3-2-1: This week in UK football
Spring break brings a temporary halt to Kentucky's spring football practice schedule but things will get cranked up again soon.
There are plenty of topics to discuss in spring football and in recruiting.
Cats Illustrated's 3-2-1 feature follows a simple format: Three things we've learned, two things we're asking and one bold prediction.
PREMIUM LINK: THE WAR ROOM (3/14) - UK trending up with top targets
SOURCES: Kentucky close to locking Marrow in through 2020
LINK: Where does Kentucky stand with the state's top 15 prospects?
WHAT WE'VE LEARNED
1. Kentucky takes on Murray State in 2018.
This was first reported by FBSchedules.com on Monday and it's a significant bit of in-state football news, even if on a practical level it's basically just UK locking in to beat down an out-of-conference opponent.
"Kentucky will host Murray State at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington on Sept. 15, 2018," Kevin Kelley wrote. "The Racers will receive a $450,000 guarantee for the game according to a copy of the contract obtained from UK via an open records request. ...
"The addition of Murray State tentatively completes Kentucky’s non-conference schedule for the 2018 season. UK is also scheduled to host Central Michigan (Sept. 1) and Middle Tennessee (Nov. 17) and travel to arch-rival Louisville (Nov. 24)."
Thus, Kentucky's football scheduling will follow a familiar course: Louisville and then three teams the Cats "should" take care of. It didn't exactly work out that way in 2016, with the Cats losing to Southern Miss as a 7-point favorite. Fortunately, in taking care of Louisville as a four-touchdown underdog the Cats undid the loss to Southern Miss, in terms of leveling out the non-conference record to the preseason expectation of 3-1.
2. UK will look for increased production from backups at linebacker.
Kobie Walker, De'Niro Laster and Nico Firios weren't going to start for Kentucky in 2017, but they could have made various levels of contributions.
Walker was widely praised by Kentucky's coaching staff before the 2016 season, and he started the season strong before injuries derailed his redshirt sophomore season. Based on what was expected from Walker last year (in preseason then-defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot said he may need Walker to play "a lot"), he could be considered the biggest loss at linebacker.
Laster was a player who could provide depth at multiple positions. Firios started last season as Courtney Love's primary backup but lost that job to Kash Daniel over the ensuing months.
Those three recent offseason departures don't exactly create a void at linebacker, but they do increase the opening for some of the newer players in the program who are hoping to work their way onto the field. Not long ago Mark Stoops said that in addition to wanting Josh Allen and Denzil Ware to take their games to the next level, the program needs to develop more depth behind those players.
Jordan Bonner and Jaylin Bannerman could make more of an impact this year, and the departures mentioned earlier don't really affect their playing time. But it could make it easier for others like Roland Walder, Jamar Watson and even Eli Brown (who was going to play a lot anyways) to get on the field more often.
The transfers are a sign that Kentucky's starters are firmly entrenched as their primary players at the position more than being a sign that Kentucky has great proven depth at linebacker. The transfers don't hurt too much, but they do mean young players have to step up more in 2017.
PREMIUM LINK: A top Kentucky offensive tackle target is expected to visit Lexington next week.
3. Recruiting momentum on the uptick again.
Recruiting momentum comes and goes in waves and sometimes it's unpredictable, not necessarily related to what happened last year on or off the field. Kentucky definitely had 'the big mo' at the end of the last recruiting cycle, landing a ton of commitments from between the start of December through Signing Day.
Fortunately for Kentucky, that momentum has carried over to the 2018 class. That's fortunate, in part, because Kentucky has a lot of open scholarships to fill in this class and it's important to start picking up commitments sooner rather than later. Mission accomplished with what's happened over the past month (UK now has five commitments, which is a good number for this time of year). But it's also important because there aren't many in-state players that Kentucky would move on this year.
What are the causes of the recruiting momentum right now? And what are the fruits of it? It's really a cycle at this point, and tough to distinguish between cause and effect.
Getting a big-time quarterback on board early helps. Then, landing an eager and energetic recruit-recruiter in Alex Reigelsperger helped even more. Eddie Gran's work in Florida is helping (he's got two already). And now, having four-star Brenden Bates on board will help even more.
UK's in good shape with elite recruits like Xavier Peters and Blue Smith, and they're bringing in top targets like Darian Kinnard, Rocky Shelton and others on campus in the weeks ahead for the spring.
And most recently, as Cats Illustrated first reported on Monday, Vince Marrow's looming extension through 2020: That'll make recruiting in Ohio and at places like Good Counsel in Maryland even easier. Negative recruiting tactics against Kentucky in recent years have taken two primary forms: Telling recruits that you can't win at Kentucky (the bowl game helps blunt that critique) and telling recruits in Ohio that Marrow won't be around (this extension helps).
WHAT WE'RE ASKING
1. What happens this weekend with Jarren Williams?
Kentucky's 2018 quarterback commitment, Jarren Williams, continues to see his stock soar. Ole Miss offered the 6-foot-3, 205-pound prospect from Lawrenceville (Ga.) Central Gwinnett on Tuesday.
Cats Illustrated also reported on Tuesday that Williams is expected to visit LSU this weekend. The Tigers have their first big junior day event of the year in Baton Rouge on Saturday, and that's when we've heard Williams is supposed to be in town.
LSU has not offered but this is obviously a sign that Ed Orgeron's program is interested on some level.
The good news for Kentucky is that Williams has held to a steady course. He's said that he's solid and that UK fans need not worry. He visited Tennessee recently and came away from Rocky Top saying that he's still solidly on board with the Cats. It will be interesting to see if Williams just visits LSU this weekend or if he might stop off at Ole Miss as well, since they just offered.
It's 'hold your breath' time on the Williams front, because he's likely to shut recruiting down after the spring, when he's taking these other visits. If he's still solid with Kentucky by the end of next month or so then the Cats could be locked in with one of the South's top quarterbacks.
2. Who steps up when spring practice resumes?
Some of the players that Cats Illustrated has reported on as having strong starts to spring practice include: wide receivers Dorian Baker and Blake Bone, tight ends Greg Hart and Justin Rigg, center Bunchy Stallings, and many of the stars of the defense including Jordan Jones, Mike Edwards and Derrick Baity.
But we've only managed to get through a part of the spring practice season, so there's a lot of time left for players, both young and old, to make their mark.
In an ideal scenario we'd start to get good news trickling out about Kentucky's defensive line. If we start hearing that players like Adrian Middleton, T.J. Carter or Kordell Looney are really stepping up then that could be a sign that Derrick LeBlanc's first defensive line unit is already moving in the right direction - and that defensive line is the biggest question mark facing Kentucky in 2017.
ONE BOLD PREDICTION
UK lands several more commitments this spring.
But who?
In an ideal world that would mean Smith, Peters, Kinnard, Shelton and some other combination of big-time targets who have already visited Kentucky or plan to in the weeks ahead. It probably won't be all of them, but it's safe to assume that the Cats are likely to get some of their top targets by the end of the spring - or perhaps by the time of the spring game less than a month from now.
How many commitments will Kentucky have going into the summer? That's tough to say, but it could well be more than they've ever had after the spring during the Mark Stoops era. Given the depth of talent in Ohio this year, where Kentucky stands with a lot of quality players, and the number of players from Florida who are planning to visit this spring (not to mention several guys in the DMV and some Michigan recruits who have already visited), the Cats are set up well to continue to build their momentum in the next four weeks leading up to the spring exhibition in Commonwealth.