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Published Aug 8, 2022
2022 Opponent Preview: Ole Miss
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Justin Rowland  •  CatsIllustrated
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College football has always been a sport where every game feels like it matters more. That's in part a result of how few games are played, and also due to the format of the postseason.

It almost goes without saying that this year's game between Kentucky and Ole Miss in Oxford, Miss., will be one of the more defining contests of the season for the Wildcats.

Recent games between the Cats and Rebels have been nail biters, and both programs are SEC upstarts though with very different paths and visions under Mark Stoops and Lane Kiffin.

Cats Illustrated's march through Kentucky's 2022 schedule brings us to the fifth game of the upcoming season, and thus to a closer look at the Ole Miss Rebels.

Offense

Kiffin was hired for his ability to shape a high-powered modern college offense and that's exactly what he has done in short order. But this year he will be without quarterback Matt Corral, who commanded SEC and national headlines quite often over the past couple of seasons. Corral passed for 3,349 yards, 20 touchdowns and five picks with 614 additional yards on the ground, leading the Rebels to 33.7 points and 492 yards per game. Those are fantastic numbers any way you slice it, but Ole Miss offensive production was down from 39.2 points and 556 yards the previous year.

Corral isn't the only big-time offensive contributor Ole Miss will be without. In all, the Rebels' top four rushers are gone, including Jerrion Ealy, who also was a favored pressure valve in the passing game. Also gone are the top three receivers, including 1,000 yard receiver Dontario Drummond (8 TDs).

What Ole Miss does have to build around is a much more experienced offensive line, which should presumably be better. But the Rebels did give up 10 sacks to Baylor in a 21-7 Sugar Bowl loss.

If all that sounds dire, remember there's a reason that Ole Miss isn't being counted out to make some noise in the gauntlet that is the SEC West. Most believe Kiffin will find some way to patch together an offense that still has to be accounted for. There's also the fact that Ole Miss didn't get to play with a fully healthy Corral last year and so the change isn't as steep as some might imagine.

Jaxson Dart transfers in from Southern Cal at quarterback and he has the kind of throwing ability to put pressure on a defense, putting up solid numbers with the Trojans when he was on the field. Running back Zachary Evans was rated as one of the top recruits in the country coming out of high school and produced at a high level at TCU at the start of his college career. Jonathan Mingo, UCF transfer Jaylon Robinson, Dannis Jackson, and even former Kentucky commitment Jordan Watkins will give Dart enough of a receiving corps to cause problems for many of the Rebels' opponents and tight end Michael Trigg was at USC with Dart. He could emerge as one of the SEC's better tight ends this year.

While the offense has more questions than it did going into some weeks in recent years, it will not be a surprise if this is another strong unit that allows Kiffin to put up points all season long.

Defense

Ole Miss hasn't been to the Outback Bowl and the Sugar Bowl in consecutive years because of its defense. Two years ago the Rebels were atrocious on defense, allowing 38.3 points and 519 yards per game. The defense was almost as bad as the offense was good. While the offense took a bit of a step back last season, the defense took a step forward and only allowed 24.7 points and 420 yards per game.

The defense also returns quite a bit more production than the offense. Not only does Ole Miss bring back a good number of starters, but it brings many transfers into the program on that side of the ball as well.

Replacing Chance Campbell is the first order of business for the defense. The line should be pretty inexperienced but there's some talent there. Expect ups and downs with moments of better play than we've seen from Ole Miss in recent years, but also moments when the young guys struggle. Campbell had six sacks and led the team with 109 tackles. The good news is there's a lot of experience at the other linebacker positions. Senior Troy Brown was an All-MAC player at Central Michigan.

Cedric Johnson needs to be a playmaker again for the Rebels as the BUCK in that defense. He had 6.5 sacks and 7 quarterback hurries. One reason the Rebels were able to improve so much in the most important defensive categories last year is they were a more opportunistic defense. Ole Miss forced turnovers and sacked opposing quarterbacks 39 times.

The secondary returns most of its starters with the exception of Keidron Smith, who transferred to Kentucky. Miles Battle has the kind of length that Smith had but this is a secondary that gave up

There has been enough work done in the portal that Ole Miss may be able to play an attacking style of defense that could create more possessions for its offense, and there's enough talent that Ole Miss could be competitive enough to gives its offense a chance to win games even with new personnel, but it doesn't look like one of the West's better defenses on paper, still.

Special Teams

Jonathan Cruz will probably be replacing Jonathan Cruz as a kicker. He comes in from Charlotte where he did a solid job over his career prior to now. Fraser Masin is a newcomer handling the punting duties. Drummond and Ealy handled return duties last year but are gone now.

Matchup Analysis

When Kentucky and Ole Miss have met under Mark Stoops the games have been high scoring affairs, unlike the kind of game Stoops is more typically comfortable coaching. Going on the road, one has to assume that Kentucky's offense will need to have a good day, because the Rebels are going to get their points. Kentucky's defense does match up better with the Ole Miss offense, on paper, than it probably would have last year.

Give the UK offense an advantage against the Ole Miss defense, but protection and ball security will be very important. Expect the Ole Miss defense to throw a lot at UK's new tackles to try and fluster them on the road.

This game belongs firmly in the "toss-up" category and the most important thing is that Kentucky finishes at least 1-1 against Florida and Ole Miss, to still have a shot in the East.

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