Staff predictions for Kentucky-Alabama

The Cats Illustrated staff takes to the roundtable again, this time to discuss the Kentucky-Alabama game.

Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Kentucky needs to play turnover free football. If the Wildcats give up big plays, make it be because Alabama's players are just better. Don't have blown assignments, lots of missed tackles, etc. On offense, move the ball and have some explosive plays like they've done all season. Alabama has a great defense but Kentucky has some guys on offense who can make plays against anyone. Get the ball out to the receivers and in the hands of Boom Williams and see what happens.

Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Kentucky fans should hope to see their team compete for the whole 60 minutes, as Justin said. I think if the offense can put together some long scoring drives against arguably the best defense in the nation and the UK defense could force some three-and-outs, those would be big building blocks for the future.

T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: There's plenty Kentucky can do that would have UK fans excited for the "make or break" stretch. If the Cats don't turn the ball over, the defense makes some nice plays and forced turnovers, that would be a major positive moving forward.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: The obvious answer is to fight for 60 minutes. As some coaches would say, and have said, every play has to be a street fight.

Derek Terry, Staff Writer: In some respects, Kentucky has nothing to lose in this game. It could go out there and throw it around a little bit, but putting Johnson in situations he hasn't been in yet against Alabama could end in disaster. I think Gran sticks with what has been working in recent games and doesn't try to spice things up too much.

Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: I think he should stick to what's been working (Run-Pass Options), but he shouldn't be afraid to let Stephen Johnson sling it downfield. If Johnson can find any confidence or rhythm against the Alabama defense I believe that will do wonders for him moving forward. That being said, it is still the Alabama defense we're talking about, and I think the goals of the offense should be to gain 250 total yards and score at least two touchdowns.

T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: I don't think you change too much on Saturday. Try to establish a run game. Easier said than done against one of the best front sevens in the country, but that's how I would start the game.

Try to get the ball to Boom in space and see if Benny Snell's running style can move the chains. If after a quarter the running game is struggling, take some shots deep. I really think the RPO should have some success but worst comes to worst, try to find some one-on-one coverage and see if the big UK receivers can make some plays. Expectations are super low so any success would be a positive.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: It's an interesting question because historically, under Saban, some of the teams with the most success against Alabama have been those that have let their dual-threat quarterback have free reign to get on the edge, take some shots, spread the defense out and improvise.

Kentucky does rank very high nationally in explosive plays (30-plus yards) but so much of that was against Southern Miss and New Mexico State. I think a game plan that's too wide open is a recipe for disaster on the road in T-Town. So I'll say Kentucky ought to bring a moderately conservative game plan, focus on protection, get the ball to Stanley Williams and Benny Snell -- two of the team's brightest stars -- and occasionally take some shots hoping their receivers get back on track, even against a super-talented secondary.

All that said, it's interesting that Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze -- who has had more success against Saban recently than anyone -- has been quoted as saying that he'd recommend the Tide's opponents avoid running up the middle. Why? Because it's simply a waste of time and a waste of plays. You're not going to beat that line and those linebackers running between the tackles. For that reason I expect to see a mixture of inside-outside running plays, misdirection and the occasional trickery.

Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Kentucky has to put some sustained drives together. Alabama has an excellent offense that is going to put up points -- potentially lots of them -- so the offense has to come out and move the football. Kentucky will get into serious trouble if it allows easy scores on defense and then goes three-and-out multiple times on offense.

Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: UK has to control the time of possession and it has to win the turnover battle. If the Cats' offense can stay on the field for long drives and keep the Crimson Tide from gaining any momentum the score could be closer than some may think. Also any turnover that flips the field in UK's favor will be huge. Alabama doesn't turn it over often, so the Cats need to jump on any chance they get.

T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: As I stated before, Kentucky cannot turn the ball over. Plain and simple. Alabama is going to score. Kentucky's defense isn't good enough to hold Alabama to under 20, more likely 30 points. But if UK allows Alabama to start drives in Kentucky territory, the Tide could roll to 60.

