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Published Jul 28, 2022
Best and worst case scenarios for UK football in 2022
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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@RowlandRIVALS

Spend any time reading sports media and talk of "ceilings" and "floors" will soon become a part of the conversation.

Of course, these are always subjective judgements, but that kind of talk can have some value if it's the result of a comprehensive analysis of what we know, leaving room for what we don't.

Here's a take from CI publisher Justin Rowland on Kentucky's best and worst case scenarios with the 2022 season approaching.

Best case scenario and reasons for optimism

Georgia is the overwhelming favorite in the SEC East. Not quite the favorite that Alabama is in the West, but not far off if you go by the media voting last week. Kentucky was picked to finish second, behind only the Bulldogs, and less than a handful of individuals picked the Wildcats to win the East.

It's not impossible to think that Kentucky could upset Georgia. That hasn't been the best matchup for Kentucky (or most teams) in recent years, but the game is in Lexington and Will Levis was 32/42 and good enough to keep UGA's defense at least off balance at times last year.

In a realistic best case scenario for UK, leave room for the possibility that the Cats win that game as a 10-14 point underdog. Whether Kentucky is good enough to pull that upset and avoid stubbing its toes a time or two in other games, well, that's a big ask.

UGA is the East's favorite for a reason but there is a strong case for Kentucky as the second best team in the East, and possibly in the conversation for third in the conference overall. Kentucky has won 10 games in two of the past four seasons, but it hasn't gotten to 10 wins in the regular season yet.

Levis gives Kentucky the chance to get to 10 regular season wins for the third time in program history (1977, 1951). While he is not generally being listed as a preseason All-SEC quarterback, he certainly has the potential to be one of the best players in the nation's best league, and quarterback is where you want that difference maker to be.

It's not crazy to imagine Chris Rodriguez playing for most of the season, the Big Blue Wall easing into the Zach Yenser era seamlessly, and the defense playing its typically sound football while turnovers tip in the right direction.

Not many college football programs have a 1-2 punch like Levis and Rodriguez in the backfield. Couple that with UK's proven physical identity on both sides of the ball and its penchant for strong early season starts under Mark Stoops and this is a team that could find itself in the national spotlight at some point with the right early season wins.

There's tremendous depth at linebacker, the secondary could be upgraded if a transfer or two pans out, and that banner 2020 recruiting class on the defensive line is coming of age.

While Wan'Dale Robinson will be impossible to replace in his ability to stretch himself in pivotal moments, that is ultimately offset by a deeper receiver room and Levis' advancements as a quarterback.

UK has an established track record of taking care of business against South Carolina, Missouri, and Vanderbilt in the East, with Mississippi State traveling to Lexington this season. Louisville has not been a problem in the three most recent meetings between these programs and that could continue this year.

Put it all together: Manageable schedule, one of the nation's top returning rushers working behind an outstanding interior offensive line, a big-time quarterback prospect throwing to a receiver room that needs to prove himself but has some interesting new faces.

Realistic Best Case Verdict: 10-2 regular season, New Year's Day Bowl

Worst case scenario and reasons for concern

Kentucky fans are rightfully excited about the possibilities, but that doesn't mean the Cats are a lock to have another special or memorable season, now that Mark Stoops has raised the bar for the program. It only takes a couple of games swinging the other way on a play or two for your slim SEC margin for error to rear its ugly head.

Will Levis returns to much fanfare but many SEC writers and pundits have him closer to a middle of the pack than top tier quarterback. That's very much up for debate, but it does speak to some areas of improvement for No. 7 in blue and white. There were too many turnovers last season at times and more importantly, he won't have Wan'Dale as a pressure valve. When Kentucky needed someone to go make a play to beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, it was largely Wan'Dale's outstanding individual effort that won out. He's gone, leaving UK and college football watchers wondering where the explosiveness and receiving production is going to come from.

Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key, and others will be counted on to make a difference, but are they ready to go win one-on-ones against the best defensive backs the Cats will see on the schedule?

Chris Rodriguez's status is still up in the air and while we won't speculate about a potentially lengthier absence, as that chatter hasn't been making the rounds for a while, he did have a severe case of fumbling issues at inopportune times last year. What if that continues?

The Big Blue Wall is strong up the middle no matter how you slice it, but Yenser is breaking in two new tackles who have no starting experience. They're tasked with protecting Levis, and if one or both of those spots proves very troubling it will affect the offensive output and potential.

Defensively, Kentucky appears deep and strong at linebacker but there are questions on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Octavious Oxendine is coming off an injury while Abule Abadi-Fitzgerald, Marquan McCall, and Josh Paschal have all moved on. Paschal was the biggest difference-maker for last year's defense and that's a lot of talent to lose in those outgoing players. Those still in Lexington are younger and do have strong pedigree but have to prove themselves now.

The secondary struggled mightily in Kentucky's three consecutive losses against Georgia, Mississippi State, and Tennessee last year. UK hit the transfer portal hard but aside from Keidron Smith it's hard to tell how much it will be able to count on from the players who have just arrived.

Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida will probably all be Vegas favorites against Kentucky based on the fact of the last two of those games taking place on the road. Missouri on the road has been a tough game recently and comes in another potentially tricky spot. Mississippi State handled the Cats in Starkville last year and it's always possible that Mike Leach's team comes out hitting on all cylinders. Louisville will have this game circled and South Carolina is getting a lot of early season publicity with a solid first season under Shane Beamer and the arrival of Spencer Rattler.

Kentucky's floor in 2022 appears much higher than it typically has been in the past, but there are still enough competitive opponents that if a couple of things go south, it could result in a UK fan base with higher expectations wondering.

Realistic Worst Case Verdict: 7-5, minor bowl

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