe that turnovers are going to start to regress to the mean. I don't know if that means they're going to eventually start winning that margin often, but it can't be any worse than it is. That's pretty clear. And I'm with you, win 1 of UF and LSU and nine or 10 regular season wins is possible.

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Can't see the all-22 footage but you've got to be right. It would have been criminal negligence for opposing DCs to not take away the deep ball based on how Levis threw those in the first couple of games.

The good news is that should open up other things if the safeties are back. But he's going to have to become more surgical in the passing game. I thought it was less about accuracy and more about needing to know when to get rid of the ball.

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I think they were in that ballpark back in 2018, and Josh Allen was a crucial ingredient there. That's my way of saying I think they have the kind of depth and balance at most positions that any coach would like but to be top five they'd need someone else to play at close to that level.

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It could be a top-15 caliber team if they cut the mistakes down to an average level. That's saying a lot. As for elite, I'm not sure that exists outside of Alabama and Georgia this year. But I get what you're saying. To be 4-0 after what we've seen is pretty impressive.

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Buy that and I've felt that way myself. They're doing what it takes to win. Still haven't put together a complete game.

Saturday night should be one of the best atmospheres Kentucky fans have seen and been a part of.

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I'm inclined to agree. We saw glimpses of it in the first half against Missouri and on that first drive against South Carolina. When UK has needed to dig in and play very well, it has done that.

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There's no question that a -2 or -3 turnover margin against Florida is something they will not survive. So they have to buck the trend and reverse that at least for one game. I'm not sure what the coaches should do about ball security this week. They emphasized it after Missouri and it wasn't better against Chattanooga. I'm sure they emphasized it after Chattanooga and amazingly it was arguably worse against South Carolina. It could be a mental thing, but it doesn't look like they're thinking too much about it because some of those fumbles don't even appear to be tremendous effort by the defense.

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Winning games against Missouri and South Carolina in spite of the turnover margins they've had this year is pretty impressive in my mind. Agree, they don't survive that against UGA or UF but it's impressive to win any SEC road game with those butterfingers.

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The biggest issue for Rodriguez is how hard he runs. He ends up getting turned around and the ball gets exposed as he's fighting for extra yards. That kind of running is just who he is and they have to hope it gets better because when he's out they're a different team. After those two fumbles he went above and beyond to cover it up.

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The most I can tell is they are probably at least the third best team in the East unless I'm really sleeping on the Vols. That's a pretty good floor for this point in the season. As to whether they can be as good as Florida, I think that's an open question. It all revolves around whether they have it in them to play clean.

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The defense had been somewhat maligned after the previous two games and they really responded. We're talking about surviving the nation's worst turnover margin. Against South Carolina, that's because the defense turned the Gamecocks back time and again after being put in bad positions. Every single time USC got the ball in the middle of the field. They locked down every time they needed to and have really dominated the Gamecocks for most of these past eight years.

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Wise approach. When I'm reading posts or social media I often find myself either chuckling or shaking my head at the amount of people who are taking for granted that they're 2-0 in SEC play. I get it, during the game it's going to be tense. But it's so much better than it has often been.

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They've schemed and set up some really great plays to the tight ends this year. The first dump off to Bates was set up by lots of in-line blocking. Cummings is the guy they are really targeting really often when he's in the game. The others, they're using once they get the defense locked in on something. But against USC and Mizzou they didn't really need to stop running the ball.

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This is a really huge deal and I've mentioned it a lot myself, so buy all the way. There have been scary moments that looked like potential turnovers and there have been a lot of hidden yards lost to poor decisions on fair catch or field decisions. Both Wan'Dale and Ali have struggled. In the past, Stoops has put a hands guy back there to just make the right decision. Maybe that's the right approach.

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There has definitely been a culture change to lead to those different outcomes in close games. I've credited a lot of it to Josh Allen, who personally intervened and made game-winning plays in the second half during 2018, and since then it seems like the mentality has changed.

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We've known about the schedule for a long time. Even if they're 5-3, that's still in a good position to land in a really nice bowl game at the end of the season. And if, somehow, they're 6-2 then it's potentially one of the best seasons UK has had.

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The thing I like most about Levis is he is a competitor. You don't see fear in the way he plays. He knows when to stretch out and take contact to rush for a first down. When Kentucky has to put together a drive he starts to find his rhythm and makes confident reads. Agree, I still see a lot of potential there even if he's still very much a work in progress when the over the top stuff is taken away.

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Haven't heard a timetable for Crowdus' return but that's a lot of time missed for a true freshman who could have been rounding into form. I've thought the receivers have been pretty open all season, but the only guys getting a ton of action are Robinson, Ali, and Epps, so it's hard to say how the others would be doing. That they aren't playing more is probably a sign that depth is still considered an issue there.

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Somebody could make a case that this isn't crazy off base but it seems a bit pessimistic to me. They'll definitely be underdogs in the next two, heck, maybe in the next four. Should be a favorite against Tennessee, although I agree, it probably won't be easy. Louisville is a toss-up only if Kentucky turns it over like it has this year. They aren't going to be able to slow down the run game.

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Interesting way to put it and it's got to be true. Most UK teams before 2018 could not have survived this kind of turnover margin.

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That's harsh. They're 4-0. The defense looked fantastic against South Carolina. The offense, even though it's taken some punches, has executed when it has needed to. They have definitely benefited from the schedule early on. It has set up well for them to withstand the sloppy play.

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Sell. There are at least two more games they can win while still -2 or -3 in turnovers. That's an absolute worst case scenario though.

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Pre-injury Stephen Johnson had some really good games, but there were always a lot of games with very limited numbers as well. I think people are being a bit hard on Levis, my opinion only.

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That has been a common complaint under Stoops and I don't quite get it. Most coaches adjust their defense based on game circumstances and Kentucky does not have a recent history of just blowing big leads. The formula has worked.

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Well, they might win the national championship so you could say that about them against almost anybody.

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I would probably go with him or Andru Phillips. My first take was Phillips but I understand the thinking with C-Rod's fumbling. I'd still go Phillips but would be fine with picking either.

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You said that very well. Football is a chess match and there are always adjustments and counters going on. I think Kentucky's counter to some of the moves has been to dig in and reassert that kind of football it played in the past in the new scheme.

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The pace of Kentucky's improvement has been really perfect if you think about it. If he had come in and gone 2-10, 8-5, 10-3 he probably would have been really hard to hold onto. As it is, it's been a slower climb up the SEC ladder and UK has been rewarding him handsomely along the way.

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The way this take started I thought you were going to exaggerate but one of the worst in the Stoops era? So far, definitely. I know the connection some are making, that they need a full time special teams coordinator. And while I'm not saying that fixes it, I understand where they're coming from and it's just going to be how people feel when the unit doesn't perform. This is a real issue. It's hard to imagine Kentucky winning nine or ten regular season games if the special teams don't improve substantially.

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