But if Kentucky takes care of the ball and plays a solid field-position game, there's a chance for success. UK's defense has to be aggressive. If the talented young secondary finds itself in one-on-one coverage so be it, force Hurts to make some tough throws and don't give him a lot of time to think about it.

Also, being aggressive could help slow down the Alabama rushing attack. UK has nothing to lose. Be aggressive and if you give up the big play so be it, but don't allow the Tide to have seven minute possessions wearing out the UK defense on the way to seven points.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: Kentucky must avoid turnovers. When Kentucky traveled to Tuscaloosa in 2008 it was two Mike Hartline turnovers that really did the Cats in. The next year, in 2009, the Cats again played respectably -- losing 38-20 at home, though they were down 38-6 -- and it was four turnovers that led to 17 points for the Tide. Alabama has only picked off three passes this year but that's only part of the story. They've returned two fumbles for touchdowns. Ball security is going to be a major issue in this game and that's scary, given Alabama's talent, the atmosphere and Kentucky's penchant for turning the ball over so far.

The Cats must also at least hold their own in the special teams game. That's a tall order because Alabama has already returned two punts for touchdowns. The Cats' coverage units have been as good through four games this year as it has been in a really long time. This will be a great test for Matt House's unit. Grant McKinniss has done some good things but, as Mark Stoops said this week, he also got lucky with a couple of bounces against South Carolina. Given the likelihood of lots of yards and points is slim, McKinniss must be able to flip the field, avoid shanks, and produce good hang time.

Finally, on defense the Cats have to create some turnovers. As TideSports.com's Ben Jones told Cats Illustrated this week, Jalen Hurts may not be seeing the whole field yet and he sometimes locks in on receivers. That's perhaps the one promising part of this game for Kentucky, as the Cats have been outstanding at picking off passes. Create a turnover or two, get in Hurts head, and that's one way to keep things interesting for a while.

Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Denzil Ware. Ware is traveling back to his home state this weekend and will certainly be amped up to play. He had the best game of his young UK career last weekend and he'll look to continue that type of play on Saturday. I expect Ware to record at least one sack against the Crimson Tide.

Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Benny Snell. I had Benny as Kentucky's MVP last week and he proved it was a good pick. This week, despite facing Alabama, is no different. I think Snell turns in another solid outing and works his way into more carries down the road.

T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Garrett Johnson. Kentucky's going to lose, but I have a feeling the Cats will have a few nice plays on offense. Expect Johnson as the wide receiver who gets some wiggle room and makes the defense miss once he catches the ball. If a receiver finds the end zone on Saturday it's going to be Johnson.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: Chris Westry. Although Westry hasn't made a lot of big plays in 2016 he also hasn't been picked on too much. Alabama is going to key in on Stanley Williams if for no other reason than to fine-tune their defense against an elite skill player in a game that they're five touchdown favorites in, so I'm going with defense. I'll call for Westry to force a turnover and make some big plays even against the great Calvin Ridley. Westry has risen to the challenge before and he has to know that a stage of this magnitude presents an opportunity to greatly help his future NFL draft stock.

Derek Terry, Staff Writer: Alabama 45, Kentucky 7. There's no shame in getting blown out by Alabama.

Josh Ellis, Staff Writer: Alabama 51, Kentucky 13. Kentucky's defense has no answer for the Crimson Tide offense and on the other side of the ball it's hard to imagine UK having many explosive plays.

T.J. Walker, Basketball Recruiting Analyst: Alabama, 42, Kentucky 20. I actually think UK's offense will have a decent outing on Saturday, but UK's defense will have no answer for the Tide. As long as Kentucky stays healthy the Cats shouldn't hang their head on getting blown out by Alabama.

Justin Rowland, Publisher: Alabama 48, Kentucky 10. The Cats have averaged 4.57 points in 21 road games against Alabama all-time (although since 1990 the Cats have averaged at least double-digits). Alabama's defense is just too fast, too powerful and too relentless for Kentucky to generate much offense. While Hurts hasn't yet been consistent he does have a great supporting cast and an offensive line with a major advantage against a Kentucky defensive line that improved significantly against the Gamecocks. The separation will come from big plays by Alabama's defense and special teams, through turnovers, returns and field position.