Cats Illustrated's "Buy or Sell" feature is a regular content item during Kentucky's football season. In this series I ask for your hot takes on UK football, then share my response to your brainstorming.
It's been a long time since the Belk Bowl victory against NC State and a lot has changed for UK football since then, so I decided to open it up for a special offseason edition.
Here's my response to some of you who responded.
Buy the balance. As for the 9-3, that's probably a game or two more bullish than I am for the regular season, but 9-3 is not outside the realm of possibility. But they'll definitely be more balanced. They really can't be any less balanced, can they?
If they go 9-3 in the regular season then I agree, recruiting will benefit for the next season or two, just as you said. That seems to be what happened after the 2018 season when they were putting together the 2020 class riding that 10-win Citrus Bowl momentum.
Buy the general idea as very important. I'm not sure if it's the most important question, but it's one I've asked myself. I don't think Stoops is the micromanager than some have portrayed but it will be interesting to see how much Kentucky opens it up. I don't think Coen is someone who just wants to sling the ball across the yard 50 times most weeks so the power dimension is probably not going anywhere. They may still run more than they pass and will probably run more than most teams. But I do wonder how much they open it up.
For me the issue is how aggressive and how much risk is Stoops comfortable with. I think minimizing risk to protect the defense and control the type of game that's played has been one (of many) reason(s) the offense has been lackluster, in the service of what Stoops probably thinks is a greater good (better to win a low scoring game than lose a high scoring game).
Sell but it's not crazy. I would say 2018 was probably their best chance and this year is to be determined. UGA is going to be a sizeable favorite against Kentucky and the Cats have to prove they can move the ball and score against that UGA defense. Or, they need a turnover-fueled performance by the Bulldogs. That's just a tough matchup for me until UK proves its offense can narrow the gap and make the Dawgs break a sweat.
The Florida game should be an opportunity, I'll agree with that.
I'm predicting more losses than two but there's a chance Kentucky could be a favorite in nine games.
Torn on how you measure that. Some are going to jump all over you and shout you down. But I get how someone could make that point. Stoops took over Kentucky football at the end of the Joker era which is about as bad as a Power Five program can get other than what you've seen at Kansas for the last decade. To go from that to five straight bowls and three straight bowl wins within nine years is quite impressive.
Cal inherited an NIT team but it's easier to turn things around quickly with the right basketball coach because of the nature of the sport and the way recruiting pays immediate dividends.
In short, I actually lean towards agreeing with you because it's not at all surprising that Kentucky has been the best program in the sport over the past decade. That was probably true in the 40s, 50s, and 90s as well. But when you put someone who hasn't won his division above someone who has been the best tournament coach in the sport for the past decade, you run the risk of alienating a big part of the audience. Good discussion topic.
Not sure how to characterize the message in my response. I have no clue how the quarterbacks are going to play but I at least agree that Levis will probably get the first shot and it wouldn't at all be a surprise if Gatewood gets his opportunity to run the show at some point, too. I've said I'm a believe it when I see it on the offense but I do think it will be substantially improved.
I guess my big issue with your take is I don't think 7-5 would be really a disappointing season, which is how it seems you are depicting it. The schedule sets up really nice for them but I have more questions about this UK team, at this point in the year, than in a couple of others recently.
Sell but shoot your shot. Good chance they'd have a 13th game if it plays out like that, unless the loss is to UGA and the Bulldogs only have one misstep.
Sell. But I think he's going to have a good season. I really like Dort in coverage. The thing he needs to do is consistently come up and hit people in run support. To me the competition for the starting corner spots seems pretty wide open but the one thing I'm confident of is Dort playing a heck of a lot.
Sell. But I think he can be an All-SEC player. In terms of raw talent he doesn't have the plus level speed that you're going to find with some other running backs and I think it's very interesting to think about how the change in blocking schemes and offense could impact him. He's going to need to show off a different kind of skill set than he has to date. I just think for a running back to make it as a Heisman finalist the numbers and team accomplishments would really have to be ridiculous.
Sell. But this is their best duo in quite some time, at least since 2016 and possibly going back as far as 2010. It almost happened that year, when Randall Cobb had 1,017 yards and Chris Matthews finished with 925.
To have two 1,000 yard receivers I think you typically have to be like a Big XII team or at least not be in the SEC.
Sell. If one of them gets to 1,200 yards that's an awesome foundation for the offense to build around. Can't see both getting there. For Smoke the big thing is whether he can show the kind of durability that has been lacking.
Sell. I had a chuckle. I'll give you that if all of that stuff happens then it will be hard to hold onto Mark Stoops for another year. But he'd then be in line for the kind of raise that might make him think he can stick around and accomplish he's biggest dreams as a coach.
Sell. But I totally understand that (and why) a lot of people are going to feel that way. The schedule makes it easy to feel that way I'm sure. When I see stuff like that (and not saying this about you in particular, just in general) the first thing I think is, "Well other teams have good rosters and want to win, too." There's a lot of talent at every SEC school absent maybe Vanderbilt and a 9-3 regular season is tough to come by. if they beat Missouri in Week 2 and end up undefeated going into that three-game brutal stretch in the middle of the season we might be on the same page, though.
I think he could approach that kind of yardage and it's actually not crazy to say it could happen because other than Hartline who else has put up really great numbers during that time period? 20 touchdowns seems achievable even if they have almost always been a long way off from that for most of the last decade.
I could also see that about Trevin Wallace. That's hard to predict one way or another because the playing time situation is only partly in his hands, and opportunity often has as much to do with how great a player is on the freshman team.
What I'll say about UK-UGA is I think for Kentucky to ever get to Atlanta they will probably have to beat Georgia head to head. Just because under Kirby Smart you are rarely going to see Georgia give you much margin for error with other conference losses, and the head to head loss requires them to lose two more. I don't have a problem thinking that Kentucky could be second in the East if some things break their way this year. That's not my prediction but I've got them third.
Sell. That's a little aggressive for me. It's really hard to go 7-1 in the SEC regardless of whether you're in the East or the West.
Sell. I'd be just fine if he proves me wrong but I'll need to see the stay on the field factor there. Chris Rodriguez is definitely going to be eating up a lion's share of the backfield work and JuTahn McClain may well be nipping at his heels from all the great things we've heard about him.
It wouldn't surprise me if he has a really good season and his best yet, though.
Those numbers are a little high for me but I don't think it's hard to believe that Gatewood could win the starting job. That's within the realm of possibility. I think it's more likely that he would need to take the job over after Levis starts the season as QB1.
Not crazy at all to think that about Rodriguez. I don't think you can assume he's going to get 1,200 or anything like that. There's a system change for the line and for him, with some personnel losses up front. But it wouldn't be odd to see him have a rare statistical season at UK. That's saying something given the numbers the backs have put up in recent years.
As I responded above, it's harder for me to see UK winning the East without beating UGA. Their schedule seems somewhat favorable this season.
That's a really interesting suggestion. It wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility if Darian Kinnard became one and then someone else, perhaps Dare Rosenthal if it happens, could climb up in that conversation. I don't think I would predict that happening as the most likely scenario but I really like it as a hot take point of conversation.
Rodriguez is going to be in that handful of running backs who have a legitimate opportunity to hold that honor at the end of the season. He's going to get the carries and he really does almost all of his work on the ground when he's in the game, so that helps the rushing yards. He'll be in the mix there.
Wan'Dale Robinson could definitely become that, I think especially if it's in an all-purpose role. That's not to say he's going to be carrying the ball much, but also the return game and just featured in a unique way.
That's a lot more passing yardage than I would predict.
Wan'Dale could very well be a strong contender for the Hornung Award, which Lynn Bowden won two years ago. Heisman contender is a bit of a high bar. In spite of this past year's winner you typically have to be a quarterback to garner that kind of recognition for the award.
Levis is the quarterback but he hasn't even been declared the starter. That's a strong take.
Buy the first part, sell the second. Last year was an absolutely brutal schedule, and even more brutal than some SEC West teams ordinarily face. Before last season someone in the program told me that they were hoping to draw LSU as the other West opponent. That could have been another win. They got Alabama instead. It really was a brutal schedule.
I wouldn't predict them to do better than 2018 but the schedule allows for that to be a real possibility.
I would say Kinnard and Dare Rosenthal could be auditioning for that. Not sure who the third would be as first round is a very high bar.
I'm obviously not going to predict that but I like the take because it's humorous and highlights how that series has gone for so long.
I'd scale it back a tad and say they could very well be 4-0 going into the game against Florida in Lexington. They still have to beat Missouri and South Carolina before that. I expect they'll go no worse than 1-1 in those two games (if they're 0-2, that's a problem).
I like it. It wouldn't shock me if Ali leads the team in receiving yards. I do think they have a few weapons between those guys you've mentioned, especially if Chauncey Magwood or Dekel Crowdus can step up as a quality third.
Playing off a previous take, if they can be 4-0 going into Florida then that will be interesting. If somehow they're 5-0 after that game then it's inevitably going to be a topic of conversation. I think you can make a strong case they're a little underrated at least according to some that I've seen.
One of the more interesting takes I've seen. I don't know that there will be a lot of havoc based on the personnel we're seeing so it's going to have to be about contain and keeping everything in front against some opponents. However, the schedule makes a big difference so that might affect those sack and TFL stats.