The first game of Kentucky's season did not go as fans hoped though for more than half the contest it appeared as though the Wildcats had a shot.
There's a lot of football yet to be played and the team is very much a work in progress but it's time for another edition of the Cats Illustrated 3-2-1: Three things we learned, two things we're asking, one bold prediction.
THREE THINGS WE LEARNED
Kentucky can play with most teams if it doesn't beat itself.
The Wildcats are capable of playing sound defense and can execute a conservative and physical offense.
First, that offensive game plan. In the first half the vast majority of Terry Wilson's throws were behind, at, or within two yards of the line of scrimmage. It makes sense that this would be the game plan for a number of reasons.
Kentucky is built around its physical offensive line so the running game had to be the emphasis. Wilson was shaking off a lot of rust and needed to be set up to succeed. UK's backs are better than their wide receivers. Auburn was breaking in a lot of new faces near the line of scrimmage.
The Wildcats executed this power offense with precision early in the game, marching down the field for a long scoring drive capped by a big run by Kavosiey Smoke. They racked up 234 yards of total offense in the first half, the vast majority via conservative run plays by backs and Wilson, and simple throws. The 'Cats were 12 of 19 on third down. Normally that produces more than 13 points. Kentucky held the ball for 36 minutes.
If Kentucky can do that against Auburn, they can do that against most teams.
Putting what Auburn did well aside (and the Tigers did some things Kentucky was not prepared to counter with its skill players), Kentucky had a big hand in beating itself. The failed fake punt, Terry Wilson's interception at the end of the first half, and the unforced fumble in the second half turned a very close game into one with breathing room for Gus Malzahn's team.
If Kentucky can simply execute that simple game plan with fewer mistakes that will make this team a lot better. Of course, not making mistakes over 60 minutes against great athletes is easier said than done. But that nearly 100 yard advantage in the first half against a very talented team should convince everyone that Kentucky can play with anyone.
The defense is more likely to be good than great.
Coming into this season a lot of people looked at Kentucky's defense and noted the number of returning starters and contributors, the percentage of production back from last year, and saw that there didn't seem to be any glaring holes. Then when you factored the defensive numbers from last year and the fact that Davonte Robinson returned and Kelvin Joseph gained his eligibility, hopes were understandably high.
On the surface the defensive numbers weren't all that bad. Auburn only rushed for 90 yards, Bo Nix passed for less than 250, yet another opponent failed to score more than 30 points, and the Tigers' 29 points were aided by several Kentucky turnovers.
But under the surface and according to the eye test some other things were undeniable. Kentucky was facing an offensive line with four new starters and the 'Cats only had one sack and four tackles for loss. When Bo Nix was pressured he wasn't pressured into bad or dangerous throws. The secondary which produced such great pass defense numbers last season struggled to contain the trio of Seth Williams, Anthony Schwartz, and Eli Stove. Bo Nix found running room for timely gains on the ground. The tackling was far from perfect.
What seemed apparent was Kentucky has a lot of SEC caliber players on defense, but it's not clear if the Wildcats have a lot of game-changers, or players who will go out and force turnovers.
Remember that last year Kentucky's defense didn't really take things to another level until later in the year when things began to click for Jamin Davis and a number of other players who elevated their games. Maybe that will happen this season. With an all-SEC schedule there just isn't as much margin for error.
While the original hope might have been that this defense could be great, perhaps we should downgrade the expectation to being good in that all-SEC context.
The good news is not a lot of teams on Kentucky's schedule have the assortment of skill position players that Auburn has.
UK needs more big play ability on offense.
Having laid out some of the positives for the offense, it was evident that Kentucky needs more big play ability on the offensive side of the ball (and arguably on the defensive side, but that's another issue).
This has been an issue for the offense most years over the past decade with the exception of a year with Boom Williams, Jeff Badet, and others.
When your game plan is to slowly and methodically march down the field you're giving yourself less margin for error. There are fewer possessions so each matters more. There are more opportunities to make mistakes when you rely on moving the sticks a lot rather than splash plays. It's harder to score, because scoring plays often result from outstanding individual effort due to shorter fields or the length of plays.
Josh Ali was the hope at receiver coming into this year and he had one of his best games as a Kentucky receiver. Kentucky had pass plays of 40, 33, and 25 yards, so those were signs that big plays are possible with this personnel.
We're still just waiting to find the receiver who's going to go up and snatch a ball away from two defenders in the end zone, or win a jump ball in the corner against a good corner, or make several men miss en route to a long scoring play. We saw Auburn's players do that and Kentucky's need to make it happen.
TWO QUESTIONS WE'RE ASKING
Was it just a bad game for the secondary?
If you're a glass half full type you'll come out of this game saying it was a down game for the secondary and it was a bad time for that to happen, against such a good cast of receivers.
If you're a glass half empty type you might wonder if last year's numbers might have been a little deceiving, and this game serves as reinforcement of that.
It was a tough first game for cornerback Kelvin Joseph and frankly none of Kentucky's defensive backs were coming through with huge pass breakups or sterling moments. They'll have a lot to think about after a humbling performance.
Interceptions were not in abundance last season and Bo Nix's three-touchdown game was in part due to receivers having plenty of open space to run in. The struggles seemed to be both in man and zone coverage.
Kentucky still has to play Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and Mike Leach's Mississippi State team, among others, so the secondary is going to be tested repeatedly.
It would help to get more of a pass rush as well.
Ole Miss and Mississippi State are Kentucky's next two opponents and the quarterbacks for those two teams combined to pass for more than 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns against Florida and LSU respectively.
Will Terry Wilson's ball security and decision-making improve?
Terry Wilson's completion percentage at Kentucky has always been very good. He's one of the most accurate short range throwers Kentucky has had in a long time. He even throws some nice intermediate and deep balls when he has a good pocket.
About 60 or 70-percent of the time he looks comfortable executing the offense. Throwing a bit on the run, knowing when to tuck and scramble, hitting his spots.
But there were several decisions that were tough to explain unless being away from game action for so long was a factor.
Throwing the ball away on a two-point conversion didn't make sense. The fumble did not seem to be the result of anything the Auburn defender did, but more just a carelessness with the football at a pivotal point in the game. He scrambled on one second half play and slid in front of the sticks creating a needless 3rd and 1. He threw off his back foot and off balance on the interception play at the end of the first half.
Wilson needs help from his receivers and the offensive line can play better but improved decision making is something that is entirely within his power.
ONE BOLD PREDICTION
Another quarterback will see significant time in Kentucky's next game.
The Wildcats' next game is this coming weekend against Ole Miss. There's perhaps reason to be hopeful that Joey Gatewood could be ruled eligible between now and then. If he is, don't be surprised if he's a substantial part of what the Wildcats do. There might be a Gatewood package or he could enter and exit the game with regularity throughout. Even if he's not, it makes sense for Kentucky to use this "throwaway year" (it matters, but it's different) to get experience for another quarterback -- perhaps Beau Allen.
That doesn't mean anyone has soured on Wilson or that there's a quarterback controversy but this is the kind of year to experiment with things for the future.
