Around the SEC: Bulldogs put playoff hopes on line against Gators
We have reached Halloween weekend and there are coaches on the hot seat all over the league. We could be entering an offseason where four or five programs could be looking for new head coaches and the only way to know how it plays out is seeing how these next five weeks develop.
This week in the SEC, we have the Cocktail Party leading the way for some very interesting matchups in the SEC. Just like always, we’re here to break down all the action.
Game of the Week: #3 Georgia vs. Florida
For nearly the 100th time, the Dogs and the Gators will be doing battle in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” (I will always call it this). Since 1933 (except for 1994 and 1995 due to Gator Bowl renovations) this game will take place in Jacksonville. This series has tended to give us many upsets over the years and usually likes to get very weird.
Georgia is unbeaten and has won their four conference games each by at least 25 points. The Bulldogs are averaging 37.6 points per game and this ground attack is averaging 282.9 yards per outing. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel lead the way, but true freshman D’Andre Swift has been the story. The Philadelphia native is averaging over eight yards per carry and 51.2% of his runs have gone for at least five yards. He’s the future in Athens. True freshman quarterback Jake Fromm continues to be very solid and this passing attack keeps getting better.
Kirby Smart may have the best defense in the country in year two and this group is making plays all over the field. You know this scheme is going to stop the run, but this secondary is really playing well even though the pass rush has not been great. Roquan Smith leads the way and he may be the best inside linebacker in the country.
Florida enters this spot after consecutive home losses by a combined three points and offense has been this group’s biggest issue. This unit has only put up 30-plus points more than once this season and redshirt freshman quarterback Feliepe Franks is really struggling. The young gun has thrown for under 200 yards in four consecutive games as the coaching staff just has zero confidence in him. The numbers aren’t bad, but Franks just isn’t receiving opportunities. It is important to note he is taking a lot of sacks and that is holding the offense back. The rushing attack has been pretty good for the Gators as true freshman Malik Davis is averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has produced at least 90 rushing yards in five straight games.
There’s no doubt that this Florida defense has regressed but this group is still pretty good. Outside of the opener, no one has scored more than 30 against these Gators. The run defense has been up and down while the pass defense has been consistent. The Gators have yet to recover a fumble and their biggest weakness has been the inability to produce turnovers. Middle linebacker David Reese leads the team with 53 tackles.
This series is wacky and you should usually expect the underdog to keep it close. However, Florida does not matchup well with the Dawgs. Georgia should dominate Florida’s rushing attack and Feleipe Franks will be in big trouble once the Gators are made one-dimensional. Georgia should be able to establish the run and I see the play-action passing game making some big plays. Florida is going to need to win the turnover battle and special teams play to even have a chance. I like Georgia to pull away in the fourth quarter after being challenged early.
You Also Need to Watch: Mississippi State at Texas A&M
Quietly, the Aggies and the Bulldogs are both having nice seasons as both Dan Mullen and Kevin Sumlin are making a case for SEC coach of the year honors. Each squad has a legit chance at a nine-win season and a nice bowl game. To get there they must win on Saturday night. This series is deadlocked at five games each and neither team has won a road contest since the Aggies joined the SEC.
Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs playing solid football once again as their only losses have come to Auburn and Georgia on the road. Nick Fitzgerald is leading the way as the dual-threat quarterback is putting 248 yards of total offense a game. The junior has had his struggles throwing the rock but he’s been dynamic when carrying the football. This is one of the best rushing attacks in the country as the Bulldogs are averaging 264.6 yards per game. The emergence of Aeris Williams at running back has been a game changer as the junior is averaging five yards per carry and has recorded at least 20 carries three times.
Mullen may have made the best coordinator hire of the offseason as Todd Grantham has this defense playing their guts out. S&P+ has this as the 15th best unit in the country as they’ve dominated every team they’ve played outside of the top 25. It starts up front as opponents are only putting 127 ground yards per game and are averaging under four yards per carry. The pass defense has been just as good as foes are only averaging six yards per pass attempt. Jeffrey Simmons might be the best nose man in the country. Hybrid linebacker/defensive Montez Sweat has been causing a ton of havoc against opposing defenses as this front seven is proving to be one of the best in the country.
After a very ugly second half performance against UCLA, true freshman quarterback Kellen Mond is starting to show improvement. However, the rookie played pretty poorly against Florida last week but was able to make some plays with his legs. For the season, Mond has only passed over 200 yards three times and is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt with a completion percentage around 50. This offense is very run dependent, as both Keith Ford and Trayveon Williams have playmaking ability. With superstar Christian Kirk outside at receiver, this offense is very explosive. However, if they don’t get big plays they do not score.
John Chavis has his defense playing very well this season as the Aggies have put it together the last three weeks. A&M has given up a ton of yards this season but they have been opportunistic as they’ve forced 15 turnovers. Good offenses score against the Aggies, but A&M has tended to fare well against bad ones. Armani Watts may be the best safety in the country as he has 50 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and four interceptions.
On the surface, many people will believe the Aggies have the better team because of their performance on the recruiting trail under Kevin Sumlin. However, Mississippi State has the better quarterback and defense in this matchup. The Bulldogs should be able to run it against this Texas A&M front and the Aggies will not be able to produce enough big plays to keep up. I believe Mississippi State could win this by double-digits.
Sleeper Game: Vanderbilt at South Carolina
Quietly, South Carolina handled Arkansas and Tennessee and Will Muschamp is emerging as an SEC coach of the year candidate. Jake Bentley is improving with every outing as the Gamecocks are one win away from bowl eligibility. Over in Nashville, Alabama beat Vanderbilt so bad that they have forgotten how to play defense. The Commodores have given up at least 38 points in each SEC loss and no one in the country needed a bye week more than them.
After an awesome 3-0 start that included a win over Kansas State, the bottom has fallen out for Vandy in Derek Mason’s fourth season but it’s not because of the offense. Kyle Shurmur might be the most improved player in this conference as the junior quarterback has thrown 14 touchdowns and is averaging over seven yards per attempt. All of a sudden, this Vandy passing attack is very good as Shurmur is distributing the ball to multiple receivers. The running game has taken a big step back as Ralph Webb has just not been able to get going. The senior has only ran for over 100 yards once this season as Vandy is averaging right around 92 yards per game on the ground.
In the first month of the year, this defense was one of the best in the country as they dominated their first three opponents. Ever since the Alabama debacle, it has been flat out ugly. Five opponents in a row have rushed for over 200 yards against Derek Mason’s defense and four have averaged over five yards per carry. The pass defense has been better but this is a group that is currently giving up near seven yards per play. The secondary is really talented and safety LaDarius Wiley leads the team in tackles.
The Gamecocks had to reset a little bit after losing star wide receiver Deebo Samuel for the season. South Carolina hasn’t scored more than three offensive touchdowns in a game since losing Samuel but this group is starting to find themselves. Jake Bentley is managing the game very well as South Carolina has been leaning on their defense during this stretch. Bentley hasn’t thrown an interception in three games as he’s giving this offense a shot. Bryan Edwards has emerged as the top receiving target while an injury to Rico Dowdle will give more carries to Ty’Son Williams to help bolster a struggling rushing attack.
It didn’t take long for Will Muschamp to rebuild this South Carolina defense as the Gamecocks are playing excellent football on that side of the ball. No one has scored more than 28 against Carolina as opponents are only averaging 5.2 yards per play. This group has forced 14 takeaways and has recorded 44 tackles for loss on the year. Linebackers T.J. Brunson and Skai Moore are both solid while D.J. Wonnun is one of the best defensive ends in the SEC.
It’s the biggest game of the season for Vanderbilt as they try to halt this losing skid. It’s imperative that they play well as their confidence could be shot if they’re blown out again after the bye week. Their defense should get healthy against this South Carolina offense and if the Commodores don’t turn the ball over this one will be decided in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
The Rest of the League
Outside of the games above, there are only two more conference games and Mizzou hits the road for their final non-conference contest.
It’s been an ugly season for Bret Bielema’s Hogs as they can’t stop anybody and the offense is sputtering without Austin Allen at quarterback. This week they’ll hit the road to take on Ole Miss. In Matt Luke’s Super Bowl, the Rebs were blasted by LSU and lost star quarterback Shea Patterson for the season. No one has a clue about what will happen at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
Quietly, Mizzou has been playing very good football as their offense came alive in the road loss at Kentucky. The Tigers played Georgia tough and then blasted a bad Idaho team last weekend. Now they’ll hit to road to take on a UConn team that has won two straight under Randy Edsall. Expect a lot of points and a Mizzou win. Believe it or not, the Tigers have a really good shot at getting to six wins